Contrary System (US Sports based)

[Yomica]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) 6/6 in my country because local bookies counts the end of the game after 48 min. But it doesn't matter. I have 1 serious question - Valiant, is it time for closing your thread?

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Originally Posted by Valiant23 Sacramento have won 3 ATS* Chicago Bulls(+2.5) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.9 BetDirect *Statfox says W-P-W but the Push was on a 7pt game. The best I got was 5 and so Sacramento won. 10pts staked :hope 1 loser Current bank:1202.80 Total staked:2760 Number of bets:276 Winning bets:147 Losing bets:120 Push bets:9 Strike rate:53.26% Yield:7.35% Profit (or Loss):202.80

Orlando have lost 3 ATS San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic(+6.5) @ 1.95 VC bet :D Toronto have won 4 ATS LA Lakers(+4.5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.9 Paddy Power :D LA Clippers have lost 3 ATS LA Clippers(+1.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.93 Expekt :D Memphis Grizzlies have lost 3 ATS Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies(+1.5) @ 2.00 Betfair :D Miami Heat have won 3 ATS Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers(-2.5) @ 2.02 Betfair :D Chicago Bulls have lost 3 ATS Chicago Bulls(+1.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.93 Expekt :( 6 x 10pt bets :hope

5 winners 1 loser 60pts staked 98pts returned Total staked:2820 Number of bets:282 Winning bets:152 Losing bets:121 Push bets:9 Strike rate:53.90% Current bank:1240.80 Profit (or Loss):240.80 Yield:8.54% Why would I close this thread Yomica? I'm learning, having fun and making a bit of money too.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Charlotte have lost 3 ATS Charlotte bobcats(+10) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 Expekt Utah have won 3 ATS New York Nicks(+7) @ Utah Jazz @ 1.92 Expekt Sacramento have won 4 ATS Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics(-4) @ 1.92 Coral 3 x 10pt bets :hope

[Dominator]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Well it would be good for my ego to think this system is affecting prices but I know of only one that does so, and that is Slapdash's System ( :notworthy ). I would be very surprised if UK bookmakers do change their markets on the basis of this thread over the expertise of the Vegas linemakers, who I believe lead the way in setting the lines and the others follow.

Belive it or not, but there is no doubt that someone have started using your system with big money moving the opening line every day. What this means is that by the time the UK bookies post their line, it have already moved alot, so anyone betting these on game day is betting into alot worse spread, compared to just 1 week ago. If we look at last night plays. Anyone betting the plays on the opening spreads would have gone 6-0 or 5-0-1, since Bulls opend in +2.5, but closed in +1 and lost by 2. Lakers opend in +4 and +4.5 and closed +3.5 at many places(lost by 4). So betting early got you 6-0, betting too late got you 4-2. Big difference longterm! Today 3 plays you could have gotten alot better last night too. Charlotte started in +10.5 1.95, NY Knicks +8 1.95 and Seattle -2.5 1.95.. All opening prices from Pinnacle. So as you see, the spreads you get now due to the system's success is far worse than earlier.. This is why I doubt it will last, and why people want you to stop posting the plays :)

[Yomica]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Why closing? To explain something like this with my english, hm, but... In my country we have few good betors(?) who publish their opinion in their blogs. When 3 or 4 of them publish same bet we can see quick response of bookies with great downtrend (from 1,5 to 1,25, for example). I didn't sure if bookies learn this, but obviously many people play. That's my fear. If many, many people are starting with your bets what will be? Maybe I'm overacting but thinking your system is ingenious.

[Yomica]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Yes, thnx Dominator. I didn't see earlier his post. He explained better and even he saw quicker and worse scenario - not many player with small stake, but few big players. That's it.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Thanks guys for your explanations! :ok I must be honest I am a little naive in matters such as these. However I am a poker player who is happy to finally add something to the sports betting side of this forum. They can adjust the lines but how far can they go before they lose money on the opposite market?

[A3ke]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Charlotte have lost 3 ATS Charlotte bobcats(+10) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 Expekt Utah have won 3 ATS New York Nicks(+7) @ Utah Jazz @ 1.92 Expekt Sacramento have won 4 ATS Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics(-4) @ 1.92 Coral 3 x 10pt bets :hope

Hi, With Utah ATS+3 and New York ATS+2, i think this shouldn't have been a selection, or am i wrong?

