muppet77 Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Even total goals All this boundless optimism has stirred up some interest :ok. I have a few Qs... Is the staking strategy the most important bit, or is it your game selection? What would the yield to level stakes be for your selection criteria over the 13 seasons? It seems incredible to me that you can get such a yield for what is effectively a correct scores system .... will watch with interest. epl since 1993/4: yield +6.3% strike 55.9% bets 1105 games/bet 5 seasons in profit 11/13 seasons in loss 2/13 so maybe there is some backing behind the SYSTEM, with the STRATEGY boosting the yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Even total goals ok, let's recap, using kanga's box idea. cheers mate. :ok BOX 1 stake profit 25/09/2006 Portsmouth Bolton 1 -1 30/09/2006 Sheffield United Middlesboro 3 bets 1 wins 0 strike 0.0% staked 1.00 profit -1.00 yield -100.0% start bank 200 bank now 199 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: Even total goals as in post 1, all odds are 1.90 with bet365. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Even total goals A 6% yield is pretty good for 1000+ bets Muppet anyway :). Your successs all depends on not having a bad run - the lack of one in your analysis is the intersting part for me. Have you looked at backing a draw when your system says go even goals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Even total goals A 6% yield is pretty good for 1000+ bets Muppet anyway :). Your successs all depends on not having a bad run - the lack of one in your analysis is the intersting part for me. Have you looked at backing a draw when your system says go even goals? i do not have the odds entered in, but the % draws for each season are: draws 0607 5 71.4% 0506 18 20.0% 0405 24 32.9% 0304 24 32.9% 0203 18 19.1% 0102 18 23.7% 0001 29 30.5% 9900 18 22.0% 9899 25 29.8% 9798 19 20.2% 9697 17 28.8% 9596 30 29.7% 9495 27 31.8% 9394 33 35.9% ALL 305 27.6% 27.6% equates to a price of 3.62 the ACTUAL number of draws, if betting blind over this time is 27.1%, or 3.69, so i don't think there's any scope there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Even total goals Whats the difference between this and the martingale system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Even total goals Whats the difference between this and the martingale system? the staking strategy is the same, only that i have backtested 13 seasons (5163 games) to see how many rungs up the ladder i could go in the way of consecutive losses. i am well aware of the potential bankruptcy linked to martingale, but my homework seems to make it a viable strategy. coupling this staking strategy with a system that selects even goals, it has proven to generate around 31.2% yield from 1105 selections, being successful with the yields varying from +27.5% to +39.5% : successful for EACH of the 13 seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Even total goals Cheers Muppet, interesting stuff. I just thought that maybe you were picking up on a psychological factor such as tightening the defence after a heavy defeat, or maybe desperate to keep a non-losing run of games going that might have ended in draws and therefore even goals games. Obviously not - must be something else :). GL mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals BOX 1 stake result profit 25/09/2006 Portsmouth Bolton 1 L -1.00 30/09/2006 Sheffield United Middlesboro 3 L -3.00 9 start bank 200 bank now 196.00 all odds 1.90 bets 2 wins 0 strike 0.0% av stake 2.00 av profit -2.00 total staked 4.00 profit -4.00 yield -100.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals stats not good at the mo, but still early days. i will post the next predictions after today's games. it looks like there will be a few simultaneous bets - so the boxes will be involved. the stake for box 1 is raised to 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals I like your idea very much and i have something you might want to think about.... If you select the matches with the lowest odds for a draw, your system might become more profitable. That way the bookies chose the matches for you and there will be plenty more selections per day because then you can bet on all the leagues, not just the english. To look for a draw is the only way i can see one predicting an even result. Hope i contributed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals If you select the matches with the lowest odds for a draw what do you mean mate? if i have three selections to decide between i should pick the one with the lowest odds? if this is what you mean, then i am going to go with kanga's box idea, as it meets my requirements. i take your idea about lower priced draws seeming to be more likely to end up evenly scored. i have checked all games for the past 6 epl seasons, and by selecting short priced games doesn't seem to increase the strike rate of even. eg all draws priced 2.7 to 3 (the 11% 'most likely' draws by the bookie) gave an evens strike of 55.6% all draws priced 2.7 to 3.2 (the top 37% most likely draws) gave a strike of 52.6% evens. all draws priced 2.7 to 3.3 (the top 64% most likely draws) gave a strike of 51.8% evens. so bearing in mind i could get a strike of 55.9% i'm not sure whether or not the short priced draws actually matters. saying that, the shortest 11% (2.7 to 3) had a strike of 55.6%, and the largest 11% (odds of 4 to 10) had a strike of 47.6% so that's an improvement of 8%........:drums i am not sure whether i will select ceratain matches, based on their odds price - this will restrict the number of selections for bets. i do take the idea in theory though Huckleberry.