Simple Play-off System

[Bedlam]

The play off results are almost impossible to predict, so must be very difficult for the bookies to price up,with often a team who were largely unfancied, or the lowest league position eventually gaining promotion. My intention is to use this unpredictability to my advantage.At first I couldn't decide whether to lay the favourites in each division, or back the outsiders. i have now decided to do the latter, as Betfair don't seem to be running a book on the Conference play-offs so laying the favourite isn't an option for me & I noticed that my fancy, Morecombe are the outsiders, with most bookies, despite being the in-form team. I will start with a bank 100pts & will bet half on the outsiders in each division from 1st to Conf (4x 12.5 pts bets) before the Semi finals. Then the other half of the starting bank on the outsider in the final (unless of course a team I have previously backed as the outsider of 4 suddenly becomes favourite for the final). Start Bank 100pts Championship Play offs: Back Watford 12.5pts @ 4.5 (Betfair) Conference: Back Morecombe 12.5 pts @ 5.0 (Sporting Odds)

[Bedlam]

Re: Simple Play-off System Interesting dilemma for me after the Palace/Watford result, as I could now lay Watford for around evens with Betfair, & close the bet down for a nice profit. If i'd gone down the road of laying the favourites for promotion(Palace), that bet would be virtually in the bag now. There is no clear favourite or outsider for the div 1 play-offs, so i'll watch the market for a couple of days, maybe a lay would be more appropriate in this market Next bet: Backed Lincoln 12.5 pts @ 4.4 (Betfair) My natural instinct is to lay Wycombe @ 4.0 as they have been awful of late! I'm suprised that Grimsby aren't clear favourtites for promotion.