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Henieken Cup Betting Thread...


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Ok, it doesn't start til Friday but I intend to have a bet on each game and see how I've done at the end of the qualifiers/group stages. I've noticed that Northampton are 50-1 - they should be able to get out of their group easily and look a nice trading price. Same for Blues (80/1) and Ospreys (50-1) - I actually thinki Ospreys have the team to go all the way should they click and I think the 50's Paddy Power are offering should be snapped up.

20 Oct6Border Reivers v Overmach Parma19:30Netherdale-
20 Oct3Ospreys v Sale Sharks19:30Liberty-
20 Oct5London Irish v Llanelli20:00The Madejski-
20 Oct2Agen v Edinburgh20:30Armandie-
21 Oct5Ulster v Toulouse13:35Ravenhill-
21 Oct1Treviso v Perpignan14:00Di Monigo-
21 Oct3Calvisano v Stade Francais14:00San Michele-
21 Oct4Bourgoin v Blues16:30Pierre Rajon-
21 Oct2Leinster v Gloucester17:30Lansdowne Road-
22 Oct1Wasps v Castres13:00Causeway-
22 Oct4Leicester v Munster15:00Welford Road-
22 Oct6Biarritz v Northampton16:00Parc Aguilera
I also have a theory about early KO times in the HEC - more of that later.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Calvisano v Stade FrancaisCalvisano +26 @ Expect.com

Ok, so it’s a supposed minnow playing one of the best sides in Europe, fair enough. Calvisano are a decent team with a fair sprinkling of Italian internationals but the crux for me here is that the French like to play it canny and I can’t see them sending a full strength team up and along the med as the there are obviously bigger fish to fry in the group and at the top of the French 14. SF will win of course they will but Calivsano will run that cap close I’m sure. SF as thought are sending a weakened team but do have a very strong bench to call on should they need it

Borders v Overmach Parma - Borders-12 @ Paddy Power

Borders, fresh from their surprise win over Leinster last week will be looking to continue their winning ways against the Italian qualifiers. Parma, bless em, are a good honest bunch but to be frank – they ain’t that good and what decent players they had last year have been snatched away from them, Emerich pour example. Expect a dodgy first half and Borders to ponce away with it in the last 20.

Leicester v Munster Tigers -5 @ PaddyPower

Now I don’t care what you say, Munster won’t win this, unless they’ve all been anally probed by Alien visitors and been afforded some kind of strange rugby playing ability since their raping by a very average Edinburgh side. Munster started the season in a shit state and have continued to be utter shit even with all of the "stars" back in the line up…..they bravely hung onto a 1 point lead against the Borders (the flecking borders???) and lost to a bunch of skag taking heid the balls up in Glasgow. Blind faith and optimism won’t be enough for the Munster fans here. On a plus note for Munster – this incoming arse kicking may just kick start their season.

Ospreys V Sale –

To tight to call on the cap.

Ulster v Toulouse - Ulster+4 @ Betfred

Ulster have been on fire at home and have torn asunder all who made the trip to the province. Toulouse on the other hand are struggling a little bit with their form and have serious weaknesses in their front five and their backs seem a little leaderless since the injury to Michelak. I would have preferred this even more if it were not a lunchtime kick off but you can count on 15,000 Ulstermen shouting themselves silly. Ulster could win this outright never mind the generous offer of a 4 point start from Betfred. All the French are being over estimated in my opinion.

Bourgoin v CardiffCardiff +12 @ Bet365.

Bourgoin are a funny old team – last time they were in the HEC they really didn’t bother and just concentrated on the F14, who knows what their target will be this year but I suspect it’s more of the same due to their very small squad. They are a very physical team with a good kicking game but I can’t help but like Cardiff here, the Blues have won away in England recently and will quite fancy their chances to take something from this game, even a losing bonus point which could become vital. Good back line selected for the Blues tonight and if the forwards can compete then it could be a great night for the blues.

Biarritz v NorthamptonBiarritz –18 @ Betdirect.

