NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

[brewers7]

Note: I forgot to post at this forum last week and that is my bad because I meant to and basically forgot...Since I ended Week 1 about Even anyway, I'll just carry over my record so I don't have to keep separate records here...You can probably google my username and check out my picks last week if you need to...Seems like a good forum here, so I'll make it my 4th forum to post at... ################################################################ Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################################ Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection... ################################################################ Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1 ################################################################ Season To Date: 11-6, -$2 Sides: 5-2, +$52, Totals: 4-3, -$204, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50 System Plays: 0-0 ################################################################ 2 mistakes I made in Week 1 was not flat-betting and not betting on Sunday (would have had another 3-0 day)...Still a break-even week and I hope to slowly build from here... Last year my bigger bets hit a high % and my smaller bets were terrible...In Week 1, the opposite was true...Long way to go, though... I may play more opening lines this year (haven't decided), but I didn't bet Sunday because all 3 lines moved against me big-time overnight, so I passed Sunday afternoon and regretted it... Monday, November 6 San Antonio Spurs -6 -- $220 to win $200 The NBA schedulemakers gave the Spurs two 4-games-in-5-days situational spots last year (1 at Home and 1 on the Road), and ironically, the Road spot was at New York in early December...The Spurs covered that game, and the Spurs were a terrible team last season on the back-end of back-to-backs, not just for not covering, but for not even winning games...The Spurs are probably tired of hearing about it as I heard the announcers already mentioning the fact that they lost to Cleveland a few days back on a back-ender and how this is a budding "team issue" with Coach Popovich...Only Tony Parker played more than 30 minutes at Toronto yesterday (afternoon, by the way, so they made it to their NY hotel rooms at a normal hour Sunday night), and Parker played 32 minutes...I simply do not see fatigue being a factor here at all, and I would hope the Spurs can take care of this Knicks' team by more than 6 (juice was nice, so I bought it down, something I rarely do)... Chicago Bulls -5 -- $220 to win $200 Same here, a rare buy-down for me, but the juice was favorable here...The Bulls have had 2 full days to think about their 41% shooting night vs. Sacramento at Home and how they blew a 15-point lead early in the second half...Milwaukee has had 2 nice wins sandwiched around a 17-point loss to Toronto...I don't see the Bulls losing 3 straight, so hopefully they get over this number...Maybe the Bulls will learn to finish this game unlike on Friday... San Antonio/NY Knicks over 192.5 -- $101 to win $100 I wasn't going to bet this Over, but if the Spurs reached 197 yesterday at Toronto, I don't see any reason why this cannot hit 193...Knicks have yet to even have a good shooting game this season (and I doubt they will have a great one tonight), but I will take a shot here as the Spurs also reached 188 vs. Dallas, and the Mavs are playing poorly on offense thus far in this young season...In last year's game at MSG (also a 4-of-5 situational spot for SA), the game finished at 205... Good Luck...brewers7 ################################################################# Monday's Picks: Sides: 1) SA, 2) Chi, 3) Port, 4) Orl, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Utah Totals: 1) SA ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Port un, 4) Utah un, 5) GS ov, 6) Chi un, 7) Sac un ################################################################# Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ################################################################# Recent Results: Yesterday: 0-0 Last 3 days: 6-2 (+$479) Last 7 days: 11-6 (-$2) ################################################################# Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls ################################################################# Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional… #################################################################

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)... ################################################################ Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################################ Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection... ################################################################ Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1 ################################################################ Season To Date: 14-6, +$498 Sides: 7-2, +$452, Totals: 5-3, -$104, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50 System Plays: 0-0 ################################################################ No line out yet on the Miami game due to Shaq's status and I do have a pair of 4-games-in-5-days games to look at also...I will be back with some thoughts on the other games and maybe another bet if I see anything that jumps out... Tuesday, November 7 Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107 I don't know how I can bet this game any other way...I have never been a big fan of betting Unders, but I have bet Unders a LOT more in the last 5 years than in the past and feel I have become a more complete handicapper by doing so... Here is the way I look at this game from a handicapping stand-point: Atanta is 6th and Cleveland is 10th in the league (on defense) in FG% allowed, while on offense, Atlanta is 28th and Cleveland is 24th in FG%...Also, both teams have played 3 games each, and all 3 games went Under for each team...The pace of the games for these 2 teams is slow, with total shots around 140 a game for the most part... Let's break that down further: With Cleveland, they have played San Antonio, who has 3 Overs and their ONLY Under in 4 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Washington and the Wizards' ONLY Under in 3 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Charlotte and Charlotte has 2 Unders in 3 games (CLE and Memphis)... With Atlanta, they have played Philadelphia and the 76ers ONLY Under was against Atlanta in 3 games...Atlanta played the Knicks and NY's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...And Atlanta played Orlando and the Magic's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta... Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)... Good Luck...brewers7 ################################################################# Tuesday's Picks: pending...will be added in the afternoon... ################################################################# Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ################################################################# Recent Results: Yesterday: 3-0 (+$500) Last 3 days: 6-0 (+$1000) Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$498) ################################################################# Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls ################################################################# Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional… #################################################################