Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 League One 6/10 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 3.1 3.6 2.4 3.1 3.6 2.0 3.3 5.0 7/10 2.0 3.3 5.0 1.8 3.4 6.2 1.4 6.0 10.0 2.3 3.3 3.7 ***brentford bristol city change to 2.5 3.3 3.3 1.8 3.4 6.25 2.6 3.3 3.12 League Two 6/10 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.3 2.0 3.1 5.5 1.8 3.3 6.6 2.2 3.2 4.0 7/10 2.5 3.3 3.3 2.5 3.1 3.5 1.8 3.5 5.8 2.3 3.3 2.7 2.2 3.3 4.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Er, care to explian this a bit further!:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 :unsure:unsure:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Glad it's not only me then!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 explain what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 nothing :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libi71 Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Great thread :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Er, care to explian this a bit further!:unsure[/quot sorry i thought it was obvious. the odds represent this coming weekends L1 & L2 matches in date and alphabetic order. i use my own rating method (profitable for the last 6 seasons all English leagues) the best way to use them is back outcomes being offered at odds 10% greater than my estimate of the probabilities. a couple of examples from the weekend just gone :- crewe carlisle my odds 2.0 3.5 4.5 betfair showed 2.4 3.35 3.4 so crewe were a "value" bet for me. northampton port vale my odds 3.0 3.0 3.0 betfair odds 2.28 3.45 3.5 so either back the draw and away OR lay the home. there are occasions when i will not take the bigger odds, eg , for the lincoln bury match i had 1.8 4.0 5.0 betfair 1.72 3.8 6.2 here bury were the value bet.however, in the vast majority of cases i will not get involved with a team i rate as having only a 20% chance just because the odds rate it 16%.essentially this is because these situations come up too infrequently and are therefore unlikely to have any significant longterm effect on my profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Think you'll have to put in the team names too to go with the odds :lol:lol:lol Think this is one for the "Glory Hunters " forum ;);) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 so are you rating Bournemouth vs. Northampton at 3.0, 3.0, 3.0 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 My apologies i can now see where the confusion lies , my fault. League One 6/10 3.0 3.0 3.0 bourne 2.4 3.1 3.6 donc 2.4 3.1 3.6 swansea 2.0 3.3 5.0 yeovil 7/10 2.0 3.3 5.0 forest 1.8 3.4 6.2 bradford 1.4 6.0 10.0 carlisle 2.3 3.3 3.7 brentford ***brentford bristol city change to 2.5 3.3 3.3 1.8 3.4 6.25 crewe 2.6 3.3 3.12 ley or League Two 6/10 2.4 3.3 3.4 darlington 3.0 3.0 3.0 chester 2.5 3.3 3.3 lincoln 2.0 3.1 5.5 mkdons 1.8 3.3 6.6 shrews 2.2 3.2 4.0 wycombe 7/10 2.5 3.3 3.3 mansfield 2.5 3.1 3.5 acc stan 1.8 3.5 5.8 bristol rov 2.3 3.3 2.7 s'port 8/10 sunday 2.2 3.3 4.0 grimsby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 could you write complete fixtures, so we now who are forest playing without looking for fixtures in another browser window ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 could you write complete fixtures' date=' so we now who are forest playing without looking for fixtures in another browser window ;)[/quote'] you deserve a joey barton for that :moon forgot Sundays L1 fixtures brighton b'pool 2.4 3.1 3.6 port vale rotherham 2.2 3.1 4.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 you deserve a joey barton for that :moon :lol :lol :lol Sunday L1 fixtures look much better :ok :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 classic. i think people find it easier on the eye to see the complete fixture. any hint on how you compile these? (you don't have to reveal) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 hope you don't mind me observing your draw prices are pretty radical. Just looking at the Saturday in League One, three of the four (draw) prices are lower than in any of the 552 matches of last season - at least according to the Betexplorer / Betbrain data. Lowest draw SP all season on Betbrain for League 1 was 3.12 Not saying you're wrong, in fact I hope you're right ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 ah - that makes sense now - it's much easier to follow if written plain and clear. May take more time for yourself, but likely to generate more interest and thus more discussion and following.