Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Could this be the one? :loon (or CTBT1 for short - sounds like a robot from Star Wars! :lol ) Is this the Holy Grail? :unsure I've been betting on football for the last 4 or 5 years and in that time I've looked at, devised, tweaked, tested and backtested (what seems like!) hundreds of systems. Some with more more encouraging results than others! Value Estimations, Ratings, Short Prices, Long Prices, Draws, Trends - I've tried 'em all! And this is the best one I've come up with so far! (Well which doesn't involve Martingale anyway! :spank ) The picks will be from all the leagues in England down to the Conference level, and all selections will be home wins. In the testing I've done these are the results: SummaryBets Placed273Units Staked2,730.00Units Returned3,025.73Profit295.73Yield10.83%Strike Rate42.86%Average Odds2.63Average Stake10.00 273 is not loads of bets, but it's quite a lot. I would be happier with 500 but I just can't wait any longer! (I hope I don't rue this decision! :\ ) We will start with a new bank of 1000pts and each pick will be 10pts <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />I will post the first picks for tonight a bit later.... Edit - Insert Strategy guidelines: The selections are largely statistically based. The theory behind it is looking at teams who are underestimated due to poor recent results and as such are therefore overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? The eternal question! Good Luck Hodgey, I hope this is the one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? The eternal question! Good Luck Hodgey, I hope this is the one! Thanks mate. :ok I hope it is too! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTR Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Those stats certainly are very impressive and promising. Good luck with this, Hodgey! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Best of luck with this Hodgey :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Cheers fella's. :ok Ok here goes with the first picks for tonight: Bournemouth v Bristol City 2.63 Betfred Millwall v Brentford 2.50 Interwetten Bury v Accrington 2.50 Laddies Mansfield v Darlington 2.38 Betfred There will be more, but I'm waiting on some prices to be matched at Betfair. I'll post the rest up well before KO though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? .... good luck with these young fella, the figures don't look too bad. I'm a little curious as to the selection method, as most of these appear to be the underdogs.What were the selections based on? Anyway hope they come good for you fella.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? .... good luck with these young fella, the figures don't look too bad. I'm a little curious as to the selection method, as most of these appear to be the underdogs.What were the selections based on? Anyway hope they come good for you fella.;) Ah now that would be telling! ;) Suffice to say they are underdogs, as most of the selections will be, but I believe the odds are good enough to overcome the strike rate. :ok Cheers for your good wishes. :) A few more: Doncaster v Bradford 2.47 Betfair Grimsby v Hartlepool 2.71 Betfair Macclesfield v Chester 2.50 Betfair Southport v Northwich 2.52 Betfair All Betfair prices are net of commission. Still more to come.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Cheltenham v Northampton 2.43 Betfair Leyton Orient v Gillingham 2.50 Betfair There are two more to come which are still outstanding on Betfair.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? OK final 2 for this evening: Port Vale v Nottm Forest 3.33 Betfair Peterborough v Barnet 1.91 Blue Sq Now just have to wait until 9.30pm...... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? good luck with this hodgey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? .... so with those selections and those odds, you are looking to get four correct from ten selections to maintain the yield. It will be interesting to see if this can be maintained.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alkarkar Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Good luck Hodjey. Just one question. In summary you have selected 273 bets. In how long are these bets the picks? These are the picks of a year, month...? In other words how many bets are you expecting in a month? Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayward2k Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Goodluck mate, will be watching with interest! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Cheers Staffy and Hayward. :ok Good luck Hodjey. Just one question. In summary you have selected 273 bets. In how long are these bets the picks? These are the picks of a year, month...? In other words how many bets are you expecting in a month? Alex I expect this to generate approx 100-120 picks per month. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayward2k Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Plenty of bloody draw's. :puke Hard luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Well that was a ****ing disastrous start. :puke 1 win out of 12. Not quite the strike rate I was looking for. :$ Early days though. Things can only get better. SummaryBets Placed12Units Staked120.00Units Returned23.80Profit(96.20)Yield-80.17%Strike Rate8.33%Average Odds2.53Average Stake10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Plenty of bloody draw's. :puke Hard luck mate. Yeah true, 7 draws. If a couple of those had come in it wouldn't have been too bad. For completeness, here's the results: Bournemouth v Bristol City 2.63 Betfred 0-1 :puke Millwall v Brentford 2.50 Interwetten 1-1 :wall Bury v Accrington 2.50 Laddies 2-2 :wall Mansfield v Darlington 2.38 Betfred 1-0 :nana Doncaster v Bradford 2.47 Betfair 3-3 :wall Grimsby v Hartlepool 2.71 Betfair 1-4 :puke Macclesfield v Chester 2.50 Betfair 1-1 :wall Southport v Northwich 2.52 Betfair 1-2 :puke Cheltenham v Northampton 2.43 Betfair 0-2 :puke Leyton Orient v Gillingham 2.50 Betfair 3-3 :wall Port Vale v Nottm Forest 3.33 Betfair 1-1 :wall Peterborough v Barnet 1.91 Blue Sq 1-1 :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? .... at least the display is colourful! Should have been punting for draws, would have been well into pocket.Never mind, better fortune next time fella.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfp Posted September 27, 2006 Share Posted September 27, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Well if you were betting opposite you would be a rich man right now! :loon Don't get discouraged, it is just the beginning! :) Better days will come soon, good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 27, 2006 Author Share Posted September 27, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Right then, not the best way to start last night but what do they say, if you fall off a horse the best thing to do is get straight back on it again. :\ Well something like that anyway. :unsure I checked back through my test data and there was one other batch when results were 1/12 which resulted in 82pts loss. There was also another occasion where a weekend batch produced just 5/19 for 78pts loss. So these losing sequences do occur, it was just a shame that this thread started with such a sequence. :cry Conversely, there was one weekend batch which produced 13/20 winners generating 148pt profit. :loon It's encouraging to me that despite these longish losing runs, the system still turns in a profit. And also, it should not be too unexpected when dealing with average odds of 2.50ish and strike rates of 40%. :ok So straight back on with the show and two picks for tonight: Boston v Lincoln 3.33 Betfair Bristol Rovers v Hereford 2.20 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iwewe Posted September 27, 2006 Share Posted September 27, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Good luck.. will be following closly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 27, 2006 Author Share Posted September 27, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? 2 for 2 tonight to get 35pts and some confidence back! :D Boston v Lincoln 1-0 :nana Bristol Rovers v Hereford 2-1 :nana SummaryBets Placed14Units Staked140.00Units Returned79.14Profit(60.86)Yield-43.47%Strike Rate21.43%Average Odds2.57Average Stake10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted September 27, 2006 Share Posted September 27, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Nice one Hodgey, it's always interesting to look at other systems on here and see if fellow members' selections are leaning in the same direction as your own. Feels kinda reassuring when they do. All the best with this one.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Cheers Ian :ok One for tonight: (flies in the face of your 10 little boxes though! :\ Although you might like that cos this isn't too hot at the moment! :lol ) Colchester v Ipswich 2.89 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? ..... looks a reasonable selection this one fella, and certainly not that impossible to land! Good luck with the selection.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? ..... looks a reasonable selection this one fella, and certainly not that impossible to land! Good luck with the selection.;) Cheers mate. Decent odds I think. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Good luck with the system Hodgey. Hope it proves successful for you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Played Hodgey :clap Remind me to check your thread before posting on my own:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Could This Be The One? Good luck with the system Hodgey. Hope it proves successful for you :) Thanks a lot mate. You never know - this could be the one! ;) Played Hodgey :clap Remind me to check your thread before posting on my own:D Thanks mate. I watched most of this game and Ipswich were a bit unfortunate to have that goal disallowed and then the last 15 mins Col U were clinging on a bit! But I'll take the win and another 19pts clawed back. Should have started the thread on Wednesday! :eyes :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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