Betvalue, the one most important thing in betting!

[Jonne]

Tried to explain betvalue in another thread, I don't think my explanation is all that good, but that the topic was brought up, I couldn't help but wonder, how many of you guys actually think of betvalue ? (Doesen't have to be in exact percentages, but consider the price versus the chance, before you bet.) In my book it is alpha and omega to have succes in long-term betting. Quote:

Originally Posted by UXMAL187 sorry, but if you go 10/10 Birmingham.......i assume you have full trust in Birgmingham? Do you bet on this game as well, with your full stake then? Im sorry but I think you should reduce your confidence on this 1. ;)

As I write, I do not even think a Birmingham victory is the most likely outcome, but I do believe there's value in punting on them, I'll explain value down under the other quote. Quote:

Originally Posted by Grim Reaper No disrespect lads, but how do you give a strength of 10/10 when you think a team has a 57% or 59% chance of winning???? What does that make Man Utd at Crewe.......17/10?????? Like the pointers towards Villa though - looks like solid money there

Value means, that the price for a team is too big, considering how big a chance a team has of winning. If you do not play value bets, you will not make profit in the long run. Let me try to explain it a bit less cryptic :p If you have a die, and someone gives a price on the different outcomes of a roll, he gives price 1.1 if it lands on 1-5 and he gives you your money back 10 times if it lands on number 6. Now, I can't look into the future and see where it will land, but I know that there's 83,333 % chance of it landing anywhere between 1-5 and only 16,667 % chance of it landing on number 6. But the price of it landing on number 6 is much bigger than it should be, considering the chance, so there would be a LOT of betvalue on playing on number 6. Maybe you would not make a profit in the first 20 dice rolls, if you were really unlucky, but in the long run, if you keep on playing on number 6 you'd have profit, because they give too big a price considering the chance. The betvalue would be 0,16667 * 10 = 166,67 % That means, everytime you bet one unit on this, in theory you would be getting back 1,66 units, and if you play enough bets with value, in the end you will make a profit, as with the die. Let's say the die was thrown 100 times, and you had played on the 1-5 because that was the most likely result, you would have a hit rate of just about 83%!! That's 0,1 * 83 = 8,3 profit and then with 17 times lost, it's not a profit anymore, but a - 8,7 with a 100 units staked.' Had you played the 6 everytime you would have lost 83 times and won 17, that's 170 - 83 = 87 points of profit. So even though you don't think the result of the die to be 6 the most likely, you'd still play it everytime, because of the betvalue. Now, I don't differ in strenght on my bets, as I'm a flatbetter, and if I do bet in value, why not give it full strenght everytime? Because in the end it will give profit. Full strenght for me is 2-3 % of my bankroll.

[PAULM03]

Re: Betvalue, the one most important thing in betting! I think most people on PL have a sound understanding of value. Some people (mainly in S&S) take a formal approach to value, backtesting systems and the like. Others take a less formal approach, relying on other lines of research and instinct. It's a fact though that all long-term winning punters are finding value one way or another. We have two of the best examples of pure value betting you're ever likely to see, right here on the forum with Datapunter's 'red hot favourites' system and Slapdash's system. Amongst others, you should check them out:)