DAC Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Basically, I'm trying to create my own arb. I have a considerable knowledge of rugby, especially Celtic League and whilst I know this system isn't guaranteed I really couldn't see my selections being beaten the the winning margins I've listed. If anyone can see a problem with my maths or even the basic structure of the system then It'd bee great to hear from you. I think I can make between 8% and 20% on any fixture that meets my critera. Cheers. Ospreys –6 @ 10/11 £50.00= £95.45 – Profit £45.45 £45.45 Capital to Use: Cap Draw: 20-1 @ Paddy Power – x £2.75 = £57.75 RC £42.70 Draw: 29-1@ Extrabet – x 2.00 = £60.00 Remaining Capital £40.70 Winning Margins Ospreys 1-5 – 6-1 @ Ladbrokes – x £8.25= £57.75 RC £32.45 Handicap Bet on Ospreys Covered Winning Margins Conn 1-5 – 7-1 @ Ladbrokes – x £8.00 = £64.00 RC £24.45 Conn 6-10 – 9-1 @ Ladbrokes – x £6.50 = £58.50 RC £17.95 Conn 11-15 - 12-1 @ Ladbrokes – x £4.75 = £61.75 RC £13.2 Conn 16-20 - 20-1 @ Bet365 – x £3.00 = £63.00 RC £10.20 Conn 21-25 - 28-1 @ Bet365 x £2.00 = £58.50 RC £8.20 Conn 26-30 – 40-1 @ Bet365 x £1.5 = £61.50 RC £6.70 Conn 31-35 – 50-1 @ Bet365 x £1.25 = £63.75 RC £5.45 RC - Remaining Capital So: The only way i can lose is if Connacht beat the Ospreys by more than 36 points. Just for the record. If Ospreys win 1-5 = £5.45 Profit Draw = £10.00 profit Cap Draw = £7.75 Profit Conn Win: Min Profit: £8.50 Max Profit £14.00 Plus Unused Remaing Capital of £5.45 Min Profit: £13.95 Max Profit £19.45 Can anyone see any holes in this? Feed back greatfully received. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're doing, but according to my calculations you're staking £90 in total, but if (for example) it's a draw, you only get a return of £60, so you'll make a $30 loss. Similarly. all the other bets apart from Ospreys -6 return around £60, so will involve around a £30 loss. Or am I completely misunderstanding? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Slapdash, I'm only staking £50.00 in total and am using the projected £45.45 winnings as capital to try and create the quasi-arb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... If the game ends in a draw I will have lost £50.00 but will have had £60.00 returned for my £2.00 Bet - obviously making a profit of £8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Sorry, I still don't follow. The bets you've listed are a £50 bet on Ospreys -6 and several smaller bets adding up to stakes of £40 (I make it). Which of these bets are you actually proposing to make? If the big bet is not included, don't you lose all your stake if the Ospreys win by more than 6? And if the big bet is included, don't you lose money unless they win by more than 6? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... My head hurts! :eyes Normally quite good at seeing these things but unfortunately not today. :$ Will attempt to re-read it over the weekend DAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... At first glance it looks ok and your figures do seem to add up but I'm not sure if there is a mathematical reason why this won't work and as maths is not really my strongest suit it might be better if someone with more maths knowledge checked out your figures. I do think, however, that the arb should be able to be worked out to return equal profit; ie £95.50 return from each part of the arb and when I checked this out it you would need a total stake of approx £112.25 meaning that your loss would be -£16.75 for each part of the 'arb' which would equal a -14.92% 'arb'. If you leave out the longest odds you can roughly check the figures out using the 10 way arb calculator at www.arbcruncher.com. BTW I have been arbing for around 5 years and the best multi bet arb I ever found was a 9 way which involved using 1x2 O/U and correct score odds. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Can I be your bookmaker You give me 50+2.75+2+8.25+8+6.50+4.75+3+2+1.5+1.25= 90 pounds I will pay you out for the draw at 20-1 =57.75 You will onlly win 55 pounds plus your original stake of 2.75 pounds I will keep the rest 2nd thoughts I ll give you 30-1 on the draw and I will still make a profit Sorry to dampen you enthusiasm but please dont try this with real money regards ray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Not sure this works, cant get the figures to look right to me. The above post is wrong though. The cap draw is 20/1. If you pay out on this then that means Conn won by 6 so you have to payout on the Conn 6-10 bet also, which is £58.50 leaving you a loss of £26.25(you being the bookie) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Not sure this works, cant get the figures to look right to me. The above post is wrong though. The cap draw is 20/1. If you pay out on this then that means Conn won by 6 so you have to payout on the Conn 6-10 bet also, which is £58.50 leaving you a loss of £26.25(you being the bookie) I think these are "European handicaps" (i.e., with a draw option). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... I think these are "European handicaps" (i.e.' date=' with a draw option).[/quote'] But surely it still means that they draw on the handicap. ie. 6pt handicap so score would be Osprey 20 - Conn 14, so after the handicap the teams draw. This would result in Conn winning 6-10 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Must admit, i'm a bit confused as to what Ospreys –6 meant. But if only one of these selections wins, i'm afraid you are losing. I think as raylin points out, your original £50 stake needs to be counted as a loss if any of the other selections win. this means you did not win the £45.45 bet to finance the other bets - which is where it will cost you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Ah! I think Conn 6-10 means Conn win by 6-10 points, though. A handicap draw would be them losing by 6. I think the bets are all mutually exclusive: at most one of them can win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... Ah! I think Conn 6-10 means Conn win by 6-10 points, though. A handicap draw would be them losing by 6. I think the bets are all mutually exclusive: at most one of them can win. Sorry my bad. Of course its that way round. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 9, 2006 Share Posted September 9, 2006 Re: Advice on my "Guaranteed" System Please.... in this scenario only one bet can win per game if osprey win by more than 6 points a profit is made If any other result you need to cover the full stake of 90pounds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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