smyther Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 Ok here it goes my first betting system hopefully so good it will be my last.. Bascially i'll be picking draws from a number of leagues and backing them in singles.. My picks are determined by a number of factors.. Takes a bit of work to work them out using pen and pencil so not much back testing done at the moment.. No bank really except by the 5th round if i dont have enough money in the bank to cover the picks im out to revaluate the situ.. Will also keep a record of how doubles and trebles would go but at the moment will have no money on them.. Im covering the 3 lower english leagues at the mo german main league 2 frence leagues and hope to add the spainish and italy 1+2.. But it can be very time consuming so we'll have to see.. Only back testing i've done for this season is in Eng champ have had 5/7 and french 2 had 3/5 so far.. but only one way to really test so here it is.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Sat Aug 26 Eng Lg1 12.30 Huddersfield V Nott Forest 5 @ 3.20 3.00 Bradford V Rotterham 5 @ 3.25 Eng Lg 2 3.00 Bury V Grimbsy 5 @ 3.25 France Lg 1 8.00 St Ettine V Lens 5 @ 2.87 Germany Lg 1 2.30 Stuggart V Dortmund 5 @ 3.25 Staked 25 Should be spainish picks to follow in week if any quailify Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Spain Lg 1 Aug 27 8.00 D Coruna V Zaragoza 5 @ 3.25 OK thats it for the weekend nice and early i no.. :hope heres hoping.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Sat Aug 26 Eng Lg1 12.30 Huddersfield V Nott Forest 5 @ 3.20 :lol (1-1) 3.00 Bradford V Rotterham 5 @ 3.25 :lol (1-1) Eng Lg 2 3.00 Bury V Grimbsy 5 @ 3.25 (3-0) France Lg 1 8.00 St Ettine V Lens 5 @ 2.87 :hope Germany Lg 1 2.30 Stuggart V Dortmund 5 @ 3.25 (1-3) Staked 25 Should be spainish picks to follow in week if any quailify So 2 from 4 at the moment and 2 to play Returned 32.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 26, 2006 Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw So You'll make a profit if your strike rate is above 33% predicting draws, 'cause the odds are usually around 2/1? Good luck! Hope this works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw yea thats right its good to only need a small percentage of wins to profit:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw With Deportiva beating Zaragoza and st etinne winning 2-0 looks like its 2/6 for the system which still showed a little profit but didnt set the world alight... hopefully it can build from here.. Singles 6 Bets 2 winners Bet 30 Returned 32.25 P/L +2.25 Doubles Paper Trial 15 bets 1 winner Bet 15 Returned 10.4 P/L -4.6 Trebles Paper Trial 10 Bets 0 winner Bet 10 Returned 0 P/L -10 Will have midweek picks if any by monday good luck all.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Well no picks for the system last weekend had me a bit worried maybe i wasnt getting enough picks so i changed the parameters to get more picks.. However this weekend with more football brought a nice number of picks from he oringional so i'll write down the extra draw picks from the new system but there will be no bet by me also i'll document games which should be good for lays just for my own record ok here we go.. ENG LG1 Tanmere v Bristol 5 @ 3.20 Eng LG2 Shrewsbury V Linclon 5 @ 3.20 Italy A Messina V Udinese 5 @ 3.00 Spain A Getafe V Santander 5 @ 3.30 Ok still have Italy Spain and French 2nd leagues to look at.. Extras New system Psg V Marseille 2.87 Mallorca V Coruna 3.10 And Draws to lay Coventry V Norwhich 3.25 Ipswhich V Southampon 3.25 Doncaster V Gillingham 3.30 Ok so a total of 20 euro bet so far but more should follow good luck.. Odds taken from bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok just a quick one cause we are near the time french lg2.. Brest V Montpeillier 2.75 Reims V Ameins 2.90 EXTRA Istres V Guinmamp 2.75 Lays Numancia V Elche 2.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok just a quick one cause we are near the time french lg2.. Brest V Montpeillier 2.75 :lol Reims V Ameins 2.90 :@ EXTRA Istres V Guinmamp 2.75 :@ Lays Numancia V Elche 2.80 ok for the system it was 1/2 with 10 bet and 13.75 returned.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 9, 2006 Author Share Posted September 9, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Well no picks for the system last weekend had me a bit worried maybe i wasnt getting enough picks so i changed the parameters to get more picks.. However this weekend with more football brought a nice number of picks from he oringional so i'll write down the extra draw picks from the new system but there will be no bet by me also i'll document games which should be good for lays just for my own record ok here we go.. ENG LG1 Tanmere v Bristol 5 @ 3.20 :@ (1-0) 84" Eng LG2 Shrewsbury V Linclon 5 @ 3.20 :@ (0-1) 28" Italy A Messina V Udinese 5 @ 3.00 :hope Spain A Getafe V Santander 5 @ 3.30 :hope Ok still have Italy Spain and French 2nd leagues to look at.. Extras New system Psg V Marseille 2.87 :hope Mallorca V Coruna 3.10 :hope And Draws to lay Coventry V Norwhich 3.25 :clap Ipswhich V Southampon 3.25 :clap Doncaster V Gillingham 3.30 :clap Ok so a total of 20 euro bet so far but more should follow good luck.. Odds taken from bet365 well bad day today very bad 2 lost from 2.. so far this weekend we are at - 6.25.. 