NFL Wk. 2.

[TazaD]

4-2 (+1.87) Right...firstly I'll say that I won't actually be placing any of these bets just yet...unless it looks likely that there will be a decent line change. Secondly, I'm scared stiff!! Big favs are generally not the way to the gold house or a rocket car in this league, but at this stage I'll be laying roughly 59 points!!! :unsure (give or take one or two :D ) Everyone loves a good trend, so here goes... Since '89 League: 2-15 ats (Av. loss 20.4!) away 10+ dog, off any ats loss as a home fav of 3 or less, if this weeks opp was last away. [Cleveland & Tenn] (0-3 last season; SL 28-45 Indi @ +13.5, Jets 3-16 NE @ +10, Oak 3-22 Denv @ +13) Basically, these 2 teams are every bit as bad as they looked this week, and SD/Cinci (happy to be back home it seems) really should be able to run away with big wins. They wil need to of course, given the -10/-10.5 spreads, but I think I'd take both up to 14! As expected Cleveland didn't fire a shot on the weekend. Frye was hurried all day, was sacked 14 times!!...threw for just 4.9 y/p with 2 picks. The running game produced just 41 yards in 13 attempts (minus scrambles), and that was against a below par NO D. Cinci's main concern is their pass D, but I just don't think Frye will have the protection/time/options (Jurevicius out now too) or talent to take advantage. Rudi Johnson will have another massive day given the Browns allowed 150 yards rushing and Palmer will have multiple options (the Housh should be back) Cleveland do have a very good recent record @ Cinci, but I just can't see them being able to score enough to keep it close. Same goes for the Titans. No stability @ QB at all. A rookie and a guy still learning the system who has been a bust for the last few years anyway! Against this hungry SD defense it will be a long and ugly day I suspect. SD's running game will be outstanding all year, and Rivers definately showed enough today to suggest he can make big throws when necessary. Add that the Chargers are 14-3-1 last 18 v. losing teams, and we should have another blow-out. League: 10-1 (Av. win 15.4) home 7+ fav on a Sunday off a Thursday game. [Miami] 8-0 (av. win 18.3!) if they were away. Seems that when a team gets a few extra days to plan/rest up for a game against a team they "should" beat, they make sure they do! Buffalo only scored 10 points after the opening fumble return, and managed just 12 FD's for the game, and I think Miami's D is better still. The 'Phins should be able to get something going on the ground this week to take the pressure of Culpepper, so he can manage the game, rather than trying to make big plays and forcing poor throws. Miami won the home meeting last year 24-23, but Buff were 14-0 up within 5 minutes after burning Miami deep for 46 and 54 yard TD passes very early. I'm expecting Miami to be a lot more focussed this time, and these are the games they have to win since they consider themselves a genuine play-off team this year. League: 10-4 (12-2 this no...av. win 20.4!!) home 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as away fav of 7 or less, if opp was last a 'dog. [Chic] (1-1 last season; Sea 41-3 SF as -16, Pits 35-21 Det as -16) League: 1-12-3 (1-15 this no!...Av. loss 22.1!!) away 7+ dog, off any ats win as home dog, if opp won by at least 7 ats as any away fav. [Det] (0-1 in 2005; Jets 3-30 Caro as +9) ...there's 2 common games in those trends, so combined that is a 25-3 ats (at this number) system!! Effectively both say the same thing. Chicago are playing very well, winning big as an away fav, and the line is too low because Det performed above expectations, but they are still rubbish, as witnessed by them being a home dog in the first place. Grossman threw for over 10 y/p, the running gme was solid, the defense always solid...The Lions are still very much rebuilding and will struggle, esp. on the road this season. Specifically, in this game I doubt if they will have any success on the ground at all (they had just 39 rushing yards last week), which will inevitably lead to a pick or 2, or 3. ...oh, and anyone who doesn't believe things aren't quite right in the Lions camp....Marinelli spent the previous 10 seasons coaching Tampa Bay's defensive line and coached the unit in place of Joe Cullen, who was arrested twice recently on suspicion of drunken driving and because police say he was driving nude. Cullen will be back to coach in the next game at Chicago, Marinelli said. :unsure I rest my case. League: 10-1 (Av. win 20.2) home 10+ fav, off any ats win as away fav of 3 or less, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [indi] (2-0 last season; Den 27-0 Jets as -13, SD 34-10 Oak as -11) League: 1-8 (Av. loss 24.9!) away 10+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a home dog, if total is >44.5. [Houston] Again, 1 common game here, so a combined 17-2 trend. Probably my least favourite pick of the week. It's tough taking Indi as a big fav when they will have one of the most negative rushing differentials this season...but, having said that, they did play the Giants who are one of the very best running teams...and also it didn't matter! :wall Pretty strong trend, saying that Indi did the job last week, and should go on their merry way playing a crap team at home who under performed last week anyway...and the high total shows what we already know, that Houston's D is crap. McNabb 300+ yards, 3 TD's...over 5 y/r, so Manning will have fun, and hopefully they can get something going on the ground. One thing Indi's D is good at is rushing the passer, and Carr was sacked 5 times last week, and continues to throw poor balls and make bad decisions under pressure. Indi dominated the meeting last year...won by just 14, but fumbled twice. They had 26-11 FD's and 419-209 yards...besides, 14 will do the trick here anyway. ;) League: 18-1-1!! (Av. WIN 6.4...16.4 SU!!) home dog of 3 or less, off a SU win of 3 or less as an away dog of <7. [Min] 10-0 (9-1 SU!!...Av. WIN 10.9!!) if the total is <40. I can't really understand why Carolina are favs in this game anyway? Coming off a terrible performance, getting completely out-played at home, are people banking on the 'bounce-back' factor here?? :\ Delhomme threw for just 4.7 y/p and was sacked 4 times...which isn't likely to improve in a hurry, given their starting left guard is now out for the season. I know Minni are learning a new system and aren't the greatest of teams themselves, but they do have a solid running game, Brad Johnson doesn't make mistakes and can make a big play when needed, and their defense looks to have improved significantly. I don't think they deserve to be home dogs here...hopefully a +3 will be available somewhere...but very tempted by the ML as it is. :ok League: 3-9 (1-11 this no...av. loss 18.2) away 10+ dog off a 10+ ats home loss, if opp is also off a 10+ ats loss. [KC] Basically says that they are crap and the line is too low because of Denver's (non!) performance last week....and I agree. KC are about the worst team in football right now! A makeshift o-line in progress, a terrible defense and now a no. 2 QB....and bascially Denver moved the ball easily enough, but turned it over 5 times. They won't have to worry about Plummer throwing it away this week, because he might not have to throw it at all! The Broncos ran for 161 yards @ 6.4 y/r! But 2 early fumbles lead to Jake playing catch-up and forcing silly throws. If they protect the ball this week, they should be able to run up a big enough score to cover the -10 easily. They've won the last 5 home meetings by an av. of 13.8 ppg, inc. a 20 point win last year. So there we go...looking at 6 very big favs and a small home dog. No totals really interest me this week, although I suspect Minni/Carolina under 38 looks pretty solid. The good news about taking the big favs this week, is that only 2 of them appear to be big public plays...Cinci and Indi both getting over 70% of the action early....so I might go ahead and play them early on, esp. Indi to get them below 14. Surprisingly Denver getting less than 50%!!...but again, I suspect that will change closer to game time when people finally realise that Green is out. I wouldn't mind getting them at -10, so will take that if I find it early. :ok Think I'm just about typed out now... ...oh, but since we want people with senses of humour here... How do you pick out a blind man in a nudist colony?...It's not hard. ;)

