GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 You can find Part 1 HERE. If you haven't attempted it yet, feel free to have a bash and post your answer, before reading the replies ;) I probably wont regurgitate any of Harringtons analysis this time, so simply a hand reading exercise for you. Blinds $25/$50 Pot: $75 Player A $9,500 Player B $10,200 Player C (Daniel Negreanu/You) $7,000 Player D $15,000 Player E $6,000 Player F $10,000 Player G $12,000 Player H (Sam Farha/Button) $30,000 Small Blind $11,000 Big Blind $8,000 Situation Early in the first round of the 2005 World Series of Poker. Your playing partner is "Kid poker", Daniel Negreanu, considered one of the best no limit tournament players in the world. Most of the players at the table are new, inexperienced faces, including many internet qualifiers. A notable exception is Sam Farha on the button, a very aggressive and dangerous opponent, who finished 2nd to Chris Moneymaker in the 2003 World Series. Sam has knocked 2 players out already, and is one of the early chip leaders with $30,000. Your Hand |||||&|||| .%^( Action Players A an B fold You raise to $150 Players D and E fold Player F raises to $400 Player G folds Sam Farha on the button calls The blinds fold The pot is $1,025 You call for an extra $250 The pot is $1,275 Flop ~~~~~&~~~~ ;;;;;&;;;; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 Leadeboard and answer will be posted here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 7s or 6s i think .i would go for 7s:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 7s or 6s i think .i would go for 7s:ok I'm looking for percentages (in the same format as the first exercise) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ooner Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I'll go for K 5 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I'll go for K 5 . C'mon guys you know the format!!! (If not look back to the first one ;) ) That's 100% K5 is it? :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 Hmmm, Always tough to read agressive Big Stacking Bullies! :unsure 30% 89 30% 48 20% 34 20% 24 He could have ANYTHING to be honest! :wall TQM edit - I'd have called by the way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 A5os (50%) 98os (30%) AKspades (20%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 30% Ax Spades (10 combos, I think) 30% Kx Spades (10 combos again) 20% xx Spades (56 combos) 9% 77 (3 combos) 9% 66 (3 combos) 2% K5 (6 combos) Hard to decide, as you can see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msaban Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 25% 2 spades 25% Ax x=4/5/6/7/8 25% pp lower than JJ 25% KK or AA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 40% suited A x where x is 8-k 15% 89 spades 15% poc ks 30% poc pair 6s or 7s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 95% not better than my strait 5% better than my strait -Don't know how many exact combinations !!-- Just know i'd have to call - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 95% not better than my strait 5% better than my strait Jeez - now there's a mathmatical problem for me!!!! Might try and find an "easy" way out .... using on online calculator :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ooner Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 C'mon guys you know the format!!! (If not look back to the first one ;) ) That's 100% K5 is it? :tongue2 Absolutely, that's how I like my eggs, all in one basket;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 35% A, 8-J spades 25% JJ QQ 15% KK 5% 8,9 5% AK (not spades) 15% K, 5-7 Wouldn't folded cos i'm a bit mad me :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I'm going to start by saying, the player played this hand very poorly, don't care how many wsop bracelets he's got, the check on the flop was weak. He must feel he's ahead at this point with his straight, with 2 spades on the flop, he's simply inviting people to claim they have a flush, regardless of truth. Should be raising hard at this point to protect a hand that's clearly ahead at this point, but potentially going to get cracked. I also hate the check on the river, it's so weak and forces you to fold to any big bet. I still think you have him covered, I put him on Kx, largeish kicker, 8 or above. Weak play costs a hand I think you should have won, large bet at the flop would have scooped the pot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I agree Fools, however Harrington doesn't - he thinks the check is the right play post flop. The reason he gives is that both his opponents are still to act, and both showed strength pre flop - he ecpects one of them to take the betting lead and to bet into the pot .......Which Farha does.... He then argues that it is premature to reraise (you're wanting to extract the maximum possible) as Player F could still be slow playing a high overpair and could reraise. If player F hadn't been there he advocates "getting your chips in gradually" - so a small reraise. Post turn, the $2000 bet is sized such that it leaves a callable bet after the river if he goes all in...... His objective was to get all the chips in, however when a 3rd club hits the river (will happen about 40% of the time? Not sure, that's a wild guess) he changes his plan. Harrington defends the play, but like you, I don't like it..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I can see his point if this was a cash game, +EV is important, but this is a tournement situation, you clearly have a winning hand, a raise or even reraise on the flop wins a pot that is reasonable in relation to the size of your stack. The $2000 raise on the turn when the king flops is pointless, you leave yourself open to a reraise to out yourself all in, I think it's push or fold at this point. I don't get the idea of surrendering the inititive. It can only lead to you being forced to fold. You're in for 50% of your stack at this stage, with another $3.5k required to call a pot of nearly $12k, he clearly has a 75% or above certainity that he's losing the pot, or he'd call from a pot odds basis. That's what I love about Poker, very little facts, all about opinion, sorry for taking this off topic a bit btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 sorry for taking this off topic a bit btw. I don't think it is - this is all about that hand and any discussion of it is welcome (indeed encouraged!!