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals what do you mean mate? if i have three selections to decide between i should pick the one with the lowest odds? if this is what you mean, then i am going to go with kanga's box idea, as it meets my requirements. i take your idea about lower priced draws seeming to be more likely to end up evenly scored. i have checked all games for the past 6 epl seasons, and by selecting short priced games doesn't seem to increase the strike rate of even. eg all draws priced 2.7 to 3 (the 11% 'most likely' draws by the bookie) gave an evens strike of 55.6% all draws priced 2.7 to 3.2 (the top 37% most likely draws) gave a strike of 52.6% evens. all draws priced 2.7 to 3.3 (the top 64% most likely draws) gave a strike of 51.8% evens. so bearing in mind i could get a strike of 55.9% i'm not sure whether or not the short priced draws actually matters. saying that, the shortest 11% (2.7 to 3) had a strike of 55.6%, and the largest 11% (odds of 4 to 10) had a strike of 47.6% so that's an improvement of 8%........:drums i am not sure whether i will select ceratain matches, based on their odds price - this will restrict the number of selections for bets. i do take the idea in theory though Huckleberry.:ok I hear you but why restrict yourself to english football? If you select the shortpriced draws, then you could chose from all the games hence increasing the number of bets. Can you please tell me where you get your stats from? I want to help :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals Can you please tell me where you get your stats from? i think i can mention football-data.co.uk that's where i get the results from. i use these in my own excel spreadsheet to select games. I hear you but why restrict yourself to english football? well, i have an interest in the premiership and so bet on that. as i said in a post in this thread, the championship could produce a very similar yield (post 11), but this would require more money. with the staking strategy i am confident of hitting 30%ish yield on the premiership. :hope why should i look at other leagues? the yield will not increase - the staking strategy maintains it around 30% (see post number 9) if you are looking to increase profit - then up your stakes for my selections. the stakes could get high though (see post 6) hope that makes sense. thanks for the ideas and interest. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals i think i can mention football-data.co.uk that's where i get the results from. i use these in my own excel spreadsheet to select games. well, i have an interest in the premiership and so bet on that. as i said in a post in this thread, the championship could produce a very similar yield (post 11), but this would require more money. with the staking strategy i am confident of hitting 30%ish yield on the premiership. :hope why should i look at other leagues? the yield will not increase - the staking strategy maintains it around 30% (see post number 9) if you are looking to increase profit - then up your stakes for my selections. the stakes could get high though (see post 6) hope that makes sense. thanks for the ideas and interest. ;) Well, the more games you spread your money on the safer your money is. Thanks for the link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals Well, the more games you spread your money on the safer your money is. true to a certain extent, but if i ran this sys + strat on say the major euro leagues it would require a lot of dough and many, many boxes. i may just consider using championship games aswell - bringing the average number of selections per weekend to around 2 for the epl and 4 for the champ = 6 in total (and then some for midweekers). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals true to a certain extent, but if i ran this sys + strat on say the major euro leagues it would require a lot of dough and many, many boxes. i may just consider using championship games aswell - bringing the average number of selections per weekend to around 2 for the epl and 4 for the champ = 6 in total (and then some for midweekers). I look forward to see your results Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals FT even odd HT even 53% 47% FT even odd HT odd 48% 52% just another quick piece of research, it seems that games have a very slight tendancy to stay as they are at HT on to FT, by around 4 or 5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals HT/FT ev ev 28.6% ev odd 25.6% odd odd 24% odd ev 21.8% 100% ....with even/even being the most likely HT/FT outcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals total goals ht ft evens? sample size 0 55.8% 591 1 47.9% 693 2 47.6% 401 3 47.0% 168 4 63.6% 33 5 33.3% 9 6 20.0% 5 1900 .....and a nil nil at ht sets up the best chance for an even result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals oh shoot, the box idea was MetallicIan's. sorry mate - credit is due.:ok :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy check out his box threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemoz Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals hi just done a bit of research so here goes, hope its helpful season 04/05 blackburn 10 games no evens norwich 8 (relegated liverpool/everton 7 games villa 6 games spurs/bolton/birmngm/boro/arsenal/newc 5 games season 05/06 sunderland 10 relegated 4of them carried onto this season boro/city 8 chel/newc/ bmghm(relegated) 7 fulham 6 utd/bolt/whu/wigan/pompey/wba(relegated) 5 Dont know if im talking c**p but just thought it might be useful. stemoz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Even total goals cheers stemoz, good work. will bear those stats in mind. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals BOX 1 stake result profit 25/09/2006 prem Portsmouth Bolton 1 L -1.00 30/09/2006 prem Sheffield United Middlesboro 3 L -3.00 03/10/2006 conf Grays Exeter 9 27 81 BOX 2 stake result profit 03/10/2006 conf Morecambe Rushden & D 1 3 9 27 81 BOX 3 stake result profit 03/10/2006 conf St. Albans Forest Green 1 3 9 27 81 BOX 4 stake result profit 03/10/2006 conf Stafford Rangers Dag and Red 1 3 9 27 81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals i will be taking on div1, div2 and conf until the champ and prem resume after the international weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemoz Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals cheltenham Havent Drawn In Their First Six Games So Maybe They Are A Possibility Away To Yeovil? stemoz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals good spot mate, but i select using other criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemoz Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals sorry, that should read 12 games:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals a great stat mate, but that's not how i select games - those that are 'overdue' a draw. remember coins don't have memories. 12 heads in a row doesn't increase the chance of a tail next time. it's still 50:50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Re: Even total goals I can not agree with you, muppet77... You can not compare people to coins. Sport is a human game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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