rustyg Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Hi All, I'm new to the forum and have come up with the following system: Using the main 4 English football leagues, I have a computer program which calculates the % probability of the home, draw and away results for each match in the English football leagues. If the draw result in a match is ranked within 2.5% of the highest draw percentage for that league, it will be a selection. I have tried this on paper for the last 2 seasons and it have a win/loss of 96/179. This works out at a break even price of 2.87. This is a real system, I will use betfair prices and record PL with betfair comm deducted (5% comm). I will start with a bank of 1000 points and stake 10 points per match, and will continue until the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Welcome and Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system :welcome Does this software have a name? Just I bought one the other day (Football Score Predictor), only to find the disc was knackered. The company have withdrawn it from sale too now due to 'the fact you can't import new teams that get promoted from the conference'. Now hunting for something else to run in tandem with my trebles thread..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Thanks very much pinhofap. FleetFanatic, no name, its just a program written by a friend of mine from University. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system OK no problem - good luck, will watch with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Draws for this weekend: Derby v Sunderland - 10pts @ 3.35 Southend v Sheff Wed - 10pts @ 3.35 Bournmouth v Crewe - 10pts @ 3.4 Boston v Stockport - 10pts @ 3.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Not the best start in the world - 1 out of 4 correct!! Derby 1 Sunderland 2 :@ -10pts Southend 0 Sheff Wed 0 :ok +22pts Bournmouth 1 Crewe 0 :@ - 10pts Boston 2 Stockport 1 :@ - 10pts On the day -8 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 992 Total Staked: 40 W/L: 1/3 Profit/Loss: -8 Yield: -20.00% [url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/sunderland/default.stm] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Nader Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system As you said Rusty, not exactly the best of starts but it's early days yet. All the best for your future picks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Cheers Darth!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Midweek Draw selections: C Palace v Southampton - 10pts @ 3.4 Leeds v Sunderland - 10pts @ 3.45 Bradford v Carlisle - 10pts @ 3.45 Brentford v Swansea - 10pts @ 3.45 All prices betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 14, 2006 Author Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Like last time, only 1 out of 4 correct :( C Palace 0 Southampton 2 :@ -10pts Leeds 0 Sunderland 3 :@ -10pts Bradford 1 Carlisle 1 :ok +23pts Brentford 0 Swansea 2 :@ -10pts On the day -7 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 985 Total Staked: 80 W/L: 2/6 Profit/Loss: -15 Yield: -18.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 15, 2006 Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Don't get disheartened ..... in a way I prefer to see a new system start of badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Thanks Thunderfoot, still early days!! Just one draw for this weekend: Lincoln v MK Dons 10pts @ 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 17, 2006 Author Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Just missed out, Lincoln had 30mins against 10 men to get an equaliser!!! Lincoln 2 MK Dons 3 :@ -10pts On the day -10 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 975 Total Staked: 90 W/L: 2/7 Profit/Loss: -25 Yield: -27.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system This weekends Draw selections: Fulham v Chelsea 10pts @ 4.7 Man City v West Ham 10pts @ 3.45 Boro v Blackburn 10pts @ 3.4 Reading v Man U 10pts @ 4.3 Ipswich v Sunderland 10pts @ 3.35 Leicester v Colchester 10pts @ 3.6 Luton v West Brom 10pts @ 3.4 Oldham v Gillingham 10pts @ 3.45 Yeovil v Crewe 10pts @ 3.4 Tranmere v Notts F 10pts @ 3.3 Boston v Rochdale 10pts @ 3.4 Wrexham v Hereford 10pts @ 3.4 All prices betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Plenty of picks today, best of luck to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 24, 2006 Author Share Posted September 24, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Thanks David! Results for the weekend: Fulham 0 Chelsea 2 :@ -10pts Man City 2 West Ham 0 :@ -10pts Boro 0 Blackburn 1 :@ -10pts Reading 1 Man U 1 :ok +31pts Ipswich 3 Sunderland 1 :@ -10pts Leicester 0 Colchester 0 :ok +24pts Luton 2 West Brom 2 @ :ok +22pts Oldham 4 Gillingham 1 :@ -10pts Yeovil 2 Crewe 0 :@ -10pts Tranmere 0 Notts F 0 :ok +21pts Boston 0 Rochdale 3 :@ -10pts Wrexham 1 Hereford 0 :@ -10pts On the day +18 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 993 Total Staked: 210 W/L: 6/15 Profit/Loss: -7 Yield: -3.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system It's garbage in - garbage out. And who told you you can make good stats out of the data published in websites ? You have to make your own data which are probably not covered now in the websites. Football is like atomic collisions (one collision = a goal scored), dominated by chance but strongly influenced by the forces of nature. Find out the collision cross-section (the term used by the atomic physicists to describe the probability of particle interaction) and work it from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system I hate it when people come on to the web sites at 2:00am probably possed out of there mind talking a load of garbage If this is a computer based system or a gut feel system he as the right to publish it on this board without the abuse given. This is a friendlly forum and we need to give positive feedback to people who spend time giving tips whether we follow them or not. Keep it up rusty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system No abuse from me. Everything I say has a definite meaning. Want an example ? You want to back the exact score 2-2. If the draw is the likeliest outcome it can have a probability of 40% - anything higher suggests foul play to me. Out of all draws it is known that only 10% end up 2 each. So the fair price is 25.00 (24/1). But you won't find that price. Bookies will give you something like 15/1. So you need a lot more efficiency to predict 2-2 results and stay in the black. Such efficiency is not offered by present day methods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Cosmicway, I thought your analogy was apt and your example was quite sobering - a good reality check. Thanks and cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Hi cosmicway I see your point maybe rusty should be backing 0-0 and 1-1 scores and leave 2-2 3-3 out of the equation but thats his system He is using betfair prices and if the system is breaking even at odds off 2.87 and betfair prices are at least 3.2 on most matches in the premiership Id say garbage in money out Time will tell Cheers :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Fact of the matter is bookies search the "prediction tools" market too. Ever seen Paddy Power job requirements in the Post ; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Thanks Raylin for your support :ok Only 1 midweek draw selection: Swansea v Crewe 10pts @ 3.4 Price as always betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roby Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system i think if you have a system to select draws maybe it's better to bet on 1-1 correct score insteed of draws or bet on under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roby Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system alose i thins some leagues are better than others to bet on draw for example France, Greece,Poland,Germany are better than England ,Spain and Holland (Netherlands) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Roby, I will stick to the backing draws, but you could be right, backing 1-1 correct score or unders may well be a better idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system I am particularly interested in any thread highlighting potential match draws.A couple of questions for you rustyg : 1.What do you mean by " If the draw result in a match is ranked within 2.5% of the highest draw percentage for that league, it will be a selection." 2. Have you analysed your historic results to see how each month performs. I have a method of identifying potential match draws which has produced a profit every season from 2003/04.My approach relies entirely upon current season form . I do not get involved until around December when the lower league sides have played 10 home and away matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Hi Stephen, 1) I analysed every match, in terms of home draw away percentage probability, in each of the English divisions for the past 2 seasons. I then recorded the highest match percentage for the draw, for all matches in each league. That number becomes the max figure for that league. Any match this season, where the draw falls within 2.5% of the max figure for that league is a selection. 2) Sorry, as of yet don't have any monthly figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: Computer selected football draws system Midweek Result: Swansea 2 Crewe 1 :@ -10pts On the day -10 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 983 Total Staked: 220 W/L: 6/16 Profit/Loss: -17 Yield: -7.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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