Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... the curtain comes down on another weekend and with it comes another winner with our solitary selection A C Milan came home to roost with a handsome win.The latest position is now:-

Total Staked		770.00	Avg Odds	Avg Stake
Total Returned		823.29	1.71	10.00
Yield		1.069	6.92%
Winners		50
Losers		27
Strike Rate		64.94%
Current Bank		153.29
Profit / Loss		53.29

The sequence now sees six winners on the trot, so we have to happy with that.:cheers

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Eddie, some fascinating stats you have produced there! Merlin kindly sent me the sheets as I intended to see if I could find any angles to cover. Unfortunately however I found that you cant see past predictions once the results have been entered. I assume you are going through a week at a time and noting the predictions in a separate sheet in order to produce this analysis? I haven't the time to go through from the start of the season so kind of hit a stumbling block. The ideas I had initially were around Clean Sheet markets and also the Predicted Table. I was also intruiged by the idea of correct score doubles or trebles per league. When entering the results I was often finding that you would get at least 2, sometimes 3 or more correct scores per gameweek per league. To expand on the Predict Table idea a bit, please correct me if im wrong; The predict table is calculated from all the predictions of the remaining games. From looking at the table it shows us how it expects teams to improve or get worse than their current league position. If a team is expected to improve on their current low league position by a significant amount, it would be an indication that their form is better than it looks. The hope is that their league position (being low) would make the prices on offer on those teams much bigger than if they were higher up the league. Vice-versa for teams who are at the top and are predicted to fall down the league. So basically I would be interested in seeing the results of teams expected to move up a certain amount of positions (say 5) by the end of the year and teams expected to move down by a certain number of positions (5). You would obviously not be able to do this too well in the first 2 months of the season or near then end when the predict table is similar to the actual league. Rambling on a bit, but your thoughts?

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... Not many selections again for the 3-0 system for Boxing Day, with Bundesliga, Primera and Serie A all at a festive halt, so its only two selections for the 26th:- Chelsea (h) 1.18 Crystal P (h) 1.79 I will be away from Boxing Day until Tuesday next week so will have to catch up with selections and prices later. The good thing is that they are always proofed via MW Sheets, so no false results are ever entered.Its a true record.:ok

[clarky101]

[clarky101]

[clarky101]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. After no picks for the +2's on boxing day, we now have 3 Reading @ 1.90 Kettering @ 1.82 Aston Villa @ 2.14 (Tuesday)

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I hope I have this right but in Merlin's absence here are what I think are the 3-0 selections (I believe its teams that are forecast to win by 3 or more?): Aston Villa (a) Man Utd (h) Leicester (h) MK Dons (h) Crawley Town (h) Hope you dont mind me posting these Merlin

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... yes indeed you have the selections spot on for 3-0 system young fella.But let us get updated before trundling on. Both our selections won Chelsea and Crystal Palace to make the latest position now:-

Total Staked		790.00	Avg Odds	Avg Stake
Total Returned		852.50	1.71	10.00
Yield		1.079	7.91%
Winners		52
Losers		27
Strike Rate		65.82%
Current Bank		162.50
Profit / Loss		62.50

..... and with that done, we can now look at the batch you so kindly penned for me above:- Manchester U 1.26 won 1-0 Aston Villa (a) 2.02 won 1-0 Leicester C 1.42 won 2-1 M K Dons 1.75 won 2-0 Crawley Town 1.69 won 1-0 So it's a FULL HOUSE once again with all the five winning, and now the latest position is:-

Total Staked		840.00	Avg Odds	Avg Stake
Total Returned		932.33	1.70	10.00
Yield		1.110	10.99%
Winners		57
Losers		27
Strike Rate		67.86%
Current Bank		192.33
Profit / Loss		92.33

The figures are looking very respectable once again and our latest run brings the consecutive total to 13 straight winners.Got to be happy and contented with that.:ok

[barrhead73]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good to see this system back at the 10-11% returns of previous years Merlin.

[clarky101]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

Reading @ 1.90 :wall Kettering @ 1.82 ( Post ) Aston Villa @ 2.14 :clap(Tuesday)

Nice going Merlin :clap Anyhows, Tables tomorrow with a weekend pick for the Norms..

