AFL - Round 14

[Ashtee]

Final bets posted at Sports-Punter I don’t expect Geelong to suffer too much shell-shock from the Adelaide shellacking – they should know where things stand by now. They have a full list available and I still expect them to kick on and challenge for the Top-8. Murphy out adds to Carlton already missing some of their best players plus Lappin is in some doubt also. Carlton have shown a glimpse of form over the last three weeks - against questionable opposition. Note also Bris v Carl saw approximately half the players on each side who either lacked experience or could be considered reserve grade – and it did show. Geelong off a six-day traveller and Carlton a seven-day traveller. I expect Geelong to be in control throughout and they can easily cover this margin. Increased stake.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Melbourne have lost this fixture the last three years but, as I’ve said previously, I’m not into betting on past results – just on the present game. Obviously Melbourne are a vastly better team now and that loss record should actually help motivate them for this. This year, unlike last, they trained as usual through the break for the purpose of maintaining focus yet were quietly eased into the season, so they should still be fresh. Brisbane with a long injury list and also a number of players from the Carlton game battling niggling injuries. I can’t see them be competitive enough this week. My price; Melb 1.25

Knew I should have taken the 2.00 earlier, then 1.96, so I better take this before it goes. Collingwood are perhaps battling some mid-season flatness at present yet may very well rebound strongly this week following last weeks shocker. I still maintain the notion of St. Kilda as overrated – a few factors lately have possibly flattered their form IMO, although this venue seems preferable for them. I see Collingwood as the better team and despite not having played at the dome since Rd-5 they are well worth the wager at these odds. My price Collingwood 8/13.

A game to be a little careful of in that Adelaide’s form is very very perfect of late (except for an early struggle against Brisbane in rain - conditions suited Bris). Sydney, to me, show signs that a premiership hangover may still be there. Typical indications where they looked 100% on the job for a few weeks but four-quarter form is waning now. This game should inspire extra motivation for them and we may get a close contest but there is no doubting the advanced quality and professionalism of Adelaide. Adelaide should also be motivated by their biggest benchmark challenge since Rd-2. My price; Adelaide ½

An interesting one where we see West Coast in an obvious form slump playing Hawthorn who have won just one of the last eight. I expected Hawthorn last week to be ready to lift out of the losing habit but instead produced a pathetic effort. They are making definate moves on and off the track during the week aimed at reversing that form. They should also have some key ins which will have them with their strongest line-up for some time. Meanwhile West Coast are playing with lost self belief and also have a very ordinary travelling record. This is their first game at the MCG this season while Hawthorn will appreciate it much better than the dome. Cox out and no certainty that Judd will spring back to his best after being a little slow into stride first up. Hard not to make West Coast the favourite but I feel this is good very good value on Hawthorn. My price; Wet Coast 8/11.

I still feel Richmond are an underrated team. After a slow start to the season they really have been a form team, beating Adelaide and Collingwood along the way. It shouldn’t be forgotten that they struggled with injuries and team balance (opponents in good shape) for a few weeks but now have a short injury list with Newman to miss and his obvious replacement Hartigan also. Richo to carry a hand injury by the looks. Port have been in good form also yet excellent wins over Ess, Carl, Haw and even (the struggling) West Coast was put in some perspective by Melb last week. Chad Cornes is an important out and it seems Tredrea is no certainty. I like the grit and focus Richmond display this year and think they have more than a decent shot at this. The let down game to Hawthorn should mean a decreased possibility of that being a factor this week. My price Port; 8/11

[Bamse81]

Re: AFL - Round 14 Top notch Ashtee! Quality all the way mate :clap Good luck with your selections :hope :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 14 I wrote these yesterday, but got a bit busy to post... ...since then I've learnt that McPhee is doubtful for Essendon...injured at training on Monday, didn't train Wed. Flew to Perth but unlikely...although to be fair, he has been well below his best, so probably no big loss. The one I am concerned about is Fletcher apparently has rib problems. Again, he flew to Perth, and has trained all week, so you'd think he would be right, but he would be a huge loss. I fully expect Pavlich to get 25+...McPhee looked a likely match-up, so the job will probably go to 2nd gamer, Lee!!...But hopefully Freo will continue to be their stupid selves and keep playing him up the ground out of range of goals!...If Fletcher were to miss, McPharlin (I'd expect to start at FF) would also be tough to hold... Ess +35.5