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 hope you don't mind me observing your draw prices are pretty radical. Just looking at the Saturday in League One, three of the four (draw) prices are lower than in any of the 552 matches of last season - at least according to the Betexplorer / Betbrain data. Lowest draw SP all season on Betbrain for League 1 was 3.12 Not saying you're wrong, in fact I hope you're right ! Reason for that are usual prices for draws set by major bookies (3.25). It's ridiculous to have the same prices for draws in probably 70% games in England; actually it's not ridiculous as draws are probably not backed so frequently, so they can afford to set those prices by patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Djordje - You're correct, of course :clap Good luck Stephen ! btw, are you using a neural network for your odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 London Calling ,this has been the most profitable area of betting for me over the last few seasons.I hit 35% of my draw bets at average odds of 3.4 which equates to 19% RoI. muppet77 , i radically changed my method for calculating ratings when many of the ideas i used began to find their way onto the printed page.many of the books available are excellent learning tools and offer useful insights to anyone wanting to compile their own ratings.but i wanted to maintain a uniqueness about my own ratings which would hopefully extend my edge beyond the average. Without giving anything away i calculate and compare performance ratios.ratios are derived using info gleamed from current form interpretation (subjective) and specific data like goals scored and conceded.apart from the use of ratios , which departs from the more conventional methods of compiling ratings , its neccessary to imput a degree of subjectivity to differentiate my ratings from others.i use data collected from 8 complete seasons for the four main english leagues.performance ratio analysis gives me insights into different facets of each teams level of ability.they are , colloatoral ratio,home ratio,away ratio,attack ratio and defence ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 3, 2006 Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Stephen - nice return on your draws. Just getting into ratings myself, but trying to use only objective resources, pref market driven. Pretty much there, just can't settle on a 'form' formula . . . I hope you 'form' continues ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Friday, 06 October 2006 Bournemouth v Northampton, DRAW 3.4 AWAY 3.75 Doncaster v Oldham, DRAW 3.45 Swansea v Tranmere, DRAW 3.4 Chester v Walsall, DRAW 3.4 Darlington v Rochdale, LAY HOME 2.0 Milton Keynes Dons v Peterborough, DRAW 3.7 Wycombe v Torquay, LAY HOME 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 what's the staking plan, Stephen? sorry if I missed that somewhere :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 what's the staking plan, Stephen? sorry if I missed that somewhere :( for the purposes of this thread i will work to a 1pt level stake on each bet (not match).in reality i will on occasions vary the bet size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Saturday, 07 October 2006 Bradford v Huddersfield, HOME WIN 2.36 Carlisle v Millwall, HOME WIN 2.06 Crewe v Gillingham, HOME WIN 1.96 Accrington Stanley v Swindon, DRAW 3.4 Bristol Rovers v Boston Utd, HOME WIN 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 Looks promising so far Stephen, good luck today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 stats 12 matches 13 bets 8 wins profit + 9.73 (inc 3% commission) yeild 74.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 London Calling ,this has been the most profitable area of betting for me over the last few seasons.I hit 35% of my draw bets at average odds of 3.4 which equates to 19% RoI. looks like you picked 6 draws this weekend, and 5 of them were correct. Not too shabby that ! :loon well done, indeed ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 cheers LC and david. bit of a rush job with this weekends odds and one or two may need tweaking.i'm away til friday. Friday, 13 October 2006 Northampton v Bradford, 19:45 3.0 3.0 3.0 Tranmere v Port Vale, 19:45 1.8 3.4 6.2 Saturday, 14 October 2006 Blackpool v Yeovil, 15:00 3.0 3.0 3.0 Bristol City v Crewe, 15:00 1.9 3.5 5.0 Cheltenham v Doncaster, 15:00 2.2 3.3 4.0 Chesterfield v Swansea, 15:00 2.0 3.3 5.0 Gillingham v Nottm Forest, 15:00 2.5 3.3 5.0 Huddersfield v Carlisle, 15:00 1.8 3.4 6.2 Millwall v Bournemouth, 15:00 2.4 3.3 3.4 Oldham v Leyton Orient, 15:00 1.4 6.0 10.0 Rotherham v Brentford, 15:00 2.5 3.3 3.3 Scunthorpe v Brighton, 15:00 1.8 3.4 6.2 Saturday, 14 October 2006 Barnet v Lincoln City, 15:00 3.0 3.0 3.0 Boston Utd v Mansfield, 15:00 1.9 3.4 5.5 Hartlepool v Stockport, 15:00 1.9 3.4 5.5 Hereford v Darlington, 15:00 2.0 3.3 5.0 Macclesfield v Bury, 15:00 3.0 3.0 3.0 Notts County v Bristol Rovers, 15:00 1.8 3.4 6.2 Peterborough v Shrewsbury, 15:00 3.0 3.0 3.0 Rochdale v Chester, 15:00 3.0 3.0 3.0 Swindon v Grimsby, 15:00 1.8 3.4 6.2 Torquay v Accrington Stanley, 15:00 2.2 3.3 4.0 Walsall v Wycombe, 15:00 1.8 3.4 6.2 Wrexham v Milton Keynes Dons, 15:00 2.6 3.3 3.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: My Oddsline for L1 & L2 I have disagreed with you on another thread, but may I say that this one looks very nice, and so I wish you the best of luck! Cheers Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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