brael Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Can't make up my mind if I called this right or if I got my sums wrong... Playing at a $0.12/$0.25 pot limit cash table, I'm dealt A8s. Those who call limp in and the pre-flop pot hits $1.50(?). The flop leaves me 1 card short of the nut flush. Player UTG flat calls but player next to him bets $4.37 (:loon ). Everyone folds to me. I think my odds of completing the hand were 3.5/1? Question is what were the pot odds? My gut reaction then was that I was getting odds to call, which I did, and successfully completed my hand on the turn. Mathematically, did I make the wrong move? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? I think your pot odds are: (4.37 + 1.5) : 4.37 5.87 : 4.37 You had nowhere near the pure odds you needed....... I presume the player was all in, and noone else was invlolved in the hand/expected to be involved in the hand - i.e. there were no implied odds.... You sure about your odds of 3.5/1? 9 cards to make your flush, with two cards to come - isn't it about 36%? (i.e. just less than 2:1 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? Last months article in Poker Player Magaine on Pot Odds is here - http://www.pokerplayermagazine.co.uk/pokertips/skillsandstrategy/956/learn_how_to_calculate_pot_odds.html Included within it.... So, let’s say you’re playing Hold’em and have reached the river. You have four hearts and need the fifth to make a flush and win the hand. There are 13 hearts in the deck in total and you can see four of them. So there are nine hearts left that will help you complete your flush. You can see six cards (two in your hand and four on the board). Therefore there are 46 possible outcomes for the next card and nine are winning cards – or ‘outs’ for you (i.e. the nine hearts left that will complete your flush). So the chances (or probability) of you hitting your flush are nine out of 46 – or 19.57%. Remember - if your opponent is all in, then you KNOW you will get to see 2 more community cards - not just the one talked about here........ Okay, let’s go back to the example of the flush draw on the river. The odds of that flush card arriving are 4/1. These are always the chances by the way – you can squeeze your rabbit’s foot, cross your fingers or cover the screen. That flush card will come up one time in five. Therefore, to make it worthwhile calling the bet you need better pot odds than 4/1. So if it costs $10 to call on the river and there’s $80 in the pot – odds of 8/1 – it’s a calling situation. With the same example – still looking for that fifth heart – imagine there was $20 in the pot and it costs you that same $10 to call. Now you’re only being offered pot odds of 2/1 – far worse than the 4/1 chance of making your flush. It’s a bad investment and you should muck your cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? Interesting one... looks like a bad call... 5.87 in the pot, costs 4.37 to call... odds of 1.34 to a 1 in 5 chance of completing the hand so bad move on my part. If he had flat called then pot odds would have been 7/1 ((1.50 + .25)/.25)... the problem of playing for buttons I suppose! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? BTW GaF?... thanks for your input on this. :ok I calculated 3.5/1 from 20 cards being dealt to the players plus the flop cards so that left 29 in the pack. I had 9 chances of making the flush so that's 29/9 or 3.22/1. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? BTW GaF?... thanks for your input on this. :ok I calculated 3.5/1 from 20 cards being dealt to the players plus the flop cards so that left 29 in the pack. I had 9 chances of making the flush so that's 29/9 or 3.22/1. :cheers But not all the 9 cards which make the flush will be in the 29 cards left in the pack: almost certainly some of the other players were dealt a card of that suit. You only know what 5 of the cards are (yours and the flop), so the chance of any other card (the turn or the river) being that suit are 9 in 47, or a little under 20%. In theory, the betting (or lack of it) gives you some information that affects the chances of the other players having cards of the flush suit, but it's hard to calculate this and won't usually make a huge difference. But depending on the flop, you might be able to judge that the guy betting is less likely than usual to have cards of that suit: e.g., if the flop is Q 7 2, with Q and 7 of the flush suit, then it looks likely he has at least a Q or a 7 in his hand, reducing the probability of his having cards of the flush suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doob Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? The Ace in your hand may well give you another 3 outs, you may have runner runner straight opportunities (getting desperate now) plus the guy going all-in may also be on a flush draw or straight draw. I think this is a good call and I know it's wrong to say this but for $4.37 you can't fold can you? Well played, good call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? I think this is a good call and