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In-running Horse Trading Strategy

fetteredchinos
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fetteredchinos

fetteredchinos

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

bingo, got as far as 5 i think, then went on to lose.. so we now have Trades: 16 Wins: 8 Net Profit :0 Yield : 0% 17.10 - Diamond Katie @11.0
ah well, got as far as 9 i think, but then shot out to 1000.. to be continued tomorrow, but the stats are:- Trades: 17 Wins: 8 Net Profit :-1 Yield : -6% not as good as i had initially hoped, but after the dreadful start, its coming together nicely now.. :) FC
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stewartd14

stewartd14

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy I like your idea mate. But maybe a bit of twingeing in places may help. I am no system expert but I do bet in running. Would it not be better laying it off if it went under the odds you backed it at all. e.g Back at 10.0 and lay off at 8.0 for example. Might be a better idea. Smaller profits but probably more consistent and less risk. If it doesnt quite reach half the odds and it loses then you lose all together. If you lay at slightly worse odds then you will still make a guaranteed profit. Hope this helps but just a suggestion. If you dont want to change it just ignore me butting in. :ok :ok :ok

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fetteredchinos

fetteredchinos

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

I like your idea mate. But maybe a bit of twingeing in places may help. I am no system expert but I do bet in running. Would it not be better laying it off if it went under the odds you backed it at all. e.g Back at 10.0 and lay off at 8.0 for example. Might be a better idea. Smaller profits but probably more consistent and less risk. If it doesnt quite reach half the odds and it loses then you lose all together. If you lay at slightly worse odds then you will still make a guaranteed profit. Hope this helps but just a suggestion. If you dont want to change it just ignore me butting in. :ok :ok :ok
good points mate, and im about to take them on board. however, have noticed something of a problem with my excel coding, and it appears that my findings were not as they seemed. instead of 66% of horses trading to half their odds in-play, the figure is actually a lot closer to 53-55% or so, which is a lot closer to my initial live testing i did on here yesterday. and therefore not good for the system :sad however, this is for all races, and as you say, it can be tweaked etc in terms of courses/distances. unfortunately i dont have MS Access, so i am limited in the amount of data i can analyse, but at least the basic idea is sound - ie in-play, the greed of people to "buy money" on certain horses that initially run well makes the horse trade a lot lower than it should do. i am also going to look at other factors/variable, such as a smaller threshold for it to trade under... i'll report back here in a bit. fc
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fetteredchinos

fetteredchinos

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

ah well, got as far as 9 i think, but then shot out to 1000.. to be continued tomorrow, but the stats are:- Trades: 17 Wins: 8 Net Profit :-1 Yield : -6% not as good as i had initially hoped, but after the dreadful start, its coming together nicely now.. :) FC
Boo :( Trades: 18 Wins: 8 Net Profit :-2 Yield : -11% 14.05 Not For Me @ 10.5
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fetteredchinos

fetteredchinos

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

Have you seen the bet angel software. The basic is free and should help with your system mate.
yes i have, but i fail to see how having a bot will cause the odds to drop to required levels?? :unsure anyway, i think this one is probably dead for good, but im currently looking into laying the entire field at about 1.5 to 1.8 . initial testing accross 100 races or so looks positive, but we shall see.. fc
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maria

maria

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

im currently looking into laying the entire field at about 1.5 to 1.8 . initial testing accross 100 races or so looks positive' date=' but we shall see..[/quote'] That's sort of similar to an idea that some professional layers use, a sort of bet sometimes known as a "Wilton" or an "Axminster" (because it's sometimes described as "carpet laying"). I have certainly never seen quite such a low figure mentioned as your 1.5 to 1.8 range, though. And I understand that in order to maximise profits it's essential to be selective with race-types. But good luck with your interesting and promising idea, FC ... :)
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thunderfoot

thunderfoot

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

Would it not be better laying it off if it went under the odds you backed it at all. e.g Back at 10.0 and lay off at 8.0 for example. Might be a better idea. Smaller profits but probably more consistent and less risk.
Personally, I think this to be a better strategy and is the way all 'traders' operate, particularly Adam Todd (http://www.racingtraders.com/) .... lots of small 'nibbles' equals big profits.
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pinhofap

pinhofap

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

yes i have, but i fail to see how having a bot will cause the odds to drop to required levels?? :unsure anyway, i think this one is probably dead for good, but im currently looking into laying the entire field at about 1.5 to 1.8 . initial testing accross 100 races or so looks positive, but we shall see.. fc
I would advise you to be selective on choosing the races. Go for races under 7f, with weak favourites, over 2/1. On Irish racing the liquidity is so low that I've seen 3 horses available to back at 1.5 ate the same time. If you want to get greedy, go for 1.55, I think some people put back bets of 1.5 to catch "something" in-play, so you will catch all of those. I think the idea may also work on balanced races if you lay 3 or more horses at 3.0, but you have to look at the odds, this won't work on races where you have a fancied favourite. I've done this with the 1.55 strategy in 5f and 6f races and I had some good results. I now have limited access to in-play (work, work, work!!) so I don't use anymore.
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maria

maria

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy

I would advise you to be selective on choosing the races. Go for races under 7f, with weak favourites, over 2/1.
That's for sure. Shorter races are definitely better, especially sprint handicaps. "Wide open" races of various kinds are better. The longer the favourite, the better. It may well be that some very poor quality races are better, too. (In theory, banded races ought to qualify for this style of betting, but I don't know how good the liquidity is.) ;)
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  • 2 weeks later...
pinhofap

pinhofap

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Another curious thing appears to be that in races where the favourite has odds of at least 5/2, the first horse to reach 3.0 decimal in-play doesn't quite win 1/3 of the times. Might be worth taking a look, you could lay the field at 3.0 as soon as the race starts and cancel all the remaining bets when the first one is matched. I suppose people get greedy in-play when they see a horse in the front and take below average prices, but I don't have exact strike rate for something like this, it's just something that appears to happen...

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  • 11 months later...
tonyturf1

tonyturf1

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Hi I saw this thread only today,searching for in-running lay-systems on horse-racing. I wonder if somebody used this for a long time and what are the results pl? I made a nice profit using this system (12 winners and only 3 losers at 2/1). One afternoon means nothing so i wonder if somebody tried this for a long period. Many thanks in advance

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  • 1 month later...
Ferru

Ferru

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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Hi. Did Excel or Access search through the races to arrive the 305 figure, or did you need to look at each race yourself? Is there a quick and easy way of summarising spreadsheets, so you could tell, for example, how many races in the sample had more than one horse trading at 2.0 in running? Thanks in advance. Regards Jeff

Hi guys, i think this will be the first system i have posted up on here, so go easy please. anyway, i have just done a bit of number crunching in excel of the horse data from http://data.betfair.com owing to the size of the files, i have only tested the period from 28/8 to 3/9, and for UK/Irish racing only.. and anyway, as you are probably aware, the majority of the trading guides written on trading the nags before the off advise you to close your position before the off, so that you have no position in running as this is too unpredictable.. not so i say, at least based on this albeit small sample. of 456 horses that last traded at 3.0 or higher right before the off in this period, a rather impressive 305 traded at under half those odds. laying twice the stake at this halved price in running should generate approximately + 305 pts on all green screens, and -151 pts on those that didnt trade lower and therefore lost the backing stake for a toal of +154 and a yield of 33%!! had anyone else tried anything similar in practice? it does look pretty promising, and requires no knowledge of form etc.. ps, the higher the SP, the more likely it is to trade at half the odds - ie for those that start at over 100 on the exchanges, 89% at some point in the race trade at half those odds. might require fruther investigation FC
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