NFL wk. 7.

[TazaD]

18-12-2 (+5.22) San Diego -5 (2.02) League: 8-1 (av. win 18.9!!) away 3+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [sD] (1-0 last season. Indi 28-3 SF @ -15!) League: 4-10-1 (Av. loss 6.8) any home dog off a 21+ ats loss as away 7- dog, if opp is off an ats win. [KC] (push last season. GB 17-24 Chic @ +7) I don't care where this game is being played, SD are by far the better team. I have to laugh at all the ESPN 'experts' who are still not convinced about them (and still have Indi as the no. 1 team in the AFC lol!!!)... ...I realise they have beaten some poor teams, but they haven't just beaten them, they've wiped them off the field! KC showed more of their true form last week, and they will struggle to get anything going against this SD D, who allow <4.0 y/rush and and NFL best 4.89 y/pass. Also their defense is not as good as it might appear after having a pretty soft early schedule themselves. I think SD win this one by a TD or more. (SD are 18-3-1 last 22 v. losing teams!!) Pittsburgh @ Atlanta over 37 (1.94) League: 13-2-1 over (Av. total 36.4...av. score 45.6) any home dog, off a 14+ ats loss as home fav, if total <40. [Atl] (1-0 over last season. NO 17-20 Chic @ 34) League: 13-2 over (Av. total 37.7...av. score 44.6) any away fav, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if total is <40, and opp is off any ats loss. [Pits] (1-0 over this season. KC 23-20 'Zona @ 40) ...That's a combined 26-4-1 over spot!! Pittsburgh finally got things together last week, and running up 41 on KC. They have topped 37 in 3 of 5 games so far, the 2 they didn't they were playing two very good run D's (Jax and SD), who both allow <4 y/rush. Atlanta allow 4.2, but allow 259 yards on 38 attempts last week!! so there's no reason why Parker won't get on track here too. There were 41 points scored in that game last week, but could have easily been more as there were INT's at both ends within scoring range. Atl are actually 7-1-1 over in their last 9 at home, so they do play an uptempo style of game in the dome. Cinci v. Carolina under 44 (1.97) Carolina ML (~2.55) League: 2-12-1 under (av. total 39.2...av. score 32.9!) as a fav of 3 or less off a 3- SU loss as away 3+ fav. [Cinci] *** (0-7 under (Av. total 42.7...av. score 31.8!!!) if total >40!) 0-8-1 under (Av. total 39.6...av. score 29.2!!) if opp is off any ats win. *** They are also 2-13 ats (Av. LOSS 3.0) in this situation, scoring just 14.9 ppg. Cinci's offense is running more on reputation than anything else atm. Their o-line is struggling with their starting centre already out, now their left tackle is out too. Henry is out suspended and Washington is ?? with a hamstring. No wonder they have score just 13 points in both of their last 2 games...and they scored 14 points late off Pits turnovers to make them look more potent than they really were in that game. They couldn't get anything going on the ground last week against a Bucs team that had been leaking yards, so they will definately have problems against Carolina. Both teams really struggle to convert 3rd down...Caro @ 24.3% and Cinci @ 32.3%...Caro allow just 26.3% tho, and Cinci 37.1%. Both teams av. just 17 FD's a game, run at <4 y/rush and both have struggled in the red zone with a combined 22 TD's and 22 FG's. Both teams will struggle to score, but Carolina will come up with more big plays and are great value to win SU, imo. Arizona -3 (1.91) League: 13-1-1 (Av. win 11.5!) away 3- fav, off any ats win but SU loss. [Zona] (1-0 this season. Cleveland 24-21 Oakland @ -2.5!) I think it makes perfect sense here. Everyone is being down on the Cards as losers for blowing the game on Monday night...but the fact is that they performed FAR better than they were "supposed" to, got out to a big lead early, and still covered the spread by over 10 points, despite losing after some freaky plays. Oakland are still Oakland!! They've scored just 5 offensive TD's all season, and throw for just 4.5 y/pass. Also... League: 7-16 (Av. loss 4.2) home 3- dog off an ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Oak] (0-1 last season. Balt 9-21 Cinci @ +3) 1-7 (Av. loss 7.0) if opp won 10+ ats last game. Arizona are just the better team, playing better football in this one. No need to over think this one too much. ...I'll also be on Dallas on Monday night, but wating to see what the line does exactly. :ok

