MLB - 04 April

[robby]

Starting bank - 259.2pts Well, here we are on day two. Some pretty good games coming in. Kinda feels like opening day in a way. Wakefield, Mussina, Smoltz, Morris, Pettitte on another team would be an easy pick for an ace, but by choice or opposing talent they're pitching on day 2. Cleveland (Westbrook) at Chicago Sox (Garcia) Minnesota (Santana) at Toronto (Halladay) Pittsburgh (Santos) at Milwaukee (Capuano) Boston (Wakefield) at Texas (Padilla) Florida (Mitre) at Houston (Pettitte) NY Yankees (Mussina) at Oakland (Harden) LA Angels (Lackey) at Seattle (Pineiro) San Francisco (Morris) at San Diego (Estes) Atlanta (Smoltz) at LA Dodgers (Penny) Couple of starting facts from the past couple of years. 19 out of 30 opening series have resulted 1-1 after two games, only 3 out of 30 have went 3-0. The Brewers are the only team to have done it both years, and each year to go on and lose the third game. Can they take the second for the third time in a row? I'm banking yes. Pittsburgh (Santos) at Milwaukee (Capuano) - 2 pts @ 1.60 Unless Capuano fails to get some run support, he should have a solid chance of taking this one. Santos (IMO) is only there to cover some butt on the Rule 5. His ERA last year was shocking, his form this spring hasn't been any better. Every time he goes out it feels like he'll get romped. Not something you want in a #2. And I want to see Mil go 2-0 for the third year in a row. Florida (Mitre) at Houston (Pettitte) Ok, Mitre is a shade better than Santos, but just. He's a liability that can actually throw a few strikes. He does tend to get into trouble often and carries an era that looