Out of line stats - balance out or continue??

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

I noticed a stat in the RP that was well out of line with the norm. So far, in the Scottish Div 3 only 13% of games have been draws, compared to most other leagues being around 20-25%. I checked back over the past few seasons for Scots Div 3 and got these results for draws. 05-06 = 18% 04-05 = 21% 03-04 = 23% I also checked this weeks games on Betfair and the odds in no way reflect the 13% statistic. Prices to lay the draws were 4.3, 5.4, 4.0, 4.9, and 5.7. Both the 5.4 and 5.7 are games that involve a a favourite around 1/3 so you'd expect a slightly higher draw price anyway. Even if all 5 games were 5.7, this would still suggest a 17% chance of a draw. Now my question is should we expect to see more draws from now on and see this figure balance out to the norm or should we expect the trend to continue??? If the trend continues, without drastic price changes, then it seems blind laying of draws could be very profitable.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Out of line stats - balance out or continue?? Ive thrown a few numbers around. If you assume an average lay price of 5.00 and a 15% draw rate. Laying to make £10, £9.50 after comission (assuming a 5% rate) 100 games would produce 85 winners = £807.50. 15 losers would create a lose of £600 (£40 per game) Totalling a £207.50 profit. With a total liability of £4000, this equals a yield of 5.19%.