[Bamse81]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Great work as always TazaD :ok GL :hope

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Like those plays Taza. The only one I question is SD -5. This is because I never play a west coast team @1:00. SD seems to be the exception as they usually play well or better than most WC teams @1:00 games. This trend is 6-0 this year including SD loss to Baltimore. SD is the one team from the WC to back in this situation. GL.

[Grim Reaper]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Some great tips on there. Only discovered Punters Lounge NFL tipping recently and was well pleased with the Frank Gore u75.5 yards bet someone posted on here. Think I'll be following you with a few more this week TazD. Can't believe Carolina are 2.55 having won their last four games. I've been very disciplined and restricting myself to betting at half time purely on the outcome of the 2nd half (5Dimes, Pinnacle and CaribSports all good for this) after listening to a particular game in the first half. The success ratio has been great but I fancy going for it big time this week without about 10 bets running simultaneously and having a good old puntathon like I've done the previous two seasons. Reckon I'll take all of those above tips and then sniff around for anything else I can muster. :-)

[popandpops]

NFL Picks for Oct. 22 NFL : Buffalo Bills vs New England P. New England is much better team than baffalo. -Buffalo lost their last 2 games ...40-7 to chicago and 20-17 to detroit..and as we all know detroit is from the worst 4 teams in the NFL. -New england are rested..so they had 2 weeks to prepare for this game . Buffalo as i mentioned played last week @ detroit and lost. -New england won the last 4 meeting ( regular season) by 7 pts or more. High stake on New england to win. NFL : Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh S. Pittsburgh are the defending champs.. they had a slow start by winning the 1st game at home vs miami then lost 3 st games ( Cincy , san diego and Jaguars) then won their last game at home 45-7 against Kansas City ( they are a good team). Atlanta lost an imbarssing lost to Giants at home 14-27 last week. So Pittsburg here has the momemtom and atlanta always had difficulty playing defensive teams like the steelers. Also the steelers won all their games the past 8 meeting with teams from the NFC. High state on the steelers to win . NFL : Cinc. Bengals vs Carolina P. After a heartbreaking loss away vs tampa bay (by 1 pt), The Bengals are looking forward to bounce back in this game. Bengals lost their last 2 games while Carolina won their last 4 after a slow start. CArolinas Defense is really impressive they are allowing 17 pts per game . While their offense is averaging around 21 pts per game. The bengals always have big problems against big defensive teams like the panthers. 2.5 is really high..so take carolina +3 @ 1.9 if u wanna be more sure..but 2.5 just to win is a good deal here. high stake on carolina to win. NFL : Oakland R. vs Cardinals After a heartbreaking loss at home vs the number one team ( Chicago bears), Arizona most likely to bounce back in this game. They have one of the most promising quaterback in the league ( matt leinart). This will be his 3rd game and he was astonishly amazing in the 1st 2 games . he is compeleting 60% of his passes. he got 539 yrds just in 2 games ! Both teams has bad records. Arizona are 1-5 while raiders are 0-5. Arizona won the 1st game against san fancisco then lost to seattle, St. louis, Atlanta , Kansas City and Chicago. 3 of this games were decided by 3 pts or less. They always had the lead but didnt know how to finish games . ( lost to KC by 3 pts , St lous by 2 pts and Bears by 1 pt). Oakland lost all of its games by average of 14 pts ( 2 tochdowns ) !! Their offense is averaging 10 pts per game ! while their defense is receiving an average of 26 pts per game !!! They are just being aweful every game after another. I expect this game to be won easily by Arizona by 10 pts or more and it ll be high scoring game. Arizona will score around 30pts while Oakland will score 14-20 pts. GOOD LUCK

