how long before variance kicks in?

[Masterplan]

spent the last 2 days playing at party in an effort to get some money for xmas using 10% of my virgin winnings as a base roll (£16) after cashing out £16.50 later that day my stats for the last 2 days play are as follows: yesterday

game_level	total_hands	vol_saw_flop	saw_flop_sb	co_folded_sb	co_folded_bb	att_steal	co_pct_wsf	total_won	bb/100 hands	sd_pct	co_sd_win	pf_raise	rake_in_game_won	jp_cont
NL $25	454	43.6123	32.716	0	0	64.1509	32.6087	89.8	39.5595	140.9938	35.022	21.5859	19.65	0

today

game_level	total_hands	vol_saw_flop	saw_flop_sb	co_folded_sb	co_folded_bb	att_steal	co_pct_wsf	total_won	bb/100 hands	sd_pct	co_sd_win	pf_raise	rake_in_game_won	jp_cont
NL $25	814	44.226	38.3275	0	0	68.0412	25.4545	84.54	20.7715	134.5455	29.9754	17.6904	37.3	0

i realise that 1250 hands is relatively small, but with my bb/100 so high, how bad can the variance be when it kicks in? i had a set outflopped by a higher set a few times today, and various other associated beats. but still managed over 20bb/100. would also be nice to get some feedback on the overall stats of these figures, as i'm sure theres a hole that needs plugging somewhere :) edit: it kicks in right now, started another sessions, JJ vs TT on a T high flop :/ AK(KKKAQ) vs QQ(QQQKK). 20 hands, 2 buyins gone

[mrmuzeman]

Re: how long before variance kicks in? A great winning player can break even over about 25,000 hands so the answer is a LONG LONG time. Variance is greatly underestimated by most.

[guesswest]

Re: how long before variance kicks in? Will second muze, variance is hugely underestimated, even by a lot of full-time cash players. There was a discussion about this on 2+2 a while ago...it's going to vary by game, table size, limit etc. But for full table NL Hold'em 100,000 hands is a good (fairly conservative) estimate of the point at which you'll start to get a real picture of how much of a winning/losing player you are and what your real hourlies are. Not suggesting you aren't a winning player, but 1250 just isn't close statistically significant - you need a way bigger number to get a useful picture.

[Masterplan]

Re: how long before variance kicks in? precisely why i was asking, thx for the replies :)

[xmascoming]

Re: how long before variance kicks in?

A great winning player can break even over about 25' date='000 hands so the answer is a LONG LONG time. Variance is greatly underestimated by most.[/quote'] I'm down the last 500,000 hands but who gives a shit? :clap

[Jannieb]

Re: how long before variance kicks in?

I'm down the last 500' date='000 hands but who gives a shit? :clap[/quote'] Then maybee it is not varians;)