Northampton could get trousered here. Cohen and Thompson are back from injuries which is handy but I’ve seen a first XV Northampton play this season and not only where they kept to a few chances by a much lower rated team they were also outfought and out battled. An unfancied bottom of the league Worcester side also spanked a good Northampton side a few weeks ago. Northampton are also rudderless after losing their captain through injury with Darren Fox stepping into the breach. Biarritz on the other hand will be hurting after last years Final defeat and if they are in the mood could blast Northampton away.

London Irish v ScarletsScarlets +6 Bet365

I really hope I’m not letting myself get suckered into supporting the Welsh teams here….but the Scarlets squad, on paper anyway, looks really impressive and they certainly have the players to turn over the Exiles. Peel and Jones are paired together and Regan King is probably the best centre in the country at the moment. Mike Catt does return for the Irish tonight but they only played last Sunday and have been bemoaning the short turn around where the Scarlets have had an extra week off. Form wise the Exiles have been pants with two wins from five whilst if Scarlets win just one of their games in hand they will be top of the vastly superior Magners League.

Leinster v Gloucester

To tight to call

Agen v Edinburgh – Edinburgh + 10 Paddy Power

Ah, what the heck, I’m going with Edinburgh here, even if they are Chris Pattersonless. The Gunners are one of those teams that really can beat anyone on their day and I’m fancying that Agen are just going to pay this tournament lip service and concentrate on the league. Agen it has to be said are a win at home lose away kind of team but Edinburgh will be bolstered by that really excellent and some would say easy victory away in Limerick against what was meant to be a 1st XV Munster side and could stop Agen playing the same way they did against the Red machine

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Superb write-ups DAC :clap Dont tell the Rugby League lads but the Henieken Cup is one of my favourite sporting competitions. I am working with a Stade Francais fan at the moment, he also agrees that they will only play in 2nd gear this week. DAC, can I ask for your strength ratings on the previews abvove please ;)

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Cheers, Rugby lad.

DAC, can I ask for your strength ratings on the previews abvove please
I'll do my best: Calvisano v Stade Francais 7/10 Borders v Overmach Parma 8/10 Leicester v Munster 10/10 Ulster v Toulouse 8/10 Biarritz v Northampton 8/10 London Irish v Scarlets 6/10 Agen v Edinburgh 6/10 Bourgoin v Cardiff 6/10
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Cheers, Rugby lad. I'll do my best: Calvisano v Stade Francais 7/10 Borders v Overmach Parma 8/10 Leicester v Munster 10/10 Ulster v Toulouse 8/10 Biarritz v Northampton 8/10 London Irish v Scarlets 6/10 Agen v Edinburgh 6/10 Bourgoin v Cardiff 6/10
Cheers DAC :ok Best of luck mate
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Nice one RL. I'm confidentish but more confident of a return of profit over the whole tournament, The Bloody french are the key here and god knows what is up with Micks at the moment. In the Challenge Cup tonight, my team the Dragons are facing a 3rd string Bayonne who are bottom of the F14. If you seen anything around -15 Dragons on Oddschecker then snap it up. We are putting out our strongest team available and are in the tournament to win it. Oo!ops on Borders!

