Juuso Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 I'll start with one early game today. NY Yankees @ NY Mets Mets -1.5 2.7 (Pinnacle) 5 units NYY: Mike Mussina (6-1, 2.56 ERA) NYM: Pedro Martinez (5-0, 3.19 ERA) The Yankees are having quite a lot of injury problems right now. Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield has been on the disabled list for a while and now Bubba Crosby is also added with a strained right hamstring. Also, catcher Jorge Posada left Friday`s game after 1 1/2 innings because of a sore upper back and outfielder Bernie Williams won`t start Saturday because of a tight buttocks muscle. Posada is questionable for tonights game. Yankees batting lineup is considerably weaker with these missings. They'll also have to insert pitcher in the batting lineup. Pedro has been once again amazing the whole season not losing a game yet. Pedro knows Yankees well from his days in Boston. He is 11-10 against Yankees with a 3.13 ERA, holding them to a combined .211 batting average with only 17 home runs allowed in 427 at-bats. Yankees starter Mike Mussina has been outstanding this season also. He also holds a good record against the Mets. He has a 5-2 record in 8 games vs. The Mets with a 4.01 ERA. But, in his last three starts he went 1-2, with 8-5 loss in the most recent game last year. Pitchers are pretty equal here, but i'll go with the runline on home team. Yankees have a lot of missing players tonight making Mets batting lineup clearly the stronger one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Ok, gonna give it a shot picking my own selections tonight: NY Yankees @ NY Mets Yankees +1.5 4/7 Ladbrokes The World Series favourites head across the city to face the mets today and must be a good bet to cover the points line. Last night's game was a closely fought affair and tonight will be similar. Can see the yankees sneaking this one or losing a close one, no way will the mets cover the line of -1.5. If anything, the line should be the other way round with super Derek Jeter in fine form. Mike Mussina pitches for the Yankees tonight and when he's on form the Yankees are practically unbeatable. 10 pts I will be keeping track of my profit/loss. All bets will be 10 pts level stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Damn, didnt realise the Subway game was an early start. Looking good Juuso, fancied NYM myself with Martinez pitching after those stats I posted yesterday. Any clue what the ML prices were, who was fav? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Damn, didnt realise the Subway game was an early start. Looking good Juuso, fancied NYM myself with Martinez pitching after those stats I posted yesterday. Any clue what the ML prices were, who was fav? Yankees were 2.23 at Pinnacle:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 BAL @ WAS Although WA havnt been in great form, least of all at home, Armas has been. His last 4 results have all been wins. Last time out he pitched seven shutout innings against the Braves and since his falling apart against Florida he's given up 5 hits and 1 run in 13 innings. Lopez hasnt won since opening day.LTO he allowed 10 hits and 8 runs in just 4 innings against the RedSox. He's given up at least 4 Earned runs in every one of his starts so far this year. WAS to win 1.70 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Cheers Mr I. Im guessing NYM were around 1.70-1.85 favs then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Wow - the Yanks send it into extra innings after being 0-4 in the 9th That certainly keep all bets alive!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 I keep half an eye on the MLB but I'm certainly no expert. Feeling good at the mo after following a tip on the Whitesox. Anyone got any more winners for me to follow tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juuso Posted May 20, 2006 Author Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 What a splendid job by closer Billy Wagner. Facing bottom of the Yankees lineup and walking 3 and hit one with a pitch. Looked like he was pitching for Yankees. Randy Johnson award of the day should go to him, LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Phew, looked like my first tip would be a loser for a long time, but the money comes home. 1 BET AT 4/7 10PTS WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 BOS @ PHI Beckett's had a good season so far going 5-1, 4.24. He's been on top of his game his last two starts allowing 5 runs over 14 innings, striking out 13 and walking 0. From his time in the NLhe has a 6-3, 3.79 record in 16 outings against the Phillies. Myers record is a little decieving. 2-1, 2.05 ERA but he's only given up 6 runs in 22 innings in his last 3 outings, picking up 3 no decisions but the Phillies winning all 3. Myers has one shutout against BOS but a 12.27 ERA in his other 3 starts against them. Ortiz, who should be taking his normal interleague position at first base, is 4 for 7 with a homer, a double and 4 walks against Myers. After a good run of games , the Phiilies are currently on a 4 game losing streak. BOS to win 1.93 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juuso Posted May 20, 2006 Author Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 I'll try a few more for the night. Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Nationals -1.5 2.48 (Pinnacle) 5 units WSH: RHP Tony Armas Jr. (4-2, 3.02 ERA) BAL: RHP Rodrigo Lopez (1-6 7.86 ERA) Baltimore won the interleague clash yesterday, but imo today Nationals has an excellent chance of getting even. Tony Armas has been solid as a rock lately, winning last 4 decisions, going at least 'till the 6th innings in each game and not allowing more than 2 runs in any of those games. On the other hand Baltimore starter Rodrigo Lopez has been just plain bad this season, He hasn't won a decision since the opening day, has given up at least 4 earned runs in every game this season and has pitched really bad lately. He has a ERA of 10.34 in May. Nats also has a bit better bullpen, making the pitching matchup more favorable for the hosts today. Orioles may have slightly better batting lineup, but they do have some injury problems right now, so i really think trying the Nationals is a solid bet. I'm going with the rl for some extra value. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals Royals 2.63 (Pinnacle) 4 units KC: RHP Denny Bautista (0-1, 4.50 ERA) STL: RHP Anthony Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) This might look like a crazy bet on the first glance, but i see good value in the odds. Royals are 0-10 Against Left Handed starters, 2-20 on the road, some awful numbers really. But, At home against Right handed starters they are 8-5 averaging nearly 6 runs a game. Yesterday they lost 6-9 because of awful pitching, but still managed to score bunch of runs of one of the best pitchers in the game, Chris Carpenter. Today Cards will have Anthony Reyes on the mound, who hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet this season. He has been good in the Triple-A, going 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 7 starts and was promoted to Cards rotation in place of injured Sidney Ponson. Kansas will send Denny Bautista on the mound. He is a hard throwing righty, who has been decent enough this season. Teams don't give much importance to these interleaugue games. We can't expect Cardinals to be super motivated either, as the divisional games are much more important to them and these interleague games are in par with regular series with non-divisional opponents. Sure, Cardinals is clearly the better batting team overall and Royals are the worst team in the American League, but they do have quite a big home park advantage, and the stats are backing that fact. Also their batting game vs RHP has been really good at home. 2.62 is a bit too much for them in this spot making it a value bet imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Baltimore +1.5 @ 1.5 Generally available Washington been poor recently and I would expect an outfit such as Baltimore to cover this runline. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 8/15 Generally available Cards are my favourite team at the moment. Royals are cack. Simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Forgot to mention. Usual 10pt stakes here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Baltimore +1.5 @ 1.5 Generally available Washington been poor recently and I would expect an outfit such as Baltimore to cover this runline. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 8/15 Generally available Cards are my favourite team at the moment. Royals are cack. Simple This is really sad mate:lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Yeah, my reasoning is hardly sound lol I know. But I'm just having a crack really. Not ultra knowledgable about the game if I'm totally honest. Seem to be doing ok tonight tho :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Seems strange to me how all of your tips so far have been opposing Juuso. I think that one just about managed to get fouled off. Count still 0 - 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Like him or not, Big Barry Bonds earlier hit No. 714 to tie with Babe Ruth for 2nd in the all-time Homerun records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesam Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Yeah congrats to Barry. Just for the record I actually like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juuso Posted May 21, 2006 Author Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Baltimore +1.5 @ 1.5 Generally available Washington been poor recently and I would expect an outfit such as Baltimore to cover this runline. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 8/15 Generally available Cards are my favourite team at the moment. Royals are cack. Simple LOL. You've given me good laughs. Go ahead and fade me. I've had a few bad days recently and you seem to have taken something personal against me. Frankly, i don't give a shit. I've seen enough idiots like you on different boards. Grow up, i'm not holding your wallet and if you decide to overstake from someones pick, it's your problem. If you look the odds i take, they are not small and my strategy is not to pick only winners, but foremost pick odds higher than the probability of the outcome. Baseball betting is a grind it out marathon not a spurt. You have to separate the pitching(starter+bullpen) and batting game of the teams, pitching is well over 50% importance in baseball punting, see how the teams perform against Left and Right handed pitchers, on the road etc. There is rarely more than 60%-40% matches other than bottom feeder teams with a bad pitcher vs. the cream of the league. Baseball is a complicated sport and nearly anything can happen in a single game. One bad pitch or a clutch hit can make an enormous difference. Every punter has streaks and swings throughout the season. I've made over 200 bets so far this season and am slightly in profit. I bet only maximum few % of my bank in one single bet. With your knowledge of the MLB, go ahead and take those +1.5 bets and big faves with odds around 1.4-1.5. They are the ones with biggest margin, as public are all over them. You can get a great strike rate, but your return will be poor and bad streak will kill your bank. You obviously are not even using the best bookies for baseball, as i can see from those poor odds you've taken. You will learn the hard way eventually.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Mlb 20/5 Oooooooo ! Fight! Fight! Fight! :rollin Gotta say I like a good 33/20, 9/5 for boosting the profits. Sox v Cubs has been great for that last 2 nights..... hoping for similar today. With Mr Contreras on the mound it might be restrictive though...who knows ...maybe 6/5 ish on the -1.5 as Zambrano has been useful for Cubs too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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