muppet77 Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 i will be using kelly stakes, using real money for this system. i will start with a bank of 100 units or pounds. i will focus on the english premiership using the bookmakers lads, willhills, paddyp, bwin, betfair, bet365 and skybet. the system is under wraps but basically uses past performances to predict future outcomes, to be blunt! i aim for a 5%+ yield by the end of may 2007. when the bank is bust - it's game over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 17, 2006 Author Share Posted August 17, 2006 Re: muppet system habetoddsstakebookieSheff UtdLiverpoolA1.55 11.07 bwinEvertonWatfordH1.67 11.86 b365West HamCharltonH2.10 8.28 bwinMan UtdFulhamD5.50 0.47 b365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 Re: muppet system Good luck muppet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 Re: muppet system Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 Re: muppet system .... will be following with interest young fella, hope that Lady Luck is with you.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 Re: muppet system cheers everyone. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Re: muppet system Hi Muppet - I tried to send you a pm but your inbox is full :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 Re: muppet system try again mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Re: muppet system Best of luck will watch with interest!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 20, 2006 Author Share Posted August 20, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 20, 2006 Share Posted August 20, 2006 Re: muppet system Nice first results, shame Liverpool spoilt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2006 Author Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: muppet system bet odds stake bookie Tottenham Sheff Utd H 1.50 2.11 b365 Watford West Ham A 2.60 21.43 paddyp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 21, 2006 Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: muppet system Only staking 2.11pts at odds of 1.5 on Spurs, is this a misprint Muppet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: muppet system no mate - stake depends on difference between my odds and the bookies odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: muppet system Sorry!:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: muppet system good old west ham eh! :spank bet odds stake bookie Tottenham Sheff Utd H 1.50 2.11 b365 :tongue2 +1.06 Watford West Ham A 2.60 21.43 paddyp :( -21.43 bets 6 wins 3 strike 50% staked 55.22 profit -14.86 bank 85.14 yield -26.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie Blackburn Everton H 2.38 24.03 b365 Man City Portsmouth H 2.25 12.62 lads Charlton Man Utd A 1.57 9.67 lads :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: muppet system Think you shouldve stated with a bigger bank with staking so high but good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie result profit Blackburn Everton H 2.38 24.03 b365 :( -24.03 Man City Portsmouth H 2.25 12.62 lads :( -12.62 Charlton Man Utd A 1.57 9.67 lads :) 5.51 bets 9 wins 4 strike 44% staked 101.53 profit -46 bank 54 yield -45% this is a living nightmare :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system Early days for the season & the system Muppet - Keep it going I'm sure it will improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system i will be using kelly stakes, using real money for this system. Just out of interest how are you calculating kelly stakes on simultaneous events? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system It's your system and none of my business, but I can't help thinking you've got the staking plan all wrong. Your first issue is the strike rate, but that will improve as league form settles down. But surely you shouldn't be risking 10 times more money on a 8/5 selection than you do on a 1/2 bet. Simple dutching each day would reduce your losses from £46 to £14.75. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system no worries people - i'm glad for some advice. i have estimated odds for each game, and use the kelly formula to generate a stake - which depends on my odds, and the bookie odds. i take a day at a time with the bank, so day 1 bank was 100 - then all stakes were calculated on that day. the next game was on day 2, where the bank was updated, and stakes calculated. i must admit i usually go for 1 unit level stakes, but i thought i'd try kelly. on level stakes i would have : 0.67 1.1 -1 -1 0.5 -1 0.57 -1 -1 profit = -2.16 yield = -24% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: muppet system Hi Muppet, calculating correct kelly stakes on games that kick off at the same time isn't a trivial problem. I think you are probably overstaking. Dino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie Liverpool West Ham H 1.44 8.68 b365 Fulham Sheff Utd H 1.91 2.80 b365 Watford Man Utd A 1.40 10.15 b365 Middlesboro Portsmouth H 2.10 5.21 lads some more massive bets for the weekend and monday. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie result profit Liverpool West Ham H 1.44 8.68 b365 :) 3.82 Fulham Sheff Utd H 1.91 2.80 b365 :) 2.55 Watford Man Utd A 1.40 10.15 b365 :) 4.06 Middlesboro Portsmouth H 2.10 5.21 lads :( -5.21 bets 13 wins 7 strike 54% staked 128.37 profit -40.78 bank 59.22 yield -40% level stakes staked 13 profit -1.41 yield -10.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie Arsenal Middlesboro H 1.36 3.20 lads Bolton Watford H 1.66 23.70 b365 Chelsea Charlton H 1.20 1.22 b365 Everton Liverpool A 2.10 9.09 lads Sheff Utd Blackburn A 2.62 6.18 b365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: muppet system h a bet odds stake bookie result profit Arsenal Middlesboro H 1.36 3.20 lads :( -3.20 Bolton Watford H 1.66 23.70 b365 :) 15.64 Chelsea Charlton H 1.20 1.22 b365 :) 0.24 Everton Liverpool A 2.10 9.09 lads :( -9.09 Sheff Utd Blackburn A 2.62 6.18 b365 :( -6.18 kelly stakes bets 18 wins 9 strike 50% staked 171.75 profit -43.37 bank 56.63 yield -25% level stakes staked 18 profit -3.55 yield -20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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