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Nope you are absolutely right. :$ :$ :$

Charlotte have lost 3 ATS Charlotte bobcats(+10) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 Expekt :( Utah have won 3 ATS New York Nicks(+7) @ Utah Jazz @ 1.92 Expekt :D Sacramento have won 4 ATS Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics(-4) @ 1.92 Coral :( 3 x 10pt bets :hope

1 winner 2 losers 30pts staked 19.20pts returned Total staked:2850 Number of bets:285 Winning bets:153 Losing bets:123 Push bets:9 Strike rate:53.68% Current bank:1230.00 Profit (or Loss):230.00 Yield:8.07%

[Dominator]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Thanks guys for your explanations! :ok I must be honest I am a little naive in matters such as these. However I am a poker player who is happy to finally add something to the sports betting side of this forum. They can adjust the lines but how far can they go before they lose money on the opposite market?

They're adjusting the lines just as much as they need to get it back close to a 50/50 spread situation on these steak plays. And I belive they have done that by now, since they are all now at a spread that is 1 to 1 1/2 points worse than just a couple of weeks ago. Todays plays already moved by 1 to 1 1/2 points, so anyone who have not already taken them is betting into a too inflated line considering the edge you had on this system earlier. Your edge have not been big enough to beat a spread that is 1 to 1.5 pts bigger I think. I might be wrong - since I been that before :) But my guess is that this system is now dead due to the big masses betting the plays forcing the opening lines to be adjusted too much to keep an edge.. I made a nice pot of money on this while it lasted, thanks for that ;) I'll jump off the train here though, and just watch from the sideline how it goes the next 50-75 plays, since I do feel pretty sure that the edge is gone.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) First of all I see that although Sacramento were at Seattle last night, they are playing each other again tonight in Sacramento. Technically it is a pick and I'll include it in my selections, however if anyone chooses to ignore it I understand. Indiana Pacers have lost 3 ATS (Clippers W1) LA clippers @ indiana Pacers(-4.5) @ 1.94 Corals Chicago Bulls have lost 4 ATS (Phoenix L1) Chicago Bulls(+9) @ Phoenix @ 1.91 10bet Sacramento have won 5 ATS (Seattle L1) Seattle Supersonics(+5.5) @ Sacramento @ 1.9 Premierbet. 3 x 10pt bets :hope Dominator, thanks for that but I'll carry on playing. As long as it stays above the break even mark of 52.6% I'm happy. ;)

[Mr. B]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hi Valiant, Just sharing an useful site... take a look: http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/stats.htm It is very good to check the ATS streaks. BOL

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Hi Valiant, Just sharing an useful site... take a look: http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/stats.htm It is very good to check the ATS streaks. BOL

Cheers BangB it looks decent enough. :ok

First of all I see that although Sacramento were at Seattle last night, they are playing each other again tonight in Sacramento. Technically it is a pick and I'll include it in my selections, however if anyone chooses to ignore it I understand. Indiana Pacers have lost 3 ATS (Clippers W1) LA clippers @ indiana Pacers(-4.5) @ 1.94 Corals :D Chicago Bulls have lost 4 ATS (Phoenix L1) Chicago Bulls(+9) @ Phoenix @ 1.91 10bet :D Sacramento have won 5 ATS (Seattle L1) Seattle Supersonics(+5.5) @ Sacramento @ 1.9 Premierbet. :D 3 x 10pt bets :hope

All three won outright too. 3 winners 0 losers 30pts staked 57.5 pts returned Total staked:2880 Number of bets:288 Winning bets:156 Losing bets:123 Push bets:9 Strike rate:54.17% Current bank:1257.50 Profit (or Loss):257.50 Yield:8.94%

[A3ke]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hi all, I've been checking the figures for the entire season and came up with following results: Included W2/L2 Streaks: Number of Bets: 426 Winners: 225 (52,82%) Losers: 192 Push: 9 Excluded W2/L2 Streaks: Number of Bets: 181 Winners: 106 (58,56%) Losers: 71 Push: 4 This sounds very interesting, isn't it? When i don't exclude ATS-2 against ATS+2, i even have 59,18% Strike Rate.

[Dominator]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Bad day I choose not to follow the bets :)

[OLeg]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Wasn't Clippers +8,5 a play yesterday? Detroit have won W6 ATS, now 7....

