GaF Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Paddy Power are running a couple of MTTs restricted to 999 players, but I imagine could have significantly fewer. There is a guaranteed overlay. First place (and I think there will only be a prize for first) is a $12,500 WSOP package. Buy in is $10 + $1, so even if full, there is an overlay of $12,500 - (999 * $11) = $1511 - if numbers are below 999, then the overlay increases directly!!! Sunday 28th May at 16:00 BST. Wednesday 31st May at 20:00 BST. WSOP Express Choo-Choo-Choose to qualify on paddypowerpoker.com Like a super train* on a non-stop journey straight to Las Vegas, the WSOP Express will take you all the way to the Double-You-S-Oh-Pee for just ten bucks. No messing around with feeders to qualifiers to satellites. No ladders, insider knowledge or paddy points required: one lucky geezer will sit down with $10 worth of chips and get off in Vegas with a seat for the 2006 WSOP. 2 x $10 Freezeouts for WSOP Package There's plenty a room aboard! There are two WSOP Express tournaments: » Sunday May 28th at 4pm » Wednesday May 31st at 8pm Both tournaments cost $10+1 (that'd be $11 mate) to enter. Tournament entry is limited to 999 players and first prize will get our $12,500 WSOP package which includes $10,000 Main Event entry and $2,500 to cover travel and accommodation. And that's that – so easy, so cheap, so paddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express overlay?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express overlay?! An overlay is a prize fund greater than the amount of the buy ins - so added value....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express so each tourny is 10 +1 with 12500 added? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express so each tourny is 10 +1 with 12500 added? No not added - but $12,500 package guaranteed. The $11 paid goes (I believe) straight into the pockets of Paddy Power. HOWEVER Paddy Power recompense that by giving the winner a $12,500 WSOP Package. The value of that is greater than what they will receive (maximum of 999 x $11) - hence the overlay....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express That's absolutely cracking - most tourneys directly giving away a Main Event seat are $100-$500 buyin! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Starts in 54 mins - just 181 entrants so far :loon :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Still fewer than 300 in with 3 minutes to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovalman Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express I fancy my chances with just over 300 runners. $10 is brilliant value. I'd still prefer something for top 27 though as I'd hate to get to get to the final 2 and lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Not my day. Called an all-in with KK. He had AJ and hit an A on the river, leaving me with about 350 chips. Doubled up fairly soon afterwards. Then found myself all in with 77 against two AK's ... they hit an A on the river. Out in 257th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovalman Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express My dreaded JJ ran into QQ again. They are officially the hand I hate the most. Still better to take chances now and build up a decent stack than scrape through for a few hours hoping everyone knocks each other out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewie2000 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express My AQo got called by a J6??? with an AJx flop I raised it only for him to hit a 2nd J on the turn.... frustration made me pay him off.... doh! Then my KK ran into a Q74 flop only to be cuaght by a set of 4's.... Bring on Wednesday...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express GazBlades is chip leader!!! :loon :loon Chewie just went out on my table when his KK was turned over :sad Over hald the field gone in 40 mins!!!!! But these blinds are manic and crazy given the prize on offer!!!! It's like a Turbo tourney!! I'm sat nicely in 46th...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Just Lost half my stack got dealt 89 in bb. called a small raise flop is 10,j,q. check raise all in. he turns A K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express My dreaded JJ ran into QQ again. They are officially the hand I hate the most. Still better to take chances now and build up a decent stack than scrape through for a few hours hoping everyone knocks each other out. That was me ovalman was unlucky to run into my ladies. nearly out, some guy called my all in with AQ, he turned a 7 and caught a seven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GB80 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express GazBlades is chip leader!!! :loon :loon I was......... Still doing ok, but i've taken a couple of unlucky hits. I was due them though, as I'd had a very very lucky 5 minutes to get the chip lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Di I play this wrong? my 78 hearts Big blind flopped 5c 6h jh previous guy went all in for 5000, I hut him on a jack. so gambled and called. with the the possibility of a straight or flush. he turn j k no hearts. turn is a king hearts, hit my flush River is a king. full house wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Gaz and I both top 10, with 60 odd left ...... but he's nicking my blinds :loon :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GB80 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Gaz and I both top 10' date=' with 60 odd left ...... but he's nicking my blinds :loon :loon[/quote'] I had bullets. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Gaz and I both top 10' date=' with 60 odd left ...... but he's nicking my blinds :loon :loon[/quote'] :@ Have you told him who you are? Good luck, both! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Conventionally I feel you were probably wrong to call Rosco - we don't know how big the pot was, but I suspect you didn't have pot odds to call (assuming your flush would have been good, which with hindsight it wasnt!!). HOWEVER, In this tourney, with nothing for 2nd, there is a strong argument for "gambling" if the need is there to keep in touch, even if you don't have the odds you need to do it- in this tourney it is more important than normal to be aware of average stack (and make sure you have at least 60% of it!