In the last 10 meetings, since 2000, Essendon are 8-2, losing by 27 and 31 both at Subi…Now the Bombers have been favs in most of those, but won at Subi by 44 in 2003 as 2.15 dogs, and last year (in Melbourne) by 35 as 2.50 ‘dogs. Freo just don’t score enough to be giving this many points…They haven’t won a game by more than 35 all season, and even in that game the Kangaroos had the same amount of shots, but blew some easy chances. Essendon’s form has been pretty bad (lost 12 in a row!), but big losses only to Port (60 points), but just 5 less shots, and Port were flying; Adelaide @ AAMI (138, but so what!), Geelong (42) but just 7 less shots, and amazingly 11 more inside 50’s!..and Melbourne by 36, but it was close all game, and they had just 5 less inside 50’s and 6 less shots… …even without the stats, you’d have to say that all of those teams are far better than Freo. (Melbourne beat them by 59, Geelong by 66). The stats over the last 5 games are very similar…Freo -4 inside 50’s per game, Ess -5. Freo allow a shot every 1.91, Ess slightly better again @ 1.93. Freo score every 2.18 entries, Essendon slightly better at 2.14….and somewhat strangely, but Freo score just every 2.22 entries in their home games so far! It’s tough to back a team to win that has lost 12 straight, but Freo aren’t the team to win big, and 6 goals does seem a lot here.

Hawthorn +23.5

Absolutely a play against the flailing Eagles. In the last 5 meetings that haven’t been in Perth, West Coast haven’t beaten the Hawks by more than 19 points (@ Tassie last year), and they have been favs in all but one of those games. Since rd. 6 the Eagles are just 5-3, with no wins by more than 22 points, and although the Hawks have had some beltings, they have been by some good teams…and mostly “away”. In games where they have had the ground advantage (or at least neutral) they have lost to Sydney by 65, (but very misleading scoreline, as they had just 4 less inside 50’s and 5 less shots), lost to the Dogs by 21, and beat Richmond by 41 in Tassie. In 2 trips to Victoria this year, West Coast have beaten Essendon by 21 points and Geelong by 3…and in all away games they average the same amount of inside 50’s as their opp, and score just every 2.02 entries. Hawthorn have had their problems this season with big full-forwards who can take advantage of their weakness down back, but I don’t think West Coast have anyone capable of standing up and kicking a big score for them, esp. now with Cox out.

Brisbane +21.5

This game is slightly misleading…It’s a Melbourne home game, but being played at Brisbane…Where the Lions have dominated recent history, winning the last 3 buy 60, 40 and 74 last year. Melbourne’s midfield isn’t great, only on par with their opp (actually -1 inside 50s per week), and Brisbane have been pretty good at home, av. nearly +3 per game, and the defensive and scoring stats are nearly identical. (with Bris at home) Their recent record has been tainted somewhat by some atrocious kicking for goal, but these things have a habit of evening themselves out over time, so I don’t expect them to keep spraying 8.23 every week!! On the surface Melbourne are flying, but big wins over a poor travelling Port (- Tredrea and Cornes), Essendon, Hawthorn, and Freo…in between have been close games (or losses) v. Sydney, Kangaroos, Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Geelong, St. Kilda…and although they beat Collingwood by 47, they kicked 22.9. The Brisbane backline is suspect, but with Michael back it looks much stronger, and they should be able to score enough at home to keep this one close at least. Also, since then I have been thinking about Geelong...and now I see you're on them too Ash, I think I will take the plunge. My initial thoughts were Collingwood too at 2.00 (could always lay them at Betfair), but the stats show that they aren't going anywhere near as well as it seems...I guess that is also shown by the teams they have (but mainly haven't!) beaten. Sworn off Richmond games...and the other game I actually have a sneaky suspicion that the Kangas might be able to keep close. 8 day break to Dogs (effectively) 6, coming off a hard running, hot day in Perth. Dogs won by 20ish last year, but the game was closer than that...in fact the Kangas had one more inside 50 and only 2 less shots (from memory??). Harris will flog Thompson, but Rocca could well be a wild card...will be a tough job for Hargraves or Morris...Maybe Grant back... Anyway, most logic would suggest the Dogs will simply score too much for the plodding 'Roos to keep up, and that could well be the case... ...either way, no bet for me again this week on Scotty and the boys ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 14 7 x Essendon @ Fremantle under 180.5 (2.30) 3 x 181-200 (3.10) Huge total for two teams that simply can't score. Fremantle have reached 100 just once (100 exactly v. Richmond)...Essendon haven't at all since Lloyd went out of the team, and both teams have av'd just 74 ppg in their last 5. Essendon have named two first year players @ FF and CHF (Ryder and Johns) and will really struggle to score tonight. Even if Fremantle get on a roll, it's a lot of points with one team not scoring. Last year's meeting was 199, but both teams are WAY worse at scoring this season. The last meeting at Subi totalled 158.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 14 Good luck Taza :hope . I'll sit back and watch for a bet at the breaks.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 14 Damn!! 58 shots!!... Certainly didn't expect that, even with the Bombers' inexperience down back. How good did Murphy look for Freo?!...Obviously, being a Docker he will be unbelievably inconsistant, but he made them look good tonight...freed Pavlich right up. Anyway...hopefully Geelong and the Hawks can do the job today. (Wow, tough to say that without a shudder!) :D

[twin85]

Re: AFL - Round 14 unbelievable