I know it's wrong to say this but for $4.37 you can't fold can you? SOrry - disagree strongly - whether it is $4.37 on 12c/25c tables or $437 on $12/£25 tables, the decision is the same - and it's a poker decision based on multiplier of the BigBlinds, Pot Odds, read on opponent etc..... If on the low limit tables, you think along the lines of "it's only 10c", then you will never lay anything down!!!! (and you will lose consistently!!!). Whether it be low stakes, or higher stakes than you are used to, the monetary value of an individual decision should not have an impact. However, agree that there may well be other outs (and I didn't look at that - just the flush!!!!). In the majority of cases though (without a specific read on my opponent) I fold this hand............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? Here comes the pot odds dunce to stir things up........ I'm not arguing with the maths or the pot odds, but a question I'd like to ask is; Would implied odds have any bearing on whether (technically) Brael made a good call or not, seeing as he made his hand on the next card, or does it have no bearing, because as there is only 1 player left in the hand, the best r.o.i. he can get is evens?:unsure And if this is a stupid question, blame Brael.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? My bad play gets worse... made the same call, in the exact same position and hit my hand again during the Betfair freeroll... worse still GaF? was at the same table... thankfully, I don't think he knew it was me! :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tax_Monkey Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? My bad play gets worse... made the same call' date=' in the exact same position and hit my hand again during the Betfair freeroll... worse still GaF? was at the same table... thankfully, I don't think he knew it was me! :rollin[/quote'] He will now :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? Here comes the pot odds dunce to stir things up........ I'm not arguing with the maths or the pot odds, but a question I'd like to ask is; Would implied odds have any bearing on whether (technically) Brael made a good call or not, seeing as he made his hand on the next card, or does it have no bearing, because as there is only 1 player left in the hand, the best r.o.i. he can get is evens?:unsure And if this is a stupid question, blame Brael.;) My understanding of implied odds is that you're guessing how much players in front of you are likely to put into the pot so you can calculate your likely pot odds. Dunno about anyone else but I find this difficult to do as its hardly basic arithmetic and a game can move quite quickly. Here's another thought... is there a possibility that the opposing player was trying to manipulate the odds to make it bad call for me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerBarney Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? I can't remember where I read (or heard) this, but when calculating odds there's a nice simple formula for doing it quickly. On the flop - take the number of outs you have, multiply by 4, subtract 2. On the turn - take the number of outs you have, multiply by 2, add 2. So, on the flop you have 9 cards to make the flush giving you a 9*4-2 = 34% chance, or 1 in 3. So, pot odds would need to be 3:1 to make it a worthwhile call, so at 5.87:4.37 you weren't priced in. Of course, in a tourney the chance of taking out another player and moving up the ranking may make it a sensible call. Or perhaps you just like to gamble :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? Would implied odds have any bearing on whether (technically) Brael made a good call or not' date=' seeing as he made his hand on the next card, or does it have no bearing, because as there is only 1 player left in the hand, the best r.o.i. he can get is evens?:unsure[/quote'] Implied odds are the extra you can win should you hit and have a bet called by your opponent. If your opponent is all in, then you can win nothing else from him and there are therefore no implied odds. If there is someone else to act after you who has a larger stack, then implied odds come into it - HOWEVER, you also have the danger that your original odds calculation is wrong, as he may raise you before you see the next card....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 27, 2006 Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? PS - Brael - OF COURse I know it was you - that was why I said hello!!! Assumed your ignoring me though meant you didn't know it was me :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Pot Odds Miscalculation? PS - Brael - OF COURse I know it was you - that was why I said hello!!! Assumed your ignoring me though meant you didn't know it was me :P :lol Sorry mate... must have had my chat switched off. Thought it was helluva quiet! Didn't realise how much hard work it was trying to play poker and make the tea at the same time! :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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