Which is the best Yield/SR combination.

[thunderfoot]

I've analised Betfairs datafiles (so only the last 22 months!!!) to extract some football data & 'real' Odds. I've then made some asumptions by applying average Odds from this 22 month period, of certain events, to all of the same events going back to 1995. i.e. if average Odds for 0 - 0 in English Prem. over the 22 months was 8.60, I've applied these Odds to all English Prem 0 - 0's back to 1995. I've done this on all leagues & Correct Scores going back to 1995, therefore the 0 - 0's in English, French, Dutch etc. leagues are different. I've done some number-crunching and have come up with some different scenarios, of which the results are :

SR	Yield	Total Games	Wins	Accum. Nett Return	Losing Days	Max Losing Run (Days)	Max Losing Funds
6.3%	28.6%	36,271	2,282	£10,386	2,019	28	-£232.69
15.4%	24.6%	36,271	5,572	£17,852	1,691	12	-£165.30
22.2%	20.0%	36,271	8,059	£21,782	1,537	14	-£233.16
27.5%	15.8%	36,271	9,961	£23,017	1,495	11	-£241.79
35.5%	13.6%	36,271	12,877	£24,655	1,382	10	-£221.33
42.3%	11.2%	36,271	15,345	£24,394	1,351	10	-£343.39

Which would be considered the best scenario? Low Strike Rate/High Yield or high Strike Rate/Low Yield. Bearing in mind that the high SR/LY will cost me 6 times more than the low SR/HY. Also worth considering is the Losing Run (days). The 'Losing Days' is out of a total of 3,019.

[Datapunter]

Re: Which is the best Yield/SR combination. I have the impression you are approaching this backwards ? All other things put aside, such as money management, timing of placing bets, size of required bank, available volume, etc..... at the end of the day what matters is profit, which makes it simple, go with 'Accum. Nett Return' You can have a yield of 50% with only 10 bets, and you can have a yield of 'only' 5% with 10000 bets, ( assuming the time period in which the bets are placed is the same ) which gives more profit ?