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

In the Challenge Cup tonight' date=' my team the Dragons are facing a 3rd string Bayonne who are bottom of the F14. If you seen anything around -15 Dragons on Oddschecker then snap it up. We are putting out our strongest team available and are in the tournament to win it.[/quote'] cheers DAC, best handicap I see is the Dragons -18pts?
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Cheers, Rugby lad. I'll do my best: Calvisano v Stade Francais 7/10 Borders v Overmach Parma 8/10 Leicester v Munster 10/10 Ulster v Toulouse 8/10 Biarritz v Northampton 8/10 London Irish v Scarlets 6/10 Agen v Edinburgh 6/10 Bourgoin v Cardiff 6/10
:ok nice work dac and thanks for sharing your analysis and thoughts on punterslounge and your blog. i'd just read your posts on your blog and was also wondering about the strength of your bets. i've done mine to level stakes tonight as i wasn't sure. :unsure doh! should have checked here first. :loon i was just getting over the end of the rugby league season, when i happened across your rugby union posts. i frequent the superleague threads and know even less about union! :lol hopefully i'll get into it more by following your posts. :ok i'll be checking back here more often. :dude have just read your posts about your team. just as well really as i'm still not sure whether you fancied the dragons to cover 22, or not, in the end. :unsure
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... hi mearl, fancy bumping into you on here ;) not had a punt on the RU tonight, although I was tempted with Sale @ 8/11 and the Dragons -18pts. The one that is catching my eye is Calvisano +26pts @ expekt. After reading DAC's preview on the game, I threw a couple of open questions to a new French guy (SF Supporter) in the office. He seemed to think Stade Francais would win the game but not by the margin books were offering. I read on a couple of forums and it seems that SF will be sending a couple of second/third choice players over to Italy (although most of whom would get into most teams over here). Im a complete novice of RU betting and i will be the first to admit it..... but.... I wonder if bluesquare's rugby compiler is as sharpe at Rugby Union as he is at Rugby League........:unsure it became apparent (highlighted by yourself mearl) that in the latter half of the RL season, their guy was willing to stick his handicaps out from everyone elses, which in turn tempted average joe punters into backing what they thought was the best handicap around.......but eventually left with egg on their faces. bluesquare go Stade Francais -22pts @ 1.90 (best around)......can we read anything into it? Obviously this line will tempt alot of punters into backing the SF but as so often in RL it could be bluesqaure's man left counting the dosh... Just pondering on this.......

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Tonight's European Rugby results..... Heineken Cup Agen 19-17 Edinburgh Borders 35-3 Overmach Parma London Irish 25-32 Llanelli Scarlets Ospreys 17-16 Sale European Challenge Cup Connacht 18-19 Harlequins Montauban 13-26 Brive Montpellier 14-21 Bath Newcastle 50-5 Petrarca Newport-Gwent D'gons 50-3 Bayonne 3/3 tonight DAC :clap :clap :clap great start mate!!!! Thats top tipping! :ok

Borders v Overmach Parma - Borders-12 @ Paddy Power

Borders, fresh from their surprise win over Leinster last week will be looking to continue their winning ways against the Italian qualifiers. Parma, bless em, are a good honest bunch but to be frank – they ain’t that good and what decent players they had last year have been snatched away from them, Emerich pour example. Expect a dodgy first half and Borders to ponce away with it in the last 20. just one of their games in hand they will be top of the vastly superior Magners League. London Irish v Scarlets – Scarlets +6 >Bet365 I really hope I’m not letting myself get suckered into supporting the Welsh teams here….but the Scarlets squad, on paper anyway, looks really impressive and they certainly have the players to turn over the Exiles. Peel and Jones are paired together and Regan King is probably the best centre in the country at the moment. Mike Catt does return for the Irish tonight but they only played last Sunday and have been bemoaning the short turn around where the Scarlets have had an extra week off. Form wise the Exiles have been pants with two wins from five whilst if Scarlets win just one of their games in hand they will be top of the vastly superior Magners League.

Agen v Edinburgh – Edinburgh + 10 Paddy Power

Ah, what the heck, I’m going with Edinburgh here, even if they are Chris Pattersonless. The Gunners are one of those teams that really can beat anyone on their day and I’m fancying that Agen are just going to pay this tournament lip service and concentrate on the league. Agen it has to be said are a win at home lose away kind of team but Edinburgh will be bolstered by that really excellent and some would say easy victory away in Limerick against what was meant to be a 1st XV Munster side and could stop Agen playing the same way they did against the Red machine
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Just had a change of heart about the Dragons game - Paul Turner has made 9 changes to the team that lost in Connacht' date=' whilst we should still win convincingly but that +22 for Bayonne Paddy Power is offering looks a bit tempting.[/quote'] Should have been 4 from 4 matey, never change your mind ;)
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Leicester v Munster Tigers -5 @ PaddyPower

