Mlb 11/4

[Mr Intensity]

Sport	MLB
Event	Toronto Blue Jays (Towers) @ Boston Red Sox (Beckett)
Selection	Boston (Beckett) -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	11/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.11 (Back)
Reasoning	Probably not the best play I'll make all season, but I want to make a play on the day games and I fancy this one. Boston have started very well going 5-1 and now going to Fenway I fancy them to put a big performance in. Beckett was strong in his first appearance pitching 7 innings giving up 1 run, and at home I don't expect him to give up much. The injury to Crisp is a concern but I think they've got enough firepower to get it done. Toronto have started not too well, going 3-3 after two home series' at home to Minnesota and Tampa. Towers was roughed up in his first outing giving up 5 runs in 4.2 innings, and that doesn't bode well considering he has an awful record against Boston (ERA of 6.75 lifetime). I think Boston can start strongly at home as they did away. Decent value as several of the UK books go odds on.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees Royals +2 2.19 (Pinnacle) 4 units NYY: RHP Chien-Ming Wang (0-0, 3.86 ERA) KC: RHP Joe Mays, (0-1, 12.46 ERA) Kansas trying to spoil Yankees home opener. Ok, probably won't happen but i'm taking Royals +2 with these odds. they have gone up all day and now you get about same odds for +2 than what opened for +1.5. Joe Mays was bad in his season debut but he can't go on that bad in every game. Yankees starter Wang is also very average pitcher. He has limited MLB experience. about 20 starts, with 8-5 4.02 ERA last year. While he was 5-2 at Yankee stadium last season he was also lit up quite many times and pounded out of the game. Ok, Kansas is one of the worst MLB teams, but they have improved with guys like Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzialanek etc. in the offseason. This is baseball after all, so i wouldn't touch that ridiculous price on Yankees. They have monster hitting but bullpen and starting pitcher today is not that good. Kansas could keep up on the scoring board and this could be a tight one. I'm willing to take my chances with +2 runs with this very attractive price. Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Blue Jays 2.8 (Pinnacle) 4 units TOR: RHP Josh Towers (0-1, 7.71 ERA) BOS: RHP Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) Here we got an dramatically improved Toronto team against Red Sox in Bostons home opener. Beckett is one of the most overhyped pitchers of the league imo. He is not much over .500 in his career. Last year his numbers were 15-8 3.37 ERA with 178.2 IP. While Towers had 13-12 3.71 ERA 208.2 IP. Imo the pitchers are quite equal, Towers saw more action last year facing better AL hitting lineups than Beckett did in Florida. With all the new acquisitions Toronto made in the offseason, they are not much worse team than Boston really. Toronto will win in this exact spot about 2 out of 5 times, making it a good value play. Odds haven't also moved at all in this game despite Boston is probably getting a lot of public money, there is a reason for that. Either Toronto is getting moneywise equal action and/or bookies are not risking rising already a bit too high Toronto odds.