libi71 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. then i found this: so 'evens' does NOT include 0-0. Mathematically this is correct, as 0 is not an even number, AFAIK. Oh, I know, this does not help ;), but they have to exclude something if they give 2.0 for even and not even. Cheeky of them, though, casual punter might fall for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. yeah it sounded too good to be true. i can't believe betfair don't have this market and do have some ultra random ones. i think 1.90 is about as good as it gets, but i will check betdaq before this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dosheroonie Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. then i found this: so 'evens' does NOT include 0-0. Sorry mate, I didn't check the rules before posting :$ . Should have known it was too good to be true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. no worries boss. thanks for being on the look out. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. ok i have decided, finally, to increase the stake by 3, then by 2.3 for the rest of the bets. i will play premiership and champ unless it's really quiet. the staking sequence is: losses stake mult factor 0 1.00 0 1 3.00 3 2 6.90 2.3 3 15.87 2.3 4 36.50 2.3 5 83.95 2.3 6 193.09 2.3 one bet for friday night, a few more for saturday, posted when this finishes: BOX 7 stake result profit 10/10/2006 conf York Cambridge 1 L -1.00 13/10/2006 champ Southend Coventry 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. if u say u generated 30% yields for seasons since 93/94 did u test that on actual even/odd odds ? if not, you will exeprience harsh reality... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. well i used 1.90. bet365 gives this and nothing else for EVERY match in ANY league. they obviously think it's not worth pricing it up differently for each match. i have never found it to be below 1.90 for any single game this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. well i used 1.90. bet365 gives this and nothing else for EVERY match in ANY league. they obviously think it's not worth pricing it up differently for each match. i have never found it to be below 1.90 for any single game this season. ok just to note, in that case its right, if u did that on match odds or anything else it, it'd be wrong. anyway, evens/odds are distributed 48/52 from some recent premiership year i saw and, 52/48, for like 8000 records i have in some db,various leagues.. so i gues fair odds are around 1.92/2.08 which is what is available, so how do you make ur selections ? should i read ur upper posts ;) ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. lamunxo, from earlier: after looking at all 5193 games since 9394 season, i have worked out the FAIR % to be 52.1% for even goals, or 1.92. that's very close to the 1.90 on offer on bet365, without even applying the selection system. with the system applied, 1106 games were selected with a strike of 56.0% or odds of 1.79 - giving value to the 1.90 on offer. by using the trebling staking this gave an impressive yield of 31.2% for these 1106 games. i have not divulged exactly how i select, but it is based on past records of even/odd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. lamunxo, from earlier: i have not divulged exactly how i select, but it is based on past records of even/odd. ok. i wonder, can u past here how was the system doing per month or atleast year, from 93 ? Month - Bets - Correct - Profit - Yield ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. sure mate. premiership with multipier x3: 1.79 fair odds ALL 5 1106 55.9% 7952 2479 31.2% ga/bet bets wins strike staked profit yield 0607 11 8 3 37.5% 22 2.7 12.3% 0506 4 90 52 57.8% 1412 408.2 28.9% 0405 5 73 42 57.5% 301 101.8 33.8% 0304 5 73 40 54.8% 265 96 36.2% 0203 4 94 50 53.2% 1466 422.6 28.8% 0102 5 76 39 51.3% 498 157.5 31.6% 0001 4 95 51 53.7% 679 208.3 30.7% 9900 5 82 44 53.7% 524 167.6 32.0% 9899 5 84 51 60.7% 252 99.5 39.5% 9798 4 94 47 50.0% 806 244.7 30.4% 9697 6 59 33 55.9% 529 145.5 27.5% 9596 4 101 55 54.5% 457 156.7 34.3% 9495 5 85 51 60.0% 381 133.9 35.1% 9394 5 92 60 65.2% 360 134 37.2% championship: 1.95 fair odds ALL 5 1567 51.2% 62893 17241.4 27.4% ga/bet bets wins strike staked profit yield 0607 7 20 9 45.0% 148 40.1 27.1% 0506 5 107 55 51.4% 1531 443.1 28.9% 0405 4 124 69 55.6% 532 184.3 34.6% 0304 4 129 54 41.9% 11733 3163 27.0% 0203 4 140 83 59.3% 1506 452.9 30.1% 0102 4 126 59 46.8% 1494 430.7 28.8% 0001 5 105 53 50.5% 1923 545.1 28.3% 9900 5 118 65 55.1% 626 208.1 33.2% 9899 5 101 54 53.5% 661 194 29.3% 9798 4 124 61 49.2% 752 234.1 31.1% 9697 5 117 68 58.1% 1061 326 30.7% 9596 5 108 55 50.9% 4862 1330.1 27.4% 9495 4 129 59 45.7% 34089 9126.5 26.8% 9394 5 119 58 48.7% 1975 563.4 28.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. 1. i dont fully understand ur staking plan, some progressive staking when u multiply on losses -- martignale basicaly, this somewhat never works or needs extremely large banks...every run has bad runs in any length... u prolly know that... anyway, i wonder can u post the upper info with flat staking ? the upper results are very good i wonder if its not much affected by the staking which u use 2. yes betdaq has markets and odds are definately beter than b365, 1.98+ instead of 1.9 u should get at no prob. i think, betfair actually will open these markets soon if enough ppl hammer them about it, as u said some of their current markets are really funny already... 3. last thing, the yields are very stable over seasons, how stable are you doing over months ? gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. mate., with respect read the post (many!) :) i have analysed how often the stake increases, and to what level. level stakes for the prem yielded +6% for 13 seasons. i have not analysed month by month, but will produce a profit/yield graph over time if that helps. thanks for the interest. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. ok. level stakes mean flat stakes right ? even 6% @ 1.9 is nice then... my point is that if u apply long enought martingnale on any system u'll boost the yields but as in 93/94, 03/04 may not be able to actually take the risk anyways, gl with this.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. The yield is only temporary. When you lose (which you will in time), the yield will drop. Martingale basically :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. hi huckleberry mate. i am well aware that this is martingale. this has been discussed earlier. for those who keep asking, my point is this: (a) i think i have an edge over the bookies with the SYSTEM - example - whn applying level 1pt stakes i get 6% yield over 1106 bets over 13 and a bit seasons. this eliminates the martingale like staking. please read post 31. (b) i have looked at how often i would have gone to each level and altered the stakes accordingly, so that i can afford it. i have assessed as best as i can the risk. please read post 6 and 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. Ok, so whats the actual benefit of the martingale stakingsystem? Why not use level stakes? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. LA MUNXO, This is prem mult factor x3: yield (above) over 13.25 seasons profit (below) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie4 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. well i for one like it..When are you posting up Saturdays games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. huckleberry, ur not right that way you can boost yields problem is size of stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. hi huckleberry mate. i am well aware that this is martingale. this has been discussed earlier. for those who keep asking, my point is this: (a) i think i have an edge over the bookies with the SYSTEM - example - whn applying level 1pt stakes i get 6% yield over 1106 bets over 13 and a bit seasons. this eliminates the martingale like staking. please read post 31. (b) i have looked at how often i would have gone to each level and altered the stakes accordingly, so that i can afford it. i have assessed as best as i can the risk. please read post 6 and 9. b) :) yea u altered it according to past but u not know what future will bring, thats why martingnale never work. imo its better to take 6% yield and make heavier stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. muppet: about graphs, nice, they quite show the drops when martingnale needs bigger stakes, the profit however look too uniform to me, are u sure u dont have error somewhere ? gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. cheers for advice guys. ;) nice one. there are no errors in the graphs mate - that how i have it. saturday's games arriving in a few minutes. one loss last night - southend coventry. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. all odds are 1.90 from bet365, apart from Middlesboro Everton which is currently 1.98 on betdaq, after 5% commission equates to around 1.931. BOX 7 stake result profit 10-Oct conf York Cambridge 1 L -1.00 13-Oct champ Southend Coventry 3 L -3.00 14-Oct prem Arsenal Watford 6.9 BOX 8 stake result profit 14-Oct prem Middlesboro Everton 1 BOX 9 stake result profit 14-Oct prem Portsmouth West Ham 1 BOX 10 stake result profit 14-Oct champ Burnley Hull 1 BOX 11 stake result profit 14-Oct champ Sheffield Weds Barnsley 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. la munxo, for speed i broke the 3x multiplier premiership 13 seasons into brackets of 11 games (average bets per month from the prem) there were 101 'months': 101 yield % n % 100-90 0 0.0% 90-80 0 0.0% 80-70 5 5.0% 70-60 5 5.0% 60-50 13 12.9% 50-40 22 21.8% 40-30 27 26.7% 30-20 16 15.8% 20-10 4 4.0% 10-0 2 2.0% 0--10 0 0.0% -10 -20 1 1.0% -20 - 30 1 1.0% -30 -40 0 0.0% -40 -50 1 1.0% -50 -60 0 0.0% -60 -70 1 1.0% -70 -80 1 1.0% -80 -90 2 2.0% -90 -100 0 0.0% av stake per month £78.90 av profit per month £24.55 av yield per month 31% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. .......so 7 losing 'months' and 94 winning ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2006 Author Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. tits up today. bring on the next round. BOX 7 stake result profit 10-Oct conf York Cambridge 1 L -1.00 13-Oct champ Southend Coventry 3 L -3.00 14-Oct prem Arsenal Watford 6.9 L -6.90 BOX 8 stake result profit 14-Oct prem Middlesboro Everton 1 L -1.00 BOX 9 stake result profit 14-Oct prem Portsmouth West Ham 1 W 0.90 BOX 10 stake result profit 14-Oct champ Burnley Hull 1 W 0.90 BOX 11 stake result profit 14-Oct champ Sheffield Weds Barnsley 1 L -1.00 start bank200 bank now 201.50 all odds 1.90 bets 18 wins 8 strike 44.4% av stake 2.66 av profit 0.08 total staked 47.90 profit 1.50 yield 3.1% 47.90 1.50 3.1% level staked profit yield BOX 1 complete 13.00 4.10 31.5% BOX 2 complete 13.00 4.10 31.5% BOX 3 complete 1.00 0.90 90.0% BOX 4 complete 4.00 1.70 42.5% BOX 5 complete 1.00 0.90 90.0% BOX 6 complete 1.00 0.90 90.0% BOX 7 1 10.90 -10.90 -100.0% BOX 8 1 1.00 -1.00 -100.0% BOX 9 complete 1.00 0.90 90.0% BOX 10 complete 1.00 0.90 90.0% BOX 11 1 1.00 -1.00 -100.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. .......so 7 losing 'months' and 94 winning ones. oh lol i was looking at that and didnt understand... now i do,, only 7 loosing months is very good indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 15, 2006 Author Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. i'm sure that there's a scientific principle that observation affects the experiment. Schrodinger's cat - quantum indeterminacy or the observer's paradox that's just what happened this weekend.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie4 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. are there any today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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