Now I don’t care what you say, Munster won’t win this, unless they’ve all been anally probed by Alien visitors and been afforded some kind of strange rugby playing ability since their raping by a very average Edinburgh side. Munster started the season in a shit state and have continued to be utter shit even with all of the "stars" back in the line up…..they bravely hung onto a 1 point lead against the Borders (the flecking borders???) and lost to a bunch of skag taking heid the balls up in Glasgow. Blind faith and optimism won’t be enough for the Munster fans here. On a plus note for Munster – this incoming arse kicking may just kick start their season.
Stan James have Leicester -4pts @ 1.90 :ok
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... quote: ;) rugbylad " Dont tell the Rugby League lads but the Henieken Cup is one of my favourite sporting competitions." ------------------------------------------------------------------------ :lol i'll not tell if you don't tell. ;) damn, now i'm guilty by association! see you've been loitering around these parts of the pl for a while now rugbylad. i've also spotted grim on the fair forum in on the union boards. :lol seems like the rugby union forum on the fair is quite busy. quote rugbylad : I wonder if bluesquare's rugby compiler is as sharpe at Rugby Union as he is at Rugby League........:unsure ------------------------------------------------------------------------- interesting question rugbylad. i think i've had a similar thought but regarding which firms are good at which sports. :unsure thing is to be careful of when traders transfer to other firms. so you really have to keep your ear to the ground. i have a feeling though that different compilers are good at the different codes of rugby. i await to hear what you decide on the stade francais match and the angle that you point out about bluesqare's line for the game. good to know that you can pick a friend's brain about stade francais. :) i'm a simple man and fell into punting on league through a friend and then started watching more and more on fridays and some saturdays. i used to punt on union (mainly internationals) but for some reason never really got into watching it. that's probably because i'm usually watching football on saturday afternoons. have not really punted union for a few years as was given the impression that it's more difficult to predict. rugbylad if you are a novice on RU betting then in racing terms i'm the grade below that...if there is one. :lol from reading the forums on the web it seems that fans either like one code or the other. is there a reason for that? :unsure is league more working class? :unsure are the codes that different that if you can make money on one that you won't necessarily make money on the other. :unsure i went to a saints v south african ba bas? match many years ago and was surprised that the saints fans clapped good play by the visitors. :loon it's time i put my sherlock hat on dear watson and try to find out which books are best at union. it might take me a day or so though. grim would be the man if it were for league, because his spreadsheet would tell us the original handicaps for each book compared to the final scores. :ok apologies for the continual mentioning of the fair forum, but a poster in there was complaining how late the handicaps are released for union. so that's not disimilar to what happens in league. i can understand why the books would have been cautious with all the cup games though, as there are wholesale squad changes by the bigger teams in the competitions. :loon very nice tipping dac. 3/3 :cow:cow:cow:unsure your first gut instinct about the dragons was correct too. they must be a classy side to rack up the points like that with a second string team out. :D oh and i forgot to say...of it's ok with the powers that be, i'd like to nominate dac's union posts for a sticky. :ok

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

:lol i'll not tell if you don't tell. ;) damn' date=' now i'm guilty by association! see you've been loitering around these parts of the pl for a while now [b']rugbylad.
:lol :lol :lol
from reading the forums on the web it seems that fans either like one code or the other. is there a reason for that? :unsure is league more working class? :unsure are the codes that different that if you can make money on one that you won't necessarily make money on the other. :unsure
cheers for the post above mearl, difficult one to answers regarding why people generally punt on mainly one code of rugby. For me, I grew up in a rugby league heartland and played the sport until the age of 21. I have always liked a flutter (guess thats with having irish parents ;)) and over the years I have dedicated more time to Rugby League betting, until it became my one and only specialised sport (dont think punters can have too many specialised sports, 3/4 max). Always enjoyed International Rugby Union & European Cup competitions, but never had a team to follow at domestic level, so my interest was limited at a early age. Unlike some others, I treat RU & RL as two completely different sports, especially from a betting perspective. Having said that, weather conditions probably have the same effect on matches :unsure. As for this ever changing Calvisano v Stade Francais line.....expekt have shortened from +26pts to +24pts :\ , but I notice that Hills have undercut bluesquare and gone SF -21pts. Probably going to leave this one and note the result for future reference. Wonder if DAC can offer any insight into which bookmakers are stronger at union (start by asking yourself which book do you seem to lose money with when you bet on RU :lol )
oh and i forgot to say...of it's ok with the powers that be' date=' i'd like to nominate [b']dac's union posts for a sticky. :ok
Aye, here here!! :D
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... so effectively you've only recently hung up your boots rugbylad :clap last season was my first season of watching rugbyleague :loon in fact i still don't know a lot of the rules! being raised in bedfordshire, rugby league coverage was nil. the only reason i've got into rugby league is that i was being tipped handicap bets a couple of seasons ago. i was then lucky enough to be a guest for the bradford leeds grand final. the season just gone i decided to try and watch more on sky and i was hooked. :D with regard to billy mountains undercutting bluesquare's handicap...it doesn't really surprise me as they seem to always be late with their lines and follow the pack. they've probably not taken much on the match and don't see it as much of a risk. i might be wrong though and they may have a really shrewd union compiler...but i doubt it somehow...:lol i would have thought anyone looking to back stade francais will have jumped on bluesquare's initial offer as early as possible.

