AFL - Round 14

[Ashtee]

Final bets posted at Sports-Punter I don’t expect Geelong to suffer too much shell-shock from the Adelaide shellacking – they should know where things stand by now. They have a full list available and I still expect them to kick on and challenge for the Top-8. Murphy out adds to Carlton already missing some of their best players plus Lappin is in some doubt also. Carlton have shown a glimpse of form over the last three weeks - against questionable opposition. Note also Bris v Carl saw approximately half the players on each side who either lacked experience or could be considered reserve grade – and it did show. Geelong off a six-day traveller and Carlton a seven-day traveller. I expect Geelong to be in control throughout and they can easily cover this margin. Increased stake.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Melbourne have lost this fixture the last three years but, as I’ve said previously, I’m not into betting on past results – just on the present game. Obviously Melbourne are a vastly better team now and that loss record should actually help motivate them for this. This year, unlike last, they trained as usual through the break for the purpose of maintaining focus yet were quietly eased into the season, so they should still be fresh. Brisbane with a long injury list and also a number of players from the Carlton game battling niggling injuries. I can’t see them be competitive enough this week. My price; Melb 1.25

Knew I should have taken the 2.00 earlier, then 1.96, so I better take this before it goes. Collingwood are perhaps battling some mid-season flatness at present yet may very well rebound strongly this week following last weeks shocker. I still maintain the notion of St. Kilda as overrated – a few factors lately have possibly flattered their form IMO, although this venue seems preferable for them. I see Collingwood as the better team and despite not having played at the dome since Rd-5 they are well worth the wager at these odds. My price Collingwood 8/13.

A game to be a little careful of in that Adelaide’s form is very very perfect of late (except for an early struggle against Brisbane in rain - conditions suited Bris). Sydney, to me, show signs that a premiership hangover may still be there. Typical indications where they looked 100% on the job for a few weeks but four-quarter form is waning now. This game should inspire extra motivation for them and we may get a close contest but there is no doubting the advanced quality and professionalism of Adelaide. Adelaide should also be motivated by their biggest benchmark challenge since Rd-2. My price; Adelaide ½

An interesting one where we see West Coast in an obvious form slump playing Hawthorn who have won just one of the last eight. I expected Hawthorn last week to be ready to lift out of the losing habit but instead produced a pathetic effort. They are making definate moves on and off the track during the week aimed at reversing that form. They should also have some key ins which will have them with their strongest line-up for some time. Meanwhile West Coast are playing with lost self belief and also have a very ordinary travelling record. This is their first game at the MCG this season while Hawthorn will appreciate it much better than the dome. Cox out and no certainty that Judd will spring back to his best after being a little slow into stride first up. Hard not to make West Coast the favourite but I feel this is good very good value on Hawthorn. My price; Wet Coast 8/11.

I still feel Richmond are an underrated team. After a slow start to the season they really have been a form team, beating Adelaide and Collingwood along the way. It shouldn’t be forgotten that they struggled with injuries and team balance (opponents in good shape) for a few weeks but now have a short injury list with Newman to miss and his obvious replacement Hartigan also. Richo to carry a hand injury by the looks. Port have been in good form also yet excellent wins over Ess, Carl, Haw and even (the struggling) West Coast was put in some perspective by Melb last week. Chad Cornes is an important out and it seems Tredrea is no certainty. I like the grit and focus Richmond display this year and think they have more than a decent shot at this. The let down game to Hawthorn should mean a decreased possibility of that being a factor this week. My price Port; 8/11

[Bamse81]

Re: AFL - Round 14 Top notch Ashtee! Quality all the way mate :clap Good luck with your selections :hope :ok