[OLeg]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Ok, if I get this system right todays bets are: NJ 3W - SA 2L Play: SanAntonio -5 NO 3W - Memphis 1L Play: Memphis +1 (or Memphis ml with better odds) LAL 3L - NY 1L Play: Lakers -6 Please correct me if I'm wrong. GL :hope

[vitalyo]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Valiant23 I found this article on the same forum that you use for nba stats. This maight help you to improve system. The grind continues in the NBA where all teams have passed the midway point of the season and all but a select few All-Stars can take a few days to relax and kick back in the coming weeks. With this many games having been played the opportunity exists to start to look for profitable situations that can occur. The thoughts turned to are NBA teams motivated to play a road game after losing consecutive home games? The natural inclination would be they are, as coaches and players have to face the local media and explain how the team lost on the home court even if they had back to back games with Phoenix and Dallas. One would expect the competitive juices to flow and return to action with better performances, be it in the role of favorite or underdog. Thus far their have been forty instances this exact situation has happened. Of this number only seven times has any team been favored after dropping a pair of games losing at home. The logic is in position, since the very best teams in the league are unlikely to lose back to back home games. The second tier of teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Houston and Utah are all teams that could be favored after losing at home. Any of the rest of the clubs in the NBA are almost without question going to be underdogs hitting the road given also recent performances. In all, of the forty games played, the road team won 17 times straight up producing a 22-17-1 ATS record. Breaking this down further, a number of things are learned. Starting with the favorites, this would be one area where the road team would figure to shine when favored. In fact though the sampling is small, it still is mediocre. The teams thought to be better are just 3-4 SU and against the spread. Incidentally, twice their have games that went off as a “pick” and both times the visitor off a couple of humbling defeats bounced back and won. Place these same teams in the role of an underdog and this is where they come around and start to show a little more fight. In all 31 games have fit in the 2006-07 season. Here we have underdogs winning 14 times outright and posted a quality number in beating the line maker at 18-12-1 ATS, for 60 percent winners. As compared to those teams favored in this situation who still understand their position of being the superior team, they might not bring the same tenacity to the court because despite minor setbacks, they still have the belief whom the better team actually is. In the case of the underdog, the ever popular “us against the world” mentality can be used and as the results prove, these dogs have plenty of bite left. Not satisfied to accept a good number, the old miners cap goes on to see if even more gold was available. At this juncture the underdogs were broken into two groups, one a relatively small underdog and the other the larger variety. With a standard number of four points placed on the home team for being such, two points were added making our pooch decently well bred, with a chance to win and cover the game presumably at six or less points. The other takes on a motlier mutt appearance being an underdog of 7 or more points, meaning the dog could be expected in many cases to roll over and play dead. In the first category the shorter underdog performed about as expected with 6-8 record and 7-7 ATS mark, which was mildly disappointing. Those feeling were swiftly jettisoned when determining the play of larger road dogs. Here these NBA mongrels were a solid 8-9 SU. What was found was akin to a dog finding a box full of treats under the bed. These seemingly unsightly underdogs were a mouth watering 12-4-1 75% against the spread when catching 7 or more points on the road after dropping two straight home games. The lesson taught is never underestimate the qualities of a dog when backed into a corner, be it in real life or in sports wagering. PS .I made a good money by using your system.Now i am gonna incorporate bouth of them. If you apply your system with one above.It should prevent you from having losing week.(we have yet to see one:ok).It will be hard for bouth of them to collapse. My 2 cents. GL.

[vitalyo]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Wasn't Clippers +8' date='5 a play yesterday? Detroit have won W6 ATS, now 7....[/quote'] On 2-10-07 Detroit didn't cover -7.5 against Toronto 98-92 . Detroit won 7 SU not ATS .Detroit in the last 7 games 4W/3L against the spread You got this games right . GL.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Cheers for that article Vitalyo. :ok Basically if they have lost 2 (SU) @ home and they are a large road dog (+7?), then they are on a 75% S.R.! :eek

[Mr. B]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) You guys rock... this is impressive work from everybody... I am just not to convinced with Memphis tonight, but will stick with the profitable system. How do you evaluate if the game was a "Push"? since the spread is dif. from bookie to bookie. As I told you I use the site I mentioned earlier, and a couple of days ago it did not match your prediction.

[OLeg]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

On 2-10-07 Detroit didn't cover -7.5 against Toronto 98-92 . Detroit won 7 SU not ATS .Detroit in the last 7 games 4W/3L against the spread GL.