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I don't mind the turn bet - not far off of 50% of the pot - it's enough (without any implied odds) that calling for a flush or straight draw (8 or 9 outs - under 20% to hit) is an error, but he may call with a substantially worse hand - top pair/two pair/an overpair. It's the post flop play I don't like....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I change my mind, regardless of how I think he played this hand, he's clearly a very good player, so instead of trying to put the villian on cards, I'm going to try and think what the player put him on and trust his read to be good The player is confident, until a 5d appears on the river. So I assume this has made the hand, your holding a straight, so we need either a flush, Full house of quad 5's to lose here. I rule out the flush, because you shouldn't call the $2,000 bet on the turn chasing a spade, the odds aren't there. I now put him on pocket 5's (20%) or 5x where x is either 6,7 (80%) of the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhh I can't believe this, but I'm about to defend Harrington... Sometimes the best way to extract the best value from your opponents is to risk a little. I'm sure you've seen it in an STT when small stack limps in with AA, in the hope that instead of winning HU he can treble or even quadruple through? We also do it when we put someone on a strong A when we flop a set. Wait til the A appears and then (mis)represent that in the hope the guy pushes into us. Sometimes you get a nasty surprise or suffer an outdraw but thats the risk. In the titan league on Monday I was on the SB and had AA. A PLer was on the BB. Blinds were 50/100. I min. raised and the PLer called. Flop was x, x, J. I checked and the PLer pushed. I pushed back and the PLer called with Jx. More than happy with the state of play until a J appears on the turn. I'm not complaining as I felt I was in control of the situation, but sometimes it doesn't work out. Thats poker. I feel dirty now though.... :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tweetypie05 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 40% A/Kx spades 40% pocket pair K-6 15% 98/67s 5% 98/67o Then again maybe this time he has nowt... but pocket 33! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 answer please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 answer please Will get it up today mate :ok (currently in the Mansion game - If I get knocked out before the focus game, I'll do it then :ok) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 thanks, been thinking about this one for ages. Second, third, fourth guessing myself....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 Actually I can pu tthe answer up now, but deal with the scores later....... Negreanu folded and Sam Farha turned over 9 and 2 spades for the flush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhh I can't believe this, but I'm about to defend Harrington... Sometimes the best way to extract the best value from your opponents is to risk a little. I'm sure you've seen it in an STT when small stack limps in with AA, in the hope that instead of winning HU he can treble or even quadruple through? We also do it when we put someone on a strong A when we flop a set. Wait til the A appears and then (mis)represent that in the hope the guy pushes into us. Sometimes you get a nasty surprise or suffer an outdraw but thats the risk. In the titan league on Monday I was on the SB and had AA. A PLer was on the BB. Blinds were 50/100. I min. raised and the PLer called. Flop was x, x, J. I checked and the PLer pushed. I pushed back and the PLer called with Jx. More than happy with the state of play until a J appears on the turn. I'm not complaining as I felt I was in control of the situation, but sometimes it doesn't work out. Thats poker. I feel dirty now though.... :puke Why would you feel dirty defending Harrington? :D He generally knows what he's talking about. I strongly agree with this. It's true that you shouldn't call every +EV situation in a tournament in the same way you would a cash game, but I doubt it's true that you want to eliminate all risk as well. It's just a case of whether you're more likely to pick up the chips/stack advantage by slowplaying a bit, or thru subsequent play. Subsequent play has a level of risk attached to it too. It's risk/reward analysis just like in cash play, you decide which is greater while setting your EV bar a bit higher. And I like the call on the flop, the river was a nightmare card completing both the boat and flush draws and I'm sure he put him on one of the two. If the card wasn't pairing and a spade, and there's only 2 of those from the 46 remaining, I'm sure he intended to get his money in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 Why would you feel dirty defending Harrington? :D He generally knows what he's talking about. I'm anti-Harrington. I have been for so long that I struggle to remember why exactly, although it does have something to do with shoving with any 2 cards. I think this almost allows players to justify bad play/getting lucky. Its very much tongue in cheek anyway, as I can't really criticise til I've read HoH... ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 2 of 10 I'm anti-Harrington. I have been for so long that I struggle to remember why exactly, although it does have something to do with shoving with any 2 cards. I think this almost allows players to justify bad play/getting lucky. Bizarrely, I'm pro-Harrington - for exactly the same reason!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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