1 draw tomoro puts back in profit so am hopefull.. all the lays came in if i;ll keep track of ths using the 365 prices even though it isnt accurate it will give me a rough estimate.. other things to note 7/11 games finishing in unders so i'll keep an eye on this.. and only 2/11 have won by more than a goal but i don't no any bookie that does jus winning margain for whatever team.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Italy A Messina V Udinese 5 @ 3.00 (1-0):@ another single goal victory that has ended unders meaning a definet loss for this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Spain A Getafe V Santander 5 @ 3.30 (1-0) :@ Extras New system Psg V Marseille 2.87 Mallorca V Coruna 3.10 (0-0) :clap Odds taken from bet365 Well well another 1-0 win this is something else really is i hope this is a bad weekend otherwise i'm goin to have to cover my bets by betting on the scoreline.. 5/6 games where 1-0 6/6 went unders 1 draw with the extras 6/8 1-0 8/8 went unders 2draws (1 to play) 4 games where layed on paper and as this thread seems good at this there were no draws.. not sure what to think of all this.. we'll see what next weekbrings i suppose.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Singles 12 Bets 3 winners Bet 60 Returned 46 P/L -14 Doubles 30 Bets 1 winner Bet 30 Returned 10.4 P/L -19.6 Trebles 20 bets 0 winners Bet 20 Returned 0 P/L -20 Lays (rough calculation using 365 odds not very accurate) 4 Bets 4 winners Bet 12.6 Returned 16.6 P/L +4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok jus ran through the midweek games and have two picks, Leicster V Hull @ 3.50 Stockport V Shrewsbury @ 3.25 hopefully im goin through a bad patch and its all about to change cause i feel ive been a bit unlucky with the last set if results.. Extras Blackpool V Chesterfield 3.25 Rotterham V Tranmere 3.25 Scunthorpe V Port Vale 3.25 Barnet V Boston 3.20 well thats it untill the games and if they end in 1-0s or unders im changing the name of the thread cause i will have found gold looking for silver or would it be found silver looking for gold hmm.. anyways here is a dancing banana to bring me luck:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok jus ran through the midweek games and have two picks, Leicster V Hull @ 3.50 :@ (0-1) again Stockport V Shrewsbury @ 3.25 (0-3):wall hopefully im goin through a bad patch and its all about to change cause i feel ive been a bit unlucky with the last set if results.. Extras Blackpool V Chesterfield 3.25 (1-0):@ Rotterham V Tranmere 3.25 (2-1):@ Scunthorpe V Port Vale 3.25 (3-0):cry :cry Barnet V Boston 3.20 (3-3):) well thats it untill the games and if they end in 1-0s or unders im changing the name of the thread cause i will have found gold looking for silver or would it be found silver looking for gold hmm.. anyways here is a dancing banana to bring me luck:nana well rapidly goin down the toilet 2 picks 2 lose another 1-0 another unders.. i'm at a loss.. i'll keep goin at least i'll have a record.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok there were 3 picks for tonight but one is at half time so i cant bet on it.. albinoffe and mondea.. So the 2 picks are Chateraux V Geuegon Missed aswell Wolfsburg V Hanover 3.25 Ok jus took mondea game in runnin @ 2.00 prob wont draw now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ok there were 3 picks for tonight but one is at half time so i cant bet on it.. albinoffe and mondea.. So the 2 picks are Chateraux V Geuegon Missed aswell Wolfsburg V Hanover 3.25 Ok jus took mondea game in runnin @ 2.00 prob wont draw now ok as i missed one game and there was no in running we had 10 staked tonight and 10 returned.. the mondea game was 0-0.. wolsburg lost 2-1 so thats where we lost.. ok if i get time i'll get tomoros picks up u may detect im getting lazy for this.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ah shoot had a spiel wrote out and pressed back.. ok 3 picks for tomoro in england hopefully i'll be home in time to do the other leagues that evening.. Derby V Preston 3.25 Blackpool V Oldham 3.20 Stockport V Wrexham 3.25 Tomoro will be a good day yes please.. :notworthy :drums :cow :drums :nana :cheers :cheers :unsure :puke :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Ah shoot had a spiel wrote out and pressed back.. ok 3 picks for tomoro in england hopefully i'll be home in time to do the other leagues that evening.. Derby V Preston 3.25 1-1 :clap Blackpool V Oldham 3.20 2-2 :clap Stockport V Wrexham 3.25 5-2 :@ Tomoro will be a good day yes please.. :notworthy :drums :cow :drums :nana :cheers :cheers :unsure :puke :spank well finally i can report some good news 2 out of 3 is nice happy with that will be back with this evenings picks if any.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Hey jus looked and 2 bets for this evening Lorca V Ciudad Murcia 2.90 Troyes V Nice 2.80 :cow :cow :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: A Dreary Draw Does anyone know the average price on draws at ht in a game.. 8/19 have been like this and was wondering if it would profit.. think it'd be around 2.00.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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