The website below shows that current streak of Detroit is 7W :\ http://bgdstats.vipprofits.com/nba/standings/standings.asp?campaignid=11064&bannerid=348 Next time I shall use covers instead. EDIT: forgot to mention that it is ATS streak of course. BTW what SU stand for? Some kind of moneyline?

[Mr. B]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) SU is the same as moneyline... it means Straight Up. And I agree with Vitalyo. I don´t know about the site that you mentioned, but if you go to stats sites they will give an ATS of around 7 for the game in question.

[OLeg]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

SU is the same as moneyline... it means Straight Up. And I agree with Vitalyo. I don´t know about the site that you mentioned, but if you go to stats sites they will give an ATS of around 7 for the game in question.

It is the site that you gave :D... go to NBA -> ATS Standings. Strange that they write SU streak in ATS table. Better to use covers.

[Mr. B]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Sorry, i didn´t even see which site you add posted. It is stupid to use the SU streak in the ATS section, I agree with you. Nevertheless, it is good to check a lot of stats... What is covers?

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) http://www.statfox.com/nba/gamematchup.asp This is the one I use. It takes a while to load in sometimes but it has all the stats I need. It became my bible during the NFL last year. Covers.com use their stats, so its exactly the same. ;)

How do you evaluate if the game was a "Push"? since the spread is dif. from bookie to bookie. As I told you I use the site I mentioned earlier, and a couple of days ago it did not match your prediction.

Push bets cause me more grief in NBA than NFL, and so I try to notice a push in the middle of a streak and see if the line I had quoted made it a winner or a loser, because any audit I do in the future will take its figures/results from this thread. If a Push is in the middle of a streak then personally I start counting again, so Toronto this evening are on a 1 game W streak unless my stats in the thread show different. Actually looking here shows Toronto Lost according to the line I got;

Toronto have won 4 ATS LA Lakers(+4.5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.9 Paddy Power :D

Am I the only one who found it weird not placing a bet on NBA last night? :$ :$ :$ Anyhow New Jersey have won 3 ATS (San Antonio L2) San Antonio Spurs(-7) @ New Jersey Nets @ 1.9 10bet Dallas have won 3 ATS (Milwaukee have L2) Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks(+9) @ 1.9 Bet365 New Orleans have won 3 ATS (Memphis L1) new Orleans @ Memphis Grizlies(+1) @ 1.92 Expekt New York have won 3 ATS (LA Lakers L1) New York Knicks @ LA Lakers(-6) @ 1.9 BetDirect 4 x 10pt bets=40pts staked :hope I've highlighted Memphis because personally if the team I'm backing is a 'dog of 2 pts or less I prefer taking the money line for the better price, but under the conditions of this thread its the 'spread' result thats important.

[Dices]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hi everyone,

New Jersey have won 3 ATS (San Antonio L2) San Antonio Spurs(-7) @ New Jersey Nets @ 1.9 10bet (-7) @ 1.926 pinnacle Dallas have won 3 ATS (Milwaukee have L2) Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks(+9) @ 1.9 Bet365 (+10) @ 1.943 pinnacle New Orleans have won 3 ATS (Memphis L1) new Orleans @ Memphis Grizlies(+1) @ 1.92 Expekt (+1) @ 1.980 pinnacle New York have won 3 ATS (LA Lakers L1) New York Knicks @ LA Lakers(-6) @ 1.9 BetDirect (-7.5) @ 1.971 pinnacle at the moment

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Dices, I used http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/ and they were what I chose at the time. I quote the book-maker for my own purpose. I appreciate people may try and find better lines but really don't want this thread cluttered with "I got these prices here" type posts as it could get ridiculous (and confusing for me when I come to 'score' my bets). Please don't. Thanks :ok

[Mr. B]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) I think that it is too dangerous to take the Spurs on this one... NJ can easily win it with +7 in the bag...

[Dices]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

I appreciate people may try and find better lines but really don't want this thread cluttered with "I got these prices here" type posts as it could get ridiculous (and confusing for me when I come to 'score' my bets). Please don't.

OK :ok Apollogies What spread will you calculate for the streak for the last game ( from -6 to -7.5) ? I understand that the most important thing is the idea behind the system and not the exact numbers ( spread from -5 to -5.5 ) (sometimes possitive changes, sometimes negative changes).