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, do you know how often you get a full house when there are 4 or more selections. This one paid around 8/1 - 9/1, with around 40 gameweeks (max) a year and many of those with less than 4 selections, you wouldnt need many FH's to break even.

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ...... yes I know exactly from my spreadsheet:- There have been two full houses up to now 1 at 5 correct, and the other at 4 correct.There have been five correct from 6, 4 times, and 4 from 5 once,and 3 from 4 once so I guess that should be quite favourable.:ok

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... and one selection for the 3-0 system for Thursday night:- Oxford Utd 1.64 Hoping for a continued good run.:ok

[clarky101]

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

...... yes I know exactly from my spreadsheet:- There have been two full houses up to now 1 at 5 correct, and the other at 4 correct.There have been five correct from 6, 4 times, and 4 from 5 once,and 3 from 4 once so I guess that should be quite favourable.:ok

How many batches have failed? Or have you covered all there? If so accas and 4 from 5, 3 from 4 and so on would pay well. Any stats for previous years by any chance? Thanks in advance. Good luck with Thursdays selection!

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I dont suppose anyone has a complete spreadsheet of all the predictions churned out by the Wray Sheets? I would like to do some further research but I haven't the time right now to go back through and record them from the start of the season (or the blank spreadsheets). Thanks.

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... looks like fast eddie has a complete record MP, judging by his tables further back.Anyway I would just like to wish everyone both on PL and also related to this thread, A Very Happy and Prosperous New Year and may 2009 bring you all your heart's desires.Cheers fellas.:cheers

[Fast Eddie]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

I dont suppose anyone has a complete spreadsheet of all the predictions churned out by the Wray Sheets? I would like to do some further research but I haven't the time right now to go back through and record them from the start of the season (or the blank spreadsheets). Thanks.

send me a pm with your email addy and I'll try and sort something out (you click on my name top left of this post and select pm(private message)),I've got my brother coming over for the day though so it might have to be tomorrow, I only have this seasons predictions and results for the 5 english leagues. I'm looking to get the MW blank sheets for the previous seasons to back test any ideas but I can't find any online so I'll have to email MW himself. Entering up the results and keeping record of all predictions could be a mammoth job though so I'll have to see if I've got time. I think that drawing any conclusions from one season's data is a recipe for trouble though so I am keen to look back over the last few seasons. Ed

[mpendle]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Eddie, not sure I have made enough posts to use the PM function. You make some valid points about not testing over just 1 year, but hopefully we can find some trends. For example Merlin's technique has already settled down to its historical ROI. If you do embark on a project of filling out past seasons data, give me a shout and I will see what I can do to help. My email address is pendle2790 at hotmail dot com. Thanks in advance.

[Ogy]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hello and happy new year! I'm very interested to see this Michael Wray's system itself (nature of it), if that's not a top secret of course. :lol If it's not too much trouble, could someone just post a link or a paper with maths work used to develop the system? Thanks! :ok

[clarky101]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ogy, just go to the website & download the sheets, they might need up-dating but you can do that by using the BBC results service on the BBC website...as for maths work...:unsure:rollin:rollin:unsure

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

..... Hi Ogy, and welcome to the thread.

If you read through some of the early posts on this thread it will become clear on how this system came into being.To cut a long story short,it is Michael Wrays spreadsheets taken Division by Division and all scores predicted as a 3-0 win are taken as the selections most likely to win.This system has shown a profit for three full seasons, and into the fourth now, so although its not a get rich quick system, it is always nearly steady.If you want a copy of the sheets, give me your e-mail address and I will send you updated copies by return.Cheers.Merlin.:ok

[Fast Eddie]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ogy, the Michael Wray spreadsheets are protected so you can't get into the workings of his predictive model, even if you were abe to understand it all. He seems like a really decent guy so you could email him and ask for an outline of his methods. He offers them all for free when he could quite easily charge a few quid and I think once he himself received his own work offered back to him from someone who was dressing it up as their own! so you can understand why e might be a little protective of all his hard work.

