muppet77 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Interesting stats Mr Muppet. Out of interest - have you tried omitting August to mid September results when running your back-tests? Not sure whether early season irregularites affect top teams but would be interesting to see whether it improves your profit margins or not? here you go - i omitted the first 5 games of each season to see if it improved. 4/6 seasons did improve, and overall it improved by a yield of +4.1% from 13.8% to +17.9%. doubles profit yield 'old' yield improved ? 0001 -2.13 -7.3% -15.6% yes 0102 14.25 49.1% 35.9% yes 0203 4.54 15.7% 3.1% yes 0304 -0.07 -0.2% 6.6% no 0405 10.81 37.3% 36.5% yes 0506 3.66 12.6% 16.2% no ALL 31.08 17.9% 13.8% yes ******************edit see thread 41*************** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Thanks for answering; is difficult from those results to decide on best plan of action: 1) Overall an increase of yield by 4.1% which looks good, however, 2) A reduction in yield for the last three most recent years (-10%) So is it best to go with the long term stats or the more recent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool One way, I suppose, to answer this question would be to look at singles (not doubles) and see if top teams perform any better or worse in their first 5 games of the season to any other times in the season) - this is something I have been meaning to look at, the differences in performance over the course of the season (presumably weather does have an influence - but perhaps not to top teams (when at home - as you'd expect their "expensive" stadiums to not get as affected by the weather?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Nice treble last weekend. I can see this making money providing Liverpool sort themselves out. They'll probably let you down more than any other side I reckon. Hope not but thats my gut feeling here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Nice treble last weekend. I can see this making money providing Liverpool sort themselves out. They'll probably let you down more than any other side I reckon. Hope not but thats my gut feeling here. that's why i am running the double bet of the 'top2' teams along side it. the double and treble, in the long term, performed pretty similarly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool There may be teams in other leagues more consistent than Liverpool. Last season if you'd included Reading with the top 3 you would have made good profit. This season i'm thinking Notts Forest or Swindon could be the teams to use alongside Chelsea and Man Utd. Just an idea you could paper trial and you'll get better odds for one of those teams than the usual 1-4 type odds you get for Chelsea. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool any idea if i can get hold of these odds to modify the backtesting? Try H2Hstats. They have the H/A/D odds, but only going back to season 03/04. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','MNU')'>Manchester Utd vs :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','TOT')'>Tottenham 1.44 :form_h2h_team('EVE','LIV','EVE')'>Everton vs :form_h2h_team('EVE','LIV','LIV')'>Liverpool 2.10 :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHE')'>Chelsea vs :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHA')'>Charlton 1.20 =>3.64 double with bet365 :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','MNU')'>Manchester Utd vs :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','TOT')'>Tottenham 1.50 :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHE')'>Chelsea vs :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHA')'>Charlton 1.20 =>1.79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','MNU')'>Manchester Utd vs :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','TOT')'>Tottenham 1.44 :) :form_h2h_team('EVE','LIV','EVE')'>Everton vs :form_h2h_team('EVE','LIV','LIV')'>Liverpool 2.10 :eyes :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHE')'>Chelsea vs :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHA')'>Charlton 1.20 :) =>3.64:eyes double with bet365 :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','MNU')'>Manchester Utd vs :form_h2h_team('MNU','TOT','TOT')'>Tottenham 1.50 ;) :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHE')'>Chelsea vs :form_h2h_team('CHE','CHA','CHA')'>Charlton 1.20 ;) =>1.79 :nana double wins 3 bets 4 strike 75% profit +1.55 yield +39% treble wins 1 bets 3 strike 33% profit +0.17 yield +5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfp Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Hi there people, i am new to the forum and i was just reading this thread. I had a similar idea sometime ago myself. I have a certain suggestion to make. Since it is pretty hard to find 3 consistent teams in a certain league during a year and you risk of picking the wrong teams, why don't you consider using teams from different leagues, teams that you know for sure they will be consistent ie Chelsea, Man Utd, Barcelona, Bayern Munich etc? Just an idea.