bowles10 Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 from tomorrow - Sat 21st October, a new Bankers thread will operate with each punters results being recorded & a rating given to each punter. Myself & Zuluwarrior will be recording the data & will post up the table as & when we can. The overall p/l of the entire thread will be calculated also. The idea of this is to bring a bit more structure to thebankers thread plus also add a little competition as the chance to be No.1 Banker on here !! Monthly banker winners will be put into the PL newsletter (if PR agrees to this!) Remember, the banker thread is for horses you really feel are the best bets of the day. Only 1 selection per day for each punter. 10pt stake for each selection settled at SP odds. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Seems a good idea mate, I am going to make an effort to post in it every day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Good call. Last two days I had a few bankers but didnt pick them til at work so couldnt post them up. All odds on but all won and thats what counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Quick question - can we post each way bankers? i.e. 5pts ew instead of 10 pts win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc from tomorrow - Sat 21st October, a new Bankers thread will operate with each punters results being recorded & a rating given to each punter. Myself & Zuluwarrior will be recording the data & will post up the table as & when we can. The overall p/l of the entire thread will be calculated also. The idea of this is to bring a bit more structure to thebankers thread plus also add a little competition as the chance to be No.1 Banker on here !! Monthly banker winners will be put into the PL newsletter (if PR agrees to this!) Remember, the banker thread is for horses you really feel are the best bets of the day. Only 1 selection per day for each punter. 10pt stake for each selection settled at SP odds. Good Luck Bowles, Completely agree mate:ok It was something I was thinking about only yesterday. However, one point....it could get like DHRC if someone is way behind going into the last week and therefore they try to find the 1 big 10/1, 20/1, 33/1 winner:unsure Maybe it is worth adding a caveat in that a certain % of your bankers must win (ie, 25%)....after all, it is a BANKERS thread which in essence means you should be picking REGULAR winners. Just a thought mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Quick question - can we post each way bankers? i.e. 5pts ew instead of 10 pts win. win only AK, big discussion today in the friday banker thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Bowles, Completely agree mate:ok It was something I was thinking about only yesterday. However, one point....it could get like DHRC if someone is way behind going into the last week and therefore they try to find the 1 big 10/1, 20/1, 33/1 winner:unsure Maybe it is worth adding a caveat in that a certain % of your bankers must win (ie, 25%)....after all, it is a BANKERS thread which in essence means you should be picking REGULAR winners. Just a thought mate. look at the Friday banker thread today Russ, big discussion held. Zulu has worked out a rating based on selections / winners etc. The important thing will be winners not prices, so 1 20/1 winner doesnt beat 5 odds on shots:ok the thread will be about winners, if people can give us 5 20/1 winners in a week, i'd marry them! Like we have said before, a banker is soemthing you do not expect to lose not a hunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc look at the Friday banker thread today Russ, big discussion held. Zulu has worked out a rating based on selections / winners etc. The important thing will be winners not prices, so 1 20/1 winner doesnt beat 5 odds on shots:ok the thread will be about winners, if people can give us 5 20/1 winners in a week, i'd marry them! Like we have said before, a banker is soemthing you do not expect to lose not a hunch. Cheers mate.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Sorry wasn't here for yesturday afternoons discussions. I'm here now, and I've seen some glaring errors in my latest formula! lol, will update as soon as I've made my selectios for the day! You raise another good point RussP, which occured to me in my ponderings too. The "Catch Up Factor" could cause sporadic picks as people hunt to make up the difference. Therefor the ratings should be calculated on a ROLLING period of a month (30 days). this means that the impact of say a 33/1 winner will only boost a PLR for 30 days before it drops off, while consistant good efforts at whatever prices can ensure consistant PLR... Be back with some more things and a proper formula (that will actually give a 0 - 100 result, not 0 - 250+ :wall ) shortly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomo14 Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Great Idea let the best banker win ;) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Ok, had a little tinker, I've been throught the threads (Fridays & Saturdays bankers, and this one), made some notes, and have come out with this so far: Banker Rules Only bets that really are the best bet of the day, one you would lump on, a banker is a bet you would not envisage losing. Only 1 bet, per punter, per day. All bets 10pt WIN bets only. Please make sure all bets posted include the Time, Course and Selection name. Starting Price will be used for all calculations. Bankers should be posted a reasonable time before the race.Punters Lounge Rating (PLR) Rules All bets placed in the banker thread (according to the banker rules) in the past 30 days will be valid and counted towards your PLR. On a daily basis, all bets placed in the bankers thread BEFORE 13:00 (1pm) will be eligable for the PLR Daily Top 5 bets. The PLR Top 5 bets will be posted shortly after 13:00 (1pm) each day. Of all the eligable Top 5 bets, the 5 bets belonging to the punters with the highest PLR calculated upto the previous day will be selected. PLR will be recalculated in the afternoon/evening following the running of all banker races for the next day. The Top 5 PLR bets and the PLR itself should not effect the running of the bankers thread in any way, except to encourage the punters to make only the most confident bets. PLR will be expressed as a whole number of 0 to 100. In the event of ties the remainder (rounded to 2 decimal places) of the punters PLR will be used to decide.PLR Rating This is my first impression, which I think could produce some decent ratings, but we will need 30 days of backdated selections and outcomes in order to get the initial ratings, otherwise they could fluctuate wildly for the first 30 days... Return Rating A number between 0 and 50 that represents the amount of return the punter has achieved. The punters Return Rate is calculated by adding together the decimal odds of all the punters winning banker bets in the last 30 days. So Let R = Total Decimal Odds of all banker winners in 30 days HitRate Modifier A number between 0 and 0.7 that represents the punters rate of winning banker selections in relation to the total selections. The HitRate Modifier is calculated as The number of winning banker selections in the last 30 days divided by the total number of banker selections in the last 30 days, multiplied by 0.7. So let H = ( Banker Wins[30 days] / Banker Selections[30 days] ) * 0.7 HotPunter Modifier A number between 0 and 0.3 that represents the punters rate of winning banker selections in the last 7 days. The HotPunter Modifier is calculated as so. First the 7 day modified hitrate is created by dividing the punters winning bankers over the last 7 days by the punters total bankers in the last 7 days. This number is then multiplied by 3 and 2 is subracted from the result. So Let 7D = ((Banker Wins[7 days] / Banker Selections[7 days]) * 3 ) - 2 If the resultant number is greater than 0 then that number, multiplied by 0.3 becomes the punters HotPunter Modifier, if the number is equal or less than 0 then the punters HotPunter Modifier is set to 0. So If 7D is greater than 0 then: Let HP = 7D * 0.3 Otherwise: Let HP = 0 What the calculation basically means in plain english is that if you achieve 66.6% Hitrate or better in 7 days you will recieve a bonus modifier proportional to the amount of your hitrate. PLR Rating A number between 0 and 100 that represents your overall rating of the punter. It is calculated by taking the Return Rating and multiplying it by the sum of the HitRate Modifier and the HotPunter Modifier + 1. So Let PLR = R * ( 1 + H + HP ) The PLR can be expressed as a whole number (###), and the remainder (rr) rounded to 2 decimal places, can be used for PLR ties... Expressed thusly: PuntersName ### (rr) Phew, what a post! I stress this is just my first shot at it. It might be a bit much but without righting it out it becomes fairly simple. Currently the modifiers are balanced at upto 30% for Hot Punters, and up to 70% for Hit Rates. I very much welcome your comments, especially from the rating system gurus!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Oh, @ PeteG40 are the bankers rules at the top of my post correct?? Are you happy with this going on alongside the de facto banker thread and your profit/loss records? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc :clap awesome stuff Zulu nice work mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Yes, this is a mint idea. Keep it up lad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc I aim to please ;), Just gathering the last 30 days selections now, geez, its hard work, gotta gather results yet too, 10 down, 20 days to go... Then I can build the spreadsheet and check these ratios I've factored... A little observation I've made is that your minimum rating will be the same as the amount of return you have in 30 days (Return @ 1pt stake). Not sure how relevent this is to the system though... Thing is as the return is judged the least important factor it has to be factored early in an equation, before multipliers have thier effect, that or it needs to be added at some point late