rooster Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 I'm not one for staking plans especially where stakes get out of control but time to risk a few quid on this one if only to prove the approach right or wrong. Following a lot of stats gathering and two months of paper trading I'm going to start laying odds on shots for real today. Stakes can get high sometimes but two successful lays brings things back under control. I'll be laying at a point per selection and increasing this by a point (more or less) following each losing lay. My aim is a 20% return per selection. Starting bank is 500 quid and when bank hits a 25% increase I'll increase the stake. In reality there will be horses I won't lay but I'll record all odds on as lays for this thread. To keep things simple I'll record results at SP and allow 5% for betfair commission. Its a two year plan and then kiss the job goodbye or cry my eyes out :) Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr shrewdie Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Good Luck rooster, you never know in 2 years time you could be on easy street :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Good Luck rooster' date=' you never know in 2 years time you could be on easy street :hope[/quote'] Thanks mate. Who knows, who knows :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Best of luck with this rooster my only concern would be the last 2 months of paper trading which were the first 2 months of the flat season. Like yourself I've noticed a lot getting turn over of late. The thing now that the going is stable and ussually the next couple of months do throw up more Favs it could change things. One thing that seems to perform well and gives surprising returns is backing odds on to place on the TOTE and some pay a lot more than you would expect. Knowing you though a lot of reasearch will have gone into this and therefore I wish you every success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Good luck rooster :ok I had a look at laying odds-on favourites quite some time ago, but ran out of time to actually implement anything. You certainly have the stats on your side, the lower the price the better. One remark however about noting prices, if not for yourself then maybe for others reading this. You MUST keep a record of the actual price you can lay at on betfair. It will be the difference between profit or loss. The moment you place your bet is a personal one, therefore tracking will give different results for different people. After you've placed your bet the price may go up, or further down even. Using SP and allowing a % for betfair can give you an estimation only. After a paper trail you need another trail using minimal stakes to see what real-life prices do for you. And i'm afraid you'll find that unless you make the effort to get a price as low as possible, usually just before the OFF, you may struggle to get decent profit. At least that was my experiance at the time. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Best of luck with this rooster my only concern would be the last 2 months of paper trading which were the first 2 months of the flat season. Like yourself I've noticed a lot getting turn over of late. The thing now that the going is stable and ussually the next couple of months do throw up more Favs it could change things. One thing that seems to perform well and gives surprising returns is backing odds on to place on the TOTE and some pay a lot more than you would expect. Knowing you though a lot of reasearch will have gone into this and therefore I wish you every success. Great observations as always %man. I know what you mean about the timing of my paper trade and a lot of odds on shots getting turned over - 8 oods on losers in a row the last 3 days :loon Hope I have my research and stats right. Time will tell. One of the reasons I'm starting now is that I'm expecting a relatively rough ride given the going being more stable etc. as you said. At leaset I'll have a good idea by the end of the summer if this is a goer or not. Fingers crossed. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Good luck rooster :ok I had a look at laying odds-on favourites quite some time ago, but ran out of time to actually implement anything. You certainly have the stats on your side, the lower the price the better. One remark however about noting prices, if not for yourself then maybe for others reading this. You MUST keep a record of the actual price you can lay at on betfair. It will be the difference between profit or loss. The moment you place your bet is a personal one, therefore tracking will give different results for different people. After you've placed your bet the price may go up, or further down even. Using SP and allowing a % for betfair can give you an estimation only. After a paper trail you need another trail using minimal stakes to see what real-life prices do for you. And i'm afraid you'll find that unless you make the effort to get a price as low as possible, usually just before the OFF, you may struggle to get decent profit. At least that was my experiance at the time. :hope Very good points Datapunter. You are right on all counts. There is no easy way to solve the problem. I suppose the easiet thing to do is add 10% onto the SP price as this will give a fair indication of prices acheived. As I said in my initial post I won't be laying every odds on shot cos there will be some I fancy as winners. If you've any suggesttions as we go along let us know. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Tuesday 20 June I've added 10% to the SP price. 