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express I had bullets. ;) Ok - ty That later hand I had Ah8h and flopped KhQhJh - was hoping you'd call so I had the chance for the Royal!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Conventionally I feel you were probably wrong to call Rosco - we don't know how big the pot was, but I suspect you didn't have pot odds to call (assuming your flush would have been good, which with hindsight it wasnt!!). Assuming the flush or straight would be good he's got 50% (ish) chance of hitting so surely he must be gettng pot odds?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GB80 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Ok - ty That later hand I had Ah8h and flopped KhQhJh - was hoping you'd call so I had the chance for the Royal!!!!! Can't remember what I had, but you should have checked! ;) I'm gone 48th. :( Good luck, I'll pop in and watch you win it in a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Assuming the flush or straight would be good he's got 50% (ish) chance of hitting so surely he must be gettng pot odds?:unsure Sorry - yes you're absolutely right - of course he had the odds!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Sorry - yes you're absolutely right - of course he had the odds!!!!!! Phew:$ :$. I thought there was some new book where they'd changed it:lol :lol :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express At the second break I am 10th of 24 left with marginally less than average stack...... Have the big stack one seat to my left and have done for ages - was hoping the last table movement would shift him or me :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express HOWEVER, In this tourney, with nothing for 2nd, there is a strong argument for "gambling" if the need is there to keep in touch, even if you don't have the odds you need to do it- in this tourney it is more important than normal to be aware of average stack (and make sure you have at least 60% of it!!) GaF, don't you DARE distract yourself by thinking about what I'm about to write while you're still playing! The WSOP seat is far more important! In fact, don't even read it until later! I'm not convinced. Your aim is very simple ... maximize your chance of coming first. True, you will need to be lucky to do that. But does taking an anti-percentage action increase your chance of winning? I doubt it. Is your chance of winning with 4000 chips more than twice your chance of winning with 2000 chips? I don't think so. You need to be lucky, but if you play against the odds, you'll need more luck to make up for it. I think the only case when it's right to deliberately play against the odds is when you think you're a worse player than average. Not relevant to the hand in question, of course, where everybody now agrees that rosco did play with the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express Oh well - roll on Wednesday :sad Slapdash - the long run to get the correct ev in Poker is a very long time - in the short run, if I am short stacked (especially where only 1st is paid) then I stand by the argument that I will take my chances with what are long term negative ev moves and hope that short term variance will come to my aid!!! It is a choice between this, or being blinded away and eventually so short stacked that the other players can play against me with anything. For me, this is even more evident in a tourney like this where first place wins $12,500 and 2nd place wins $0!!! I agree, that your chances of winning are the same whether you have 4000 chips or 2000 chips (er....almost - you have more fold equity with 4000 chips ;) ) - HOWEVER, when you have 2000 chips, you have less TIME and are more desperate. You need to make lower ev plays (even negative ev plays) more when you have 2000 chips than when you have 4000 chips!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Paddy Power WSOP Express My 2000 and 4000 figures weren't well-chosen ... replace them with 20,000 and 40,000 if you like. They weren't supposed to represent tiny stacks. Let's put some more realistic numbers to this: Suppose you have 8000 chips (excluding what you've already put in the pot), when the average is 20,000. Suppose there are 2000 chips in the pot before the flop and after the flop somebody bets another 8000, so you have the choice of folding (and starting the next hand with 8000 chips) and calling (and either getting knocked out if you lose the hand or starting the next hand with 18,000 chips if you win). Your pot odds are 5/4, so conventionally you would need more than a 44% chance of winning to have pot odds to call. Suppose you know you only have a 40% chance. Suppose your probability of winning the tournament starting the next hand with 8000 chips is P. Then if you fold, your probability of winning the tournament is P. Suppose your probability of winning the tournament starting the next hand with 18,000 chips is Q. Then if you call, the probability of winning the tournament is 0.4 times Q (you have to win this hand and then you have to go on to win the tournament). So the right thing to do simply depends on whether P is bigger or smaller than 0.4 times Q. I.e., is your chance more or less than 2.5 times as big if you have 2.5 times as many chips? This brings me back to one of my favourite questions, which I think is THE Fundamental Question of Poker Tournament Strategy, and which I would love to know the answer to. How does your chance of winning depend on your stack size (and the size of the blinds, average stack, etc,. etc.)? Conventional wisdom says that in rebuy tournaments it's usually a positive EV move to rebuy, because even though you are restarting with a small stack, this is worth proportionally more than a large stack, chip for chip. I.e., the more chips you have, the less the marginal value of an extra chip. Whether that's true, or is true for all stack sizes at all stages of a tournament, I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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