in the equation, and if its an addition, and because its return it is harder to cap it and force the result to be 0 to 100... Made some changes to my post with all the info in too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Oh, @ PeteG40 are the bankers rules at the top of my post correct?? Are you happy with this going on alongside the de facto banker thread and your profit/loss records? Yes ZuluWarrior looks about right to me :ok ........... Looks a much better way to run the thread:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Yes ZuluWarrior looks about right to me :ok ........... Looks a much better way to run the thread:hope You'll still do the daily and rolling Profit and Loss and thread starting/commentary though? It would be a good comparison point! (17 days down, 13 left, I LUV data entry :) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Yep can do no problem mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy The effort you appear to be putting into this is undeniable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Anyone fancy helping gather some of the results? Only 5 or 6 days selections left to collate... WOOHOOOO! Finally got the last 30 days selections, that sucked a bit. On to the results.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Hey Bowles, I see you brosing this forum, R U active at the mo?? (Another small edit to the info post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Great stuff, mate!! Amazing effort you're putting .. well done :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Good work guys one thing your missing my name on there :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Awesome stuff guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc excellent Zulu, great effort BTW, i was much better in early sept!! :lol will go through this during today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Jon16, Youe not on the list because you've placed 11 bankers in 30 days, but none have won! This means your hitrate multiplier os 0 and any number times 0 is 0. Only ratings above 0 are listed. There are some 20 punters with a 0 rating. Everyone, Had a few ideas to better factor the rating, will be doing some fiddling today. If anyone wants to collect some more data for me I have data from the 21/9/06. If you want to help with some more results for better backtesting, then collect the following values: Date - Punters Name - Course - Time - Selection - Outcome - SP (as XtoX) You only need to record SP if the selection Won. Outcomes are Won Placed or Lost only. If you would like to help just PM me and I'll allocate a few days as a date range and give you an email address to send your spreadsheet. Good thing is just one extra day means another set of ratings to analyise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc Initial thoughts are the initial Return ratung should be The Sum of decimal odds MINUS the number of losses... Another idea is to redo the multipliers so that: R = ReturnRate as is, 0 to 50 H = HitRateModifier, but a number of 0 to 100 instead of a factor between 0 and 1 HP = HotPunterModifier, but a number between 0 to 50 instead of a factor between 0 and 1 PLR = ( R + H + HP ) / 2 BRAINWAVE The little light bulbs just gone off in my head, a thought occurs to me: The return of the winning bet should be reitive to the time since the win. Bear with me, what I'm saying is that as a win approches 30 days it should return to 1.00 (in decimal) oddsrelatively to its origional value. So Origional Odds10 days20 days30 days12.008.334.671.006.004.332.671.001.911.611.301.00 This has the effect of combatting the 'drop off' factor... Imagine you have a 10/1 winner, for 30 days you get a bug boost to your rating, then on day 30, despite landing another 6/1 winner your rating drops as that 10/1 drops out of the equation. The drop off factor. This way a win depreciates over time, comments?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontbegreat Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc What about this to keep track of how we're doing? Current Season Name Wins Runs % +/- Last 14 Days Name Wins Runs % +/- Last 7 Days Name Wins Runs % +/- and no ratings??...its simple & effective Just like the stats at Sporting Life Only those with winners be posted in the "Last" days...maybe even include the amount of placers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: New Bankers Thread - Rules etc What about this to keep track of how we're doing? Current Season Name Wins Runs % +/- Last 14 Days Name Wins Runs % +/- Last 7 Days Name Wins Runs % +/- and no ratings??...its simple & effective Just like the stats at Sporting Life Only those with winners be posted in the "Last" days...maybe even include the amount of placers? that will not account for the person who comes in & has a 33/1 winner like in the DHRC. The ratings will provide an equal way of comparing punters records & also gives us extra reason to improve it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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