405 THIRSK Aamaaq (W 8/11F) -0.80 1.00 -0.80 645 N ABBOT Recount (W 5/6F) -0.91 2.00 -2.62 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maria Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Wishing you very good luck with this, Rooster, and watching with great interest ... :ok My own guess (and I hope it's wrong, which they often are!) is that this system will be profitable in May/June and maybe in November/December but maybe not so hot at other times of the year ... :eek I don't quite understand how you gain, overall, by increasing your liability after losing a lay? You're obviously not suggesting that the outcome of the previous event alters the probability of the next event, but equally clearly you'll be increasing the short-term risk in a losing run ... if your system makes a level stake (i.e. level liability, with laying) profit, you don't need to do this anyway to be able to retire on it - just gradually building up the stakes as the bank grows will be more than adequate; but if it doesn't, you're surely increasing the risk of an eventual wipe-out by varying the liability according to the outcome of the previous event ... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 21, 2006 Author Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Wishing you very good luck with this, Rooster, and watching with great interest ... :ok My own guess (and I hope it's wrong, which they often are!) is that this system will be profitable in May/June and maybe in November/December but maybe not so hot at other times of the year ... :eek I don't quite understand how you gain, overall, by increasing your liability after losing a lay? You're obviously not suggesting that the outcome of the previous event alters the probability of the next event, but equally clearly you'll be increasing the short-term risk in a losing run ... if your system makes a level stake (i.e. level liability, with laying) profit, you don't need to do this anyway to be able to retire on it - just gradually building up the stakes as the bank grows will be more than adequate; but if it doesn't, you're surely increasing the risk of an eventual wipe-out by varying the liability according to the outcome of the previous event ... :\ Hi Maria and thanks. This forum really is the business - lots of support and great observations :ok Going back to my intial post I'm not really into staking plans - I like my levels stakes and this exercise should be useful to the observer as to how uncomfortable staking plans can get. The whole notion of increasing stakes based on a previous event is flawed but as the losses will never exceed evens on a given bet we may be able to cope with poor runs. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Hi Rooster A very interesting thread for me as I've been doing something very similar for about a year now with mixed results. After the first poor run of results and subsequent month off, I recorded stats for a large number of these races. From those I found that the most profitable races were those where the odds on Betfair were between 1.6-2.6 on Betfair. Less than 1.5 horses nearly always won, and odds above 2.6 seemed to win sufficiently often to not help profits much. I then followed this for a few months making a small amount of profit, withdrew most of it from Betfair recently and immediately ran into a series of 8 losers (winning horses). Hence I'm now on another month off! I'm currently trying to play around with staking plans to help improve the system. Good luck :hope - I shall watch this thread with interest. DP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 21, 2006 Author Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Hi Rooster A very interesting thread for me as I've been doing something very similar for about a year now with mixed results. After the first poor run of results and subsequent month off, I recorded stats for a large number of these races. From those I found that the most profitable races were those where the odds on Betfair were between 1.6-2.6 on Betfair. Less than 1.5 horses nearly always won, and odds above 2.6 seemed to win sufficiently often to not help profits much. I then followed this for a few months making a small amount of profit, withdrew most of it from Betfair recently and immediately ran into a series of 8 losers (winning horses). Hence I'm now on another month off! I'm currently trying to play around with staking plans to help improve the system. Good luck :hope - I shall watch this thread with interest. DP Keep us posted DP and thanks for your observations :ok Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 21, 2006 Author Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Wednesday 21 June Just the one today. Another losing lay :tongue2 215 HAMILTON Hinton Admiral (W 10/11F) -1.00 3.00 -5.62 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 22, 2006 Author Share Posted June 22, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Thursday 22 June 520 WOLVES Phone In (3RD 4/6F) 3.80 4.00 -1.62 720 BEVERLEY Drumfire (W 8/11F) -0.73 3.42 -3.33 750 BEVERLEY Days of My Life (W 4/5F) -0.80 5.33 -5.70 Next stake is up to 6.33 points :unsure Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted June 23, 2006 Share Posted June 23, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots I have a system of laying fav's in certain races to place. Its been in monthly profit since it started. What I've learned (& I'm by no means a racing punter) is that you need to put in filters to make the picks more systematic e.g. number of runners, length of race, incl/excl AW, out of form yard etc etc. If you retrace your loosers from your paper trades and see if there's any "trends" that a filter may knock them out for you as possible selections - you may be amazed at what falls out. Like I said above, my system is to lay to place, that way I find it keeps my pay-outs bigger and my wins proportionally larger also. Best of luck in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Results for Friday 23 June 325 REDCAR Mobaasher (L 4/5F) 5.33 6.33 -0.37 On the road to recovery hopefully.:hope Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots I have a system of laying fav's in certain races to place. Its been in monthly profit since it started. What I've learned (& I'm by no means a racing punter) is that you need to put in filters to make the picks more systematic e.g. number of runners, length of race, incl/excl AW, out of form yard etc etc. If you retrace your loosers from your paper trades and see if there's any "trends" that a filter may knock them out for you as possible selections - you may be amazed at what falls out. Like I said above, my system is to lay to place, that way I find it keeps my pay-outs bigger and my wins proportionally larger also. Best of luck in any case. Good points Rafa and I couldn't agree more. For the purposes of this thrad I'm gonna whack them all on here for now. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Results for Saturday 24 June Painful day today. 5 odds on shots and they all won :loon Bank now stands at 87 points! 430 AYR Silent Waves (W 8/15) -1.02 1.77 -0.39 630 LINGFIELD Simba Sun (W 4/6) -2.21 2.99 -2.61 715 WARWICK Invincible Force (W 3/10) -1.31 3.99 -3.93 815 WARWICK Spinning Queen (W 10/11) -4.99 4.99 -8.92 830 LINGFIELD Champagne Shadow (W 8/13) -4.07 5.99 -13.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 26, 2006 Author Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Results for Sunday 25 June Taking a real hammering since starting this. 13 from 16 odds on have won! Mathematically it has to turn around - soon i hope :wall Bank stands at 78.21 points. 210 PONTREFACT Malaaq (L 5/6) 8.61 6.99 -6.01 320 HEXHAM Yes Sir (W 4/11) -3.19 7.99 -9.20 340 PONTREACT Alfie Flits (W 5/6) -8.18 8.99 -17.39 430 WARWICK Green Room (W 2/5) -4.39 9.99 -21.79 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Results for Monday 26 June 650 CHEPSTOW Shreddy Shrimpster (2ND 4/6) 10.45 10.99 -11.34 720 CHEPSTOW Ask (W 2/9) -2.87 11.99 -14.21 Bank stands at 85.79 points. Stakes are getting big though but 2 winning lays would return the stakes back to a single point :hope Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Results for Tuesday 27 June Bank satnds at just under 70 points. 300 BRIGHTON Miss McGuire (W 4/6) -9.48 12.99 -23.16 445 BEVERLEY Madaares (2ND 2/7) 13.30 13.99 -9.16 705 N ABBOT Arresting (W 4/6) -10.33 14.16 -19.50 845 N ABBOT Lunar Crystal (W 4/6) -11.06 15.16 -30.57 Total Lays 22 Winners 5 (Strike rate of 23%) Bank 69.43 Level Stakes Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 3, 2006 Author Share Posted July 3, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots The bank finally disappeared on the 30 June in the 440 Market Rasen with Briscoe Place winning :loon A total of 31 lays with only 6 being successful. Just goes to show how a staking plan can get out of control. Laying to level stakes and allowing 10% above sp the overall loss would have been 10.88 points. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 3, 2006 Share Posted July 3, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Unlucky Rooster. However I think in the Autumn you should retry this system. When the weather turns the race conditions make it harder for these horses to win. I also feel that you need to not lay the very odds on horses (below 1.5 on Betfair) as these rarely lose. Play around with your stats and I'm sure you'll find a set values to work with. As I said previously my stats showed 1.6 - 2.6 as profitable on this type of system, but it too took a turn for the worse in May/June. I'll be back using it in September. Then you move on and adapt the system so that next June you begin to back the odds on favourites. DP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 4, 2006 Author Share Posted July 4, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots You're not so daft pegasus :) I believe you're right in all you say and probably the staking system was a bit daft but like I said at the outset I'm not a fan of staking sytems really. Roll on the bad weather :) Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted September 14, 2006 Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Hey Rooster Now is the time to resurrect this system. I've been laying the favourites when their odds are between 1.6 and 2.6 in races for the past month on and off and although I've not kept accurate figures my betfair balance is now a lot bigger than it was in June/July. I always stop at a winner so after the 2:10 at Ayr I stopped today but, I note that the 2:30 odds on favourite also failed to even place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted September 14, 2006 Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots .....and in the 2:40 at Ayr the 1/2 favourite comes second. :nana Another missed opportunity for me but I'm sticking to quitting whilst I'm ahead for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 14, 2006 Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots One of the reasons I'm starting now is that I'm expecting a relatively rough ride given the going being more stable etc. as you said. At leaset I'll have a good idea by the end of the summer Rooster I think you new what to expect at the time of year you started this thread and as a few of the last post have stated maybe now is a better time. If we never try these ideas you never know what might happen but now the summers over at least you've found the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted September 16, 2006 Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: Laying Odds On Shots Just taken a quick look and all 3 short priced favourites so far today have lost. New 13:50, 5/4 fav 4th Cat 14:00, 10/11 fav 2nd Ayr, 14:10, 5/6 fav 3rd This is getting very tempting for me to no longer stop after the first winner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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