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool the following figures below are a more accurate backtest, using the best odds on the bookies favourite and second favourite to win the league: 0001 0102 0203 0304 0405 0506 MU AR MU AR MU AR AR MU CH AR CH MU fav -0.92 2.12 3.37 6.58 11.58 5.21 2nd fav -5.09 5.72 -0.12 0.79 2.55 2.96 both -6.01 7.84 3.25 7.37 14.13 8.17 fav -2.6% 5.9% 9.4% 18.3% 32.2% 14.5% 2nd fav -14.1% 15.9% -0.3% 2.2% 7.1% 8.2% both -8.3% 10.9% 4.5% 10.2% 19.6% 11.3% ALL SEASONS PROFIT BETS YIELD fav 27.94 216 12.9% 2nd fav 6.81 216 3.2% BOTH 34.75 432 8.0% i don't really have an interest in other leagues, and besides i don't have a record of who the favs were - i found it difficult enough to find the epl favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool the data below shows SINGLE bets on the fav, the 2nd fav and then SINGLES on both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool double with bet365 Chelsea vs Liverpool 1.83 Manchester Utd vs Arsenal 1.90 => 3.50 no treble, due to liverpool playing chelsea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2006 Author Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Hi there people' date=' i am new to the forum and i was just reading this thread. I had a similar idea sometime ago myself. I have a certain suggestion to make. Since it is pretty hard to find 3 consistent teams in a certain league during a year and you risk of picking the wrong teams, why don't you consider using teams from different leagues, teams that you know for sure they will be consistent ie Chelsea, Man Utd, Barcelona, Bayern Munich etc? Just an idea.:)[/quote'] using doubles of: intermilanbarcelonareal madridbayern munichwerder bremenchelseaman united this season: profit +6.91 yield +69.1% wins 7 stake 10 strike 70% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2006 Author Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool does anybody know the bookies pre season favourites for SPAIN ITALY GERMANY from the seasons 0001 0102 0203 0304 0405 0506 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfp Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Well for Germany it must always have been Bayern Munich i believe, i have no data though to tell you for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool double with bet365 :form_h2h_team('CHE','LIV','CHE')'>Chelsea vs :form_h2h_team('CHE','LIV','LIV')'>Liverpool 1.83 ;) :form_h2h_team('MNU','ARS','MNU')'>Manchester Utd vs :form_h2h_team('MNU','ARS','ARS')'>Arsenal 1.90 :eyes => 3.50:eyes double wins 3 bets 5 strike 60% profit +0.55 yield +11% treble wins 1 bets 3 strike 33% profit +0.17 yield +5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes Liverpool v Tottenham 1.57 Fulham v Chelsea 1.44 Reading v Man Utd 1.53 => 3.48 double with ladbrokes Fulham v Chelsea 1.40 Reading v Man Utd 1.50 => 2.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Hi muppet - you can get 3.69 on the treble at stan james. Every little helps..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool great. cheers mate. i am only using the accounts that i have opened already. good spot though. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 26, 2006 Author Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes Liverpool v Tottenham 1.57 ;) Fulham v Chelsea 1.44 ;) Reading v Man Utd 1.53 :eyes => 3.48 :eyes double with ladbrokes Fulham v Chelsea 1.40 ;) Reading v Man Utd 1.50 :eyes => 2.21 :eyes double wins 3 bets 6 strike 50% profit -0.45 yield -8% treble wins 1 bets 4 strike 25% profit -0.83 yield -21% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 29, 2006 Author Share Posted September 29, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes Liverpool 2.00 Chelsea 1.33 Man Utd 1.33 => 3.54 double with ladbrokes Chelsea 1.33 Man Utd 1.33 => 1.77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes Liverpool 2.00 :eyes Chelsea 1.33 :eyes Man Utd 1.33:) => 3.54:eyes double with ladbrokes Chelsea 1.33:eyes Man Utd 1.33:) => 1.77:eyes double wins 3 bets 7 strike 43% profit -1.45 yield -21% treble wins 1 bets 5 strike 20% profit -1.83 yield -37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Has the system been tried purely using home games and missing out any potential banana skins by not using games between 2 of the big 3 teams? I'm guessing odds would not be as good but surely strike rate would be higher. Trying to build a bank in a slow and methodical way by betting conservatively with a small increment as the bank gets bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool i have omitted games involving top 3. i have tested h+a not just homes. may drop it if it fails again next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool i have omitted games involving top 3. i have tested h+a not just homes. may drop it if it fails again next week. While not as many games to bet on, certainly within the EPL, there must be a greater winning margin picking the top teams only at home surrely??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool surely, yes, but then the odds on offer reflect this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool If your stats include the aways I'd continue to bet the aways. Also I wouldn't worry even though Liverpool is letting you down (mostly) - there has obviously been bad periods in all your tested seasons to and that will only mean higher odds offered when the team starts acting as a favourite again. Good luck with this -very interesting. Would be cool checking if even bigger multiples, with like 4,5 or 6 of Europes top teams, could make a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool treble with ladbrokes Liverpool 1.50 Chelsea 1.44 Man Utd 1.44 => 3.12 double with bet365 Chelsea 1.40 Man Utd 1.53 => 2.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Good luck with this -very interesting. Would be cool checking if even bigger multiples, with like 4,5 or 6 of Europes top teams, could make a profit. on a four fold with chelseainterbarcelonabayern munich it has won one week out of 5 so far. profit +3.24 staked 5 yield 65% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.