[Ogy]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Thank you all for the replies! Yes, I do understand that my wishes might be a bit too much to ask publicly, on this forum...:$...and I apologize for my indiscretion. I have read some of the early post before and got more familiar with the subject (although my 1st post was quite rough). The main reason why I'd like to look into methodology of the system is to extract, if possible, some new 'strings' that could improve my own 'picture'...to fill in a few more gaps of my own and maybe even make some contribution. In other words, it is not very likely for me to follow a system, if I do not know how the selections are made, even with the respectable experimental success behind it. :cheers

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ...... Sorry I'm late, here are this weekend's 3-0 selections highlighted as most likely to win:- Bradford C 2.39 Rochdale 1.70 Barcelona 1.24 Nice price Bradford if they can do it!:)

[Fast Eddie]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Sorry I haven't been posting up on the Under 2.5 system recntly, still paper trailing and still up and down around the 100pt bank mark so no real progress, todays three picks were all postpones due to the cold. Makes filling in the sheets a bit more fiddly, roll on the warmer weather please, once we get this cold snap out the way. Global warming? my arse! as jim Royal might say. Happy New Year everyone.

Under 2.5 System (from predictions with one goal or less)
Starting Bank	100.00
Current Stake	10.00
Bets so far	189
Winners	102
Losers	87
Strike Rate	54.0%
Average price	1.87
Total Stakes	1691.00
Total Returns	1,704.03
Yield %	0.77%
Profit/-Loss	13.03
ROCE %	13.0%

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... It was all just a little too much for Bradford City which I must admit looked a little dodgy with odds of 2.39, as they jusy managed a creditable draw with Shrewsbury.So the other two duly obliged and it finished two correct from three selections on a day when there were numerous matches cancelled due to frosted pitches.Anyway latest tables:-

Total Staked

870.00

Avg Odds

Avg Stake

Total Returned

961.26

1.70

10.00

Yield

1.105

10.49%

Winners

59

Losers

28

Strike Rate

67.82%

Current Bank

191.26

Profit / Loss

91.26

A small loss moneywise but still a healthy 10.49% yield.:ok

[clarky101]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

And the Norm for the weekend is Leeds @ 1.88

Postponed

[merlin]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ...... there are no selections for the 3-0 system during the week. Will be here later with next weekend's selections in due course.:ok

[Progamble2win]

Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hello to all, I have only just stumbled across this forum despite using Michael Wray’s database model for fixture planning for several years now. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

I am fortunate to be highly advanced in Excel and Visual Basic use, so the databases were pretty easy for me to understand, and modify to my own needs.

This saves a lot of manual calculations and also enables me to not only display all the results that fall into certain criteria – but also use this to keep historical records of every bet.

My day job involves using statistical analysis, and as previously mentioned I am very competent in the workings of Excel and Visual Baisc.

I have been using the sheet to generate lay bets – in particular away from home lays. Its easy for people to pick out a 15/1 shot and lay that, but that’s where your liability needs to be resilient, and your strike rate needs to far exceed 90%.

My system will pick out teams who are usually around 3.5 – 4 (sometimes lower, sometimes higher). With lay betting the amount you win is entirely governed by your starting bank (Liability cover) rather than your stake money when backing.

I’m fortunate enough to start each season with a bank of around £2,000. At the moment I am making around £800 p/m profit – with level lays of £40 per game. During the most recent period (past 4 weeks) I have had a strike rate of 79.41% - a yield of 12.80% and a return of 444.00 from 34 games, with 12 more games this week). So far this is my 2^nd worse return of the season, where in one week I actually lost £54 for the first time in ages.

I have tried many formula’s – particularly lay bet formula’s but this is by far the most successful and consistent. So robust in fact that I am considering making a full time living from it.

Wray’s spreadsheet is good for stats, fixtures and data analysis – very good in fact, but to use the score predictions alone for betting purposes is a very risky idea. Fair play if you can exploit the results to gain a profit, but some of the formaula’s need extra “noise” factored into them (hence why I have modified the basic equations).

I am more than happy to present recent results data on here (If it’s a matter of copy and paste). I have also included analytical tools to give easy to understand bar, pie and line graphs to document success, and pin point which leagues are more successful than others. (I do not use the German or Conference leagues)