WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 I noticed a stat in the RP that was well out of line with the norm. So far, in the Scottish Div 3 only 13% of games have been draws, compared to most other leagues being around 20-25%. I checked back over the past few seasons for Scots Div 3 and got these results for draws. 05-06 = 18% 04-05 = 21% 03-04 = 23% I also checked this weeks games on Betfair and the odds in no way reflect the 13% statistic. Prices to lay the draws were 4.3, 5.4, 4.0, 4.9, and 5.7. Both the 5.4 and 5.7 are games that involve a a favourite around 1/3 so you'd expect a slightly higher draw price anyway. Even if all 5 games were 5.7, this would still suggest a 17% chance of a draw. Now my question is should we expect to see more draws from now on and see this figure balance out to the norm or should we expect the trend to continue??? If the trend continues, without drastic price changes, then it seems blind laying of draws could be very profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Out of line stats - balance out or continue?? Ive thrown a few numbers around. If you assume an average lay price of 5.00 and a 15% draw rate. Laying to make £10, £9.50 after comission (assuming a 5% rate) 100 games would produce 85 winners = £807.50. 15 losers would create a lose of £600 (£40 per game) Totalling a £207.50 profit. With a total liability of £4000, this equals a yield of 5.19%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Out of line stats - balance out or continue?? There have been 61 games so far, with 8 draws. If the expected proportion of draws were 20%, then it's not all that unlikely that you'd get that few draws. About 11.5% of the time, there would be 8 draws or fewer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Out of line stats - balance out or continue?? 1 draw today. That was the 5.4 one (East Fife - Elgin). It was also the one I had for a home win in TC!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Out of line stats - balance out or continue?? 1 draw today. That was the 5.4 one (East Fife - Elgin). It was also the one I had for a home win in TC!!!! it was also my weekend banker with a lot of money on it :@ good luck with the thread - will watch with interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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