Lardonio Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Hi, I'm developing a ratings system which I'll probably do a public test of in this forum. For this I have a hypothetical question for you about home advantage. How big would you say this is, in %? For example if two teams played a neutral venue and the chances were 50%-50% for home/away win (excluding a draw for simplicity) - what would you say the percentage should be if one team played at home? 55-45? 60-40? 53-47? etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Re: Question regarding home advantage A good question that a clever person can answer properly, but for me it would have to be depending on each individual case. For example, a team with a long unbeaten home record would surely have a bigger home advantage over similar opponents, turning the average (60-40 being my guess) into something like 75-25. Good luck with your system though. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Re: Question regarding home advantage My Fleet Trebles thread was based on backing home wins. With the right ratings methods, it can be profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Re: Question regarding home advantage well if it helps, the average goal advantage for home teams in the premiership is around +0.4 of a goal. also on average, from the last 3 seasons there have been 46.66% home wins 25.88% draws 27.46% aways so about 19-20% more than the away chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 Re: Question regarding home advantage well if it helps, the average goal advantage for home teams in the premiership is around +0.4 of a goal. also on average, from the last 3 seasons there have been 46.66% home wins 25.88% draws 27.46% aways so about 19-20% more than the away chance. Which would suggest a 55 / 45 spilt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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