[maj69er]

Re: NFL Wk. 2. Lines from USa as of 11.20PM BST Oakland getting 11 points headstart..god damn....

NFL FOOTBALL - WEEK 2 Sunday, September 17th
Time	Gm #	Team	Score	Opener	CRIS	The Greek	WWTS	Sportsbook	Jazz
09/17 10:00a	401 402	OAKLAND BALTIMORE		36 10½	34 12	34 11	34 11½	35 11
09/17 10:00a	403 404	HOUSTON TEXANS INDIANAPOLIS		47 13½	47 13	47 13	47 13	47 13½	47 13½-05
09/17 10:00a	405 406	CLEVELAND CINCINNATI		42 11	42 10	42½ 10½-05	42 10½	42 10½	42 10½
09/17 10:00a	407 408	BUFFALO MIAMI		37 7	37 6½	37 7-05	37 6½	37 6½	37 6
09/17 10:00a	409 410	DETROIT CHICAGO		32 8½	32 9	32 8½	32 8½	32 8½	32 9
09/17 10:00a	411 412	CAROLINA MINNESOTA		2½ 38	2 37½	2½-05 37½	2 37½	2 38
09/17 10:00a	413 414	NY GIANTS PHILADELPHIA		42 3½	43 3	42 3-15	42 3-15	42 3	42 3 -15
09/17 10:00a	415 416	TAMPA BAY ATLANTA		36 5½	35 5½	36½ 5½	36 5½	36 5½	36 5½
09/17 10:00a	417 418	NEW ORLEANS GREEN BAY		36½ 1	2 37½	2 37½	2 38	2 38½	1½ 38
09/17 1:05p	419 420	ST. LOUIS SAN FRANCISCO		3-20 44	3-05 44	3-05 44	3 44	3 44½	3 44
09/17 1:05p	421 422	ARIZONA SEATTLE		47 6½	47 7	47 7-05	47 7	47 7	47 7
09/17 1:15p	423 424	NEW ENGLAND NY JETS		4½ 37½	5½ 36½	6 37	6 37	6 37	6 -05 37
09/17 1:15p	425 426	TENNESSEE SAN DIEGO		40 11	38 11½	38½ 11½-05	38½ 11½	38½ 12
09/17 1:15p	427 428	KANSAS CITY DENVER		43 8	40 11	40½ 10½	40 10½	40½ 11	40 11
09/17 5:15p	429 430	WASHINGTON DALLAS		37 6½	37 5½	37u15 5½	37 5½	37 5½
NFL FOOTBALL - WEEK 2 Monday, September 18th
Time	Gm #	Team	Score	Opener	CRIS	The Greek	WWTS	Sportsbook	Jazz
09/18 5:30p	431 432	PITTSBURGH JACKSONVILLE		pk 36½	pk 36½	37u15 1-05	pk 36½	1 36½	36½ pk