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... ;) I have taken the following multi with centrebet: LEICESTER TIGERS Win STADE FRANCAIS - Over 12.5 Win BIARRITZ - Over 12.5 Win ULSTER Win It is paying $4.75 which I personally think is great value. I specialise more so in SOuthern Hemisphere RUgby but with the help of DAC I have taken the above bet.:hope

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

so effectively you've only recently hung up your boots rugbylad :clap .
Aye, busted my shoulder a few years ago playing against Salford University, had to hang up my boots, although I do play in the odd foreigner or old boys game. Great sport to play, I'd recommend it to anyone who doesnt mind losing a couple thousand brain cells each time they take a tackle :lol
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

;) I have taken the following multi with centrebet: LEICESTER TIGERS Win STADE FRANCAIS - Over 12.5 Win BIARRITZ - Over 12.5 Win ULSTER Win It is paying $4.75 which I personally think is great value. I specialise more so in SOuthern Hemisphere RUgby but with the help of DAC I have taken the above bet.:hope
Good luck iceman79, :hope must admit Leicester is on my list of possibles.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... A barely satisfactory 5/8 This weekend but it’s useful to pick over the bones and see what lessons are there to be learnt and to see where I went totally wrong.

Borders v Overmach Parma :) Leicester v Munster Ulster v Toulouse :) Bourgoin v Cardiff :) Biarritz v Northampton

London Irish v Scarlets :) Agen v Edinburgh :) Calvisano v Biarritz

Calvisano v SF

I’ve quite simply underestimated how poor the Italian sides are this season. SF did send a 2nd string team out but sadly the French reserves were far to strong. My mistake is looking at the Italian national team as a whole and thinking they’ve come on leaps and bounds. Looks like I’m wrong.

Leicester v Munster

Never underestimate Munster and the power of the HEC. With hindsight it was obvious that Munster were targeting this game and the blips against Edinburgh last week was just that. Munster did get a lucky try and I do think the Tigers tried to play rugby but at the end of the day the red machine ticked on and I should have been aware.

Biarritz v Northampton

Kind of disappointing this result as Biarritz had the cap covered at half time and merely took their feet off their collective French pedals and let Northampton score the only try of the second half. I really thought this game was heading for a massacre but it’s always tricky betting on caps involving the French – just one of those things I suppose. The French, as I mentioned on Friday, are over estimated in this years HEC and it should make for some interesting betting. As I've mentioned previously....My target is to make a profit from the group games, something which I'm sure I'll accomplish. Should be interesting next weekend watching the bookies cap the Celtic League teams as I think I'm right in saying that if you had bet on all the caps including Celtic League teams you would have come out 6 for 6.

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Good results DAC. I was up on the weekend thank God but lost on Wasps & Biarritz handicaps yesterday which brought me back, very disappointing - however I did back my own men Munster with 4.5 when I saw Paul Burke and Leo Cullen were selected; Burke was 3rd choice outhalf at Munster and Cullen was never a fear for our pack previously; when I saw the rain on top of it I thought we'd a chance with a few points. A few mates of mine travelled and all the feedback was that the team were very focused and deteremined. I backed us at +16.5 also for a bit of cover though :ok. Wasps were disappointing overall but I couldn't believe Biarritz letting Northampton back in for the score to beat my handicap by 0.5 of a point - sickening. Great call on Cardiff, I followed you in on that one :nana

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