ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings

[Djordje]

This system is another (I hope improved) version of my previous systems based on HDA percentage estimations. In this version I will use ratings (my own ratings) to select possible bets. This ratings are theoretically values between -1 and 1, but in practice that will hardly happen that team have those extreme values. Possible bets will be divided in two groups - one group will be some kind of normal or expected bets (GroupA), and another group will be group of statistically dangerous bets (GroupB), where some of the bets will look pretty obvious, but teams involved might be in long losing or winning streak, whatever. After possible bets are selected, I'll apply ValueEstimations to see if prices on selected outcomes are worth betting, and than determine stakes. I will test this system on English leagues - from Championship to Nationwide Conference; bets in usual 1-10 stakes. Each week I will list all candidates for bets, early in the week, and later when odds are available, final bets will be shown.

[Djordje]

Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Crystal Palace(0.250) vs Burnley(0.200) - draw Stoke(0.100) vs Plymouth(0.150) - draw Wolverhampton(0.050) vs Luton(0.100) - draw Bradford(0.500) vs Rotherham(-0.100) - home win Leyton Orient(-0.050) vs Swansea(-0.050) - draw Macclesfield(-0.600) vs Wycombe(0.200) - away win Torquay(0.100) vs Chester(0.050) - draw Walsall(0.550) vs Darlington(0.000) - home win York(0.533) vs Burton(-0.067) - home win Grays(0.600) vs Woking(-0.333) - home win GroupB Yeovil(-0.100) vs Port Vale(0.700) - away win Swindon(0.750) vs Stockport(-0.450) - home win Kidderminster(-0.067) vs Weymouth(0.733) - away win Oxford(0.800) vs Nortwich(-0.200) - home win Tamworth(-0.933) vs Exeter(0.533) - away win *number in brackets are ratings