[Bamse81]

Re: NFL Picks for Oct. 22 :welcome to the Punters Lounge mate! Good post :ok

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7. GL .popandpops There is two Buffalo teams one is at home and the other is on the road. Last 2 games Bills played on the road i bet against them. Wouldn't go against them at home. If i would have to pick New England for sure but i'll stay away from this game. GL nice write ups. I'll post my picks 5/6 hours before the kick off.

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7. 1)Oct 22 13:03(uk 18:03)PHL Eagles -5.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 Wow can't believe I am getting these many points @ Home here. Especially considering that Philadelphia's defense has been struggling this year. Look st these totals.. Giants 30 SF 24 Dallas 24 NO 27 Teams are scoring alot of points on this team.. Now let's look at TB. Are they really that bad of a team?? Look at their last 3 Games.. Car 26 TB 24 TB 21 NO 24 Cinc 13 TB 14 Are the Bucs that bad?? I'll take the home dog in here. Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS as home dog last 12 instances. 2)Oct 22 13:03(uk 18:03)DET Lions +3.5 @ NY Jets -3.5 Ny Jets -3.0(bought half a point) The Lions are garbage this year barely won their first game big deal it was @ Home vs the Bills oooh.. Bills are complete shit on the road so are the Lions. The Jets aren't complete shit and should win this @ Home.. All I hope is the Jets win by more than 3.. I just don't see how Det can put together two in a row. Hopefully Piece of shit Detroit don't get all the breaks and somehow win this one or cover good luck!!! 3)Oct 22 16:18(uk 21:03)WAS Redskins +9.0 @ IND Colts -9.0 WAS Redskins +9.0 This line is dropping as we speak.Most of the books have this line at +8.5. Bet365 +9.0 @ 1.86. Wouldnt be that much of a surprised to me if the skins won this game because they have been so inconsistant all season. they blew games at home vs vikings and titans then blow out texans and put up 36 vs the jags. this team is obviously playing below expectations. This is pretty much the season on the line for the skins. If you hear them talking during interviews they all know that this is it for them. I feel more at ease knowing that the team im putting money on is going to be working harder than ever. that doesnt guarantee a win but it guarantees an effort. The colts arent untouchable. They barely beat the jets and the titans almost beat them in indy as well. Skins should be able to easily cover the 9 pts if they can keep drives going and finish them. That is where they have been struggling all season. Clinton Portis will get the most touches of all running backs this week and thats because he has to. They should be able to be more physical than the colts wearing them down and keeping peyton and company off the field. Skins just have to stop the big plays on defense when peyton does come in. I remember a couple years ago the skins gave the patriots their first lost during their big winning streak so the skins have done this before . GL. NCAA week 1 - 7W/2L NCAA week 2 - 2W/2L NCAA week 3 - 2W/3L NCAA week 4 - 6W/1P/2L NCAA week 5 - 4W/5L NCAA week 6 - 1W/4L NCAA week 7 - 3w/3L NCAA week 8 - 3W/2L NFL week 1 - 1W/2L NFL week 2 - 1W/0L NFL week 3 - 1PUSH NFL week 4 - 3W/1L NFL week 6 - 3W/1L Overall 36W/2P/27L

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Look at this. Philadelphia - Tampa Philly is taking in over 91% of the wagers here, however the books seem to be comfortable keeping the line at 5 or 5.5. LOL. WAS Redskins +9.0 @ IND Colts -9.0 .Line open -10 Colts(8.5/9.0 at the present) 49% wagers on Colts 51% on Redskins No doubt the Big money is on Tampa and Washington.

[Papa Lazarou]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Vitalyo - very good piece of info on the betting pattern for TBB game which supports TB, I would suggest. once again, stats and reasoning par excellence from you guys, particularly Taz. Common ground seems to be Caroline and Arizona with their respective handicaps so that is my double play. Here are the RP tips so you can check if you are continuing to beat them! Good luck guys! PUNTERS might think twice about backing a team as favourites when they are only one game removed from a 41-0 thrashing, but the New York Jets have plenty in their favour when they host Detroit tonight. Other than their tonking by Jacksonville, the Big Apple boys have won three games and lost by seven and three points respectively to New England and Indianapolis – two of the better teams in the league. And a strong reason for backing them to follow up last week’s confidence-restoring home win over Miami is the stricken state of the Lions’ offensive and defensive lines Detroit offensive coordinator Mike Martz can draw up magical plays for the likes of running back Kevin Jones, receiver Roy WIlliams and solid quarterback Jon Kitna, but they isn’t much any of them can do without the help of the big boys up front and injuries have hit them hard. It’s a similar story in the defensive trenches, where defensive tackles Shaun Cody (toe) and banned Shaun Rogers will be missing. Rogers has been a Pro Bowler for the past two seasons and although Jets running back Leon Washington is inexperienced, his 101-yard game against the Jaguars showed promise. Recommendation New York Jets -3.5, 3pts 10-11 general Carolina at Cincinnati BACK-TO-BACK defeats have hit the Bengals’ Super Bowl dream and they look vulnerable again against the Panthers, who are seeking a fifth win in a row. Injuries have made the Bengals defence vulnerable to the run, so the Panthers’ DeShaun Foster could be in for a big day, while fit again receiver Steve Smith is impossible for most defences to cover and helped QB Jake Delhomme to the best passing day of his career against the tough Ravens defence last week. The Panthers’ defence are making big plays again andthe handicap start is a bonus. Recommendation Carolina +3, 2pts evens general Arizona at Oakland WINLESS Oakland showed by holding Denver to 13-3 last week that they might not be the worst team in the league, but it took a massive meltdown by Arizona for them not to beat one of the best ones around against Chicago last week. The Cardinals, despite their1-5 record, are capable of scoring well against any defence and their own rearguard was much improved against the Bears. They are more than capable of extending the Raiders’ agony. Recommendation Arizona -3, 3pts 10-11 general

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk. 7. San Diego are also 14-3-2 ATS and under 13/19 on the road. I like this play a hell of a lot, however my only worry is whether the Chiefs were looking to this game last week and were saving themselves for this one. I'll take the under here. Oakland Raiders (ML @ 2.5 Bet 365) In the same way as people were blindly backing Indy this year I think are blindly taking Oaklands opponents (no one on here btw). I saw Arizona ruin my bets last week with a great performance against the Bears, and logic says if they can put those points up against Chicago they willl decimate Oakland. I am also very aware that the Bronco's have been conservative on offence this year which accounts (in part) for the 13-3 scoreline last week. BUT Oaklands D isn't that bad AND Arizona's O isn't that good. Leinart is a good rookie QB, but what Isaw last week was a performance that reminded me of Gannon when Raiders had a team. The coach had obviously decided in a risk-free short passong game which worked. I think we could stuff the run today. The question is whether Leinart will be allowed to test Oaklands very shaky secondary. I think not. Now all I need to happen is for Oakland to score a few points! :lol :lol :lol :wall :wall Denver Broncos (-4)@ Cleveland Browns Even though Denver are playing within themselves they have shown they can do what it takes to get the win. They face the Browns today and after managing to squeeze past Oakland I think they will have a better week against the Browns. The meanest defence in the NFL right now face a team who are ranked 31st in total offence. The line should in truth be very similar to last weeks Denver/Oakland game. The under is still tempting at 31.5, but my worry is that Denver will start to score points in a big way, and it could well be this week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Incidentally I'm sot of trying to see whether point spreads of +3 or less are actually worth having and if you believe that x can win ATS of 3 (or less) then why not take the money line. Maybe one for the Glory Hunters forum...:unsure Can anyone tell me how to get the historical odds for the NFL please?

[El_Stuart]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Valiant, my personal opinion as a long time punter on college sports also is that handicaps of less than 1 score are absolutely worthless, anything under 3pts in football and 2pts in basketball should just be avoided...I personally will always use the ML in close games, represents better value IMO.

[El_Stuart]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Arizona (-3.0) @ Oakland I think today is finally the day that Edgerrin James gets it rolling in Arizona. After last weeks disaster in the 4th quarter by Leinart and the Cards, and the subsequent offensive co-ordinator firing, I expect a full on change in the Arizona offense philosophy tonight. Despite Leinarts 2 fumbles late last week hes shown that he can pass the ball well, but needs good support from his running game. Oaklands run defense leaves alot to be desired giving up 149ypg on the ground, I think Edge can be effective enough to take the heat off Leinart and allow Arizonas pass game (220ypg in the air) to do its thing and send Oakland off to a nice 0-6 start :hope Jacksonville @ Houston..(Over 40.5) The line of -8.5 for Jacksonville is a fair line for me, i fully expect the Jags to win, but Houston are known for playing the Jags tough. Despite Houston being almost pityful and not much better than the Oakland Raiders, David Carr has shown some promise this season airing out 194ypg. Jacksonville have 2 of there best pass defensemen out for the season with Mike Peterson (MLB) and Reggie Hayward (DE) both gone and will be hugely missed against any competent passing unit. The only thing that saves Jags weekly is they have the ability to shut down ANY run game (see the Steelers and Cowboy games) but this is a non-factor against Houston who dont run the ball well at all. Jacksonville QB status is uncertain as Leftwich missed practice yesterday, the texans have prepared to face Leftwich and if Garrard starts (95% likely) i think they struggle to stop him since hes a totally different style of QB, and a more than adequate replacement. Im going for points points points here :hope New England @ Buffalo (Under 37.0) This is a weather play. Its raining and cold in Buffalo, with the game expected to start with the temps in the 40s and rain still pouring down. I Think the bad weather neutralizes Tom Brady's passing game and forces them to run, keeping the points down. Buffalo dont run the football all that well at the moment and again their passing game is gonna suffer because of the weather, JP Losman better watch out as the ravenous Patriots defense comes looking for him fresh off a bye week...I expect Buffalo to score no more than 10 pts in this game, hopefully keeping the run totals down :hope

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Jax are coming off their bye week & the game before that they demolished the jets 41-0. since 1993, nfl teams are 0-11 ats when they are off a bye & they held their last opponent to 3 points or less. Play on Houston +8...(Passing on this one) vitalyo...where are you getting those % numbers? I don't doubt the principle of what you are saying, but the 90% is WAY off what I'm seeing. Not sure why you wouldn't take the 'Skins +10 early in the week if you liked them then anyway? But, if you're playing line moves, how aobut Jets/Det over? Opened 37.5...now upto 44, with an even 50% support ;)

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7. No i don't play line moves .It just supports my picks. Covers and vegasinsider bouth of them have %. GL.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

1:00 PM

Philadelphia

-6

2991

69.22%

Tampa Bay

+6

1330

30.78%

Detail

That's from Wagerline, which is where I think covers get their numbers... ...but either way, looking good at HT. (Not as good as my Atl/Pits over tho! :D LOL! Love games where I don't have to watch the second half!)

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7. from wagerline consensus details. Philadelphia 110 -4.5 Tampa Bay 34 +4.5 Philadelphia 1273 -5 Tampa Bay 482 +5 Philadelphia 1215 -5.5 Tampa Bay 541 +5.5 Philadelphia 393 -6 Tampa Bay 273 +6 Looks like -6.0 level the # of wagers . I took TB at +5.5.And i don't use wagerline for my %. GL.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Atlanta/Pitts over at H-T! :clap :clap

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

from wagerline consensus details. Philadelphia 110 -4.5 Tampa Bay 34 +4.5 Philadelphia 1273 -5 Tampa Bay 482 +5 Philadelphia 1215 -5.5 Tampa Bay 541 +5.5 Philadelphia 393 -6 Tampa Bay 273 +6 Looks like -6.0 level the # of wagers . I took TB at +5.5.And i don't use wagerline for my %. GL.

Like I said, I'm not disputing the theory behind it all...I agree completely that TB were the play based on the movement... ...but be careful where you get you numbers. At some smaller places 90% might well mean 18 on one side and 2 on the other. You really want to have a large sample to make things more accurate. SD coming up well short :@ Hopefully the Panthers' D keeps doing the trick.

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

Like I said, I'm not disputing the theory behind it all...I agree completely that TB were the play based on the movement... ...but be careful where you get you numbers. At some smaller places 90% might well mean 18 on one side and 2 on the other. You really want to have a large sample to make things more accurate. SD coming up well short :@ Hopefully the Panthers' D keeps doing the trick.

TY for your valueable advice!!! Now go check vegasinsider!!!They still have the #s .Right on the front page. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/betting-trends/[email protected]/date/10-22-06/time/1300/linechanges/y As i said before.My play is according to the stats.NOT the line movement. END of story.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Last Play: 3-1-PHI 44(:04) M.Bryant 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Moore, Holder-J.Bidwell. :eek :eek Just saw it too, cleared the bar by about 2-3 feet!!

[Grim Reaper]

Re: NFL wk. 7. I missed out on the Atlanta Over pre-game but thanks to the wonders of half time betting with 5Dimes, I was able to take ATL-PIT o20 for the 2nd half only and still enjoy the pointathon!! :-) Having a rough night overall though - Carolina and SD were heartbreaking losses.

[Grim Reaper]

Re: NFL wk. 7. WTF are Arizona playing at???? 0-14 against the tossing Raiders. What is the world coming to? Really thought this was going to be my night after the Jets got off to a flyer

[danj2202]

Re: NFL wk. 7. thank god for the broncos gutted about san diego, carolina and it looks like Arizona as well confused!!

[El_Stuart]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

thank god for the broncos gutted about san diego, carolina and it looks like Arizona as well confused!!

Dont count the Cardinals out yet, they can move the ball and move it fast...and this is a very poor oakland team. early days yet.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

Dont count the Cardinals out yet' date=' they can move the ball and move it fast...and this is a very poor oakland team. early days yet.[/quote']They look good right now mate. Oakland that is. :ok

[El_Stuart]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

They look good right now mate. Oakland that is. :ok

Andrew Walter's last 2 drives have been an interception and a fumble...hope for Arizona backers yet ;) This is the kind of game which will be won by whichever team sucks the least :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Sorry. I'm watching. I suppose the fact that Owen also let 3 passes through his fingers and are picking Leinart of at will also proves we suck.

[El_Stuart]

Re: NFL wk. 7.

Sorry. I'm watching. I suppose the fact that Owen also let 3 passes through his fingers and are picking Leinart of at will also proves we suck.

Oakland fired out of the blocks, but since then have gotten sloppy with turnovers..any real team would have more than 3 points on the board now IMO. Arizona are sucking so bad its unreal. It wasnt meant to sound as harsh as it did, dont take offense :$

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk. 7. Must have had an adrenaline rush reading other posts on this thread stuart. :lol Honestly mate Walters is doing the job tonight whilst Leinart isn't connect with much over 5 yards.

Leinart is a good rookie QB, but what Isaw last week was a performance that reminded me of Gannon when Raiders had a team

Its looking more and more like that mate honest. Arizona's seconday are as bad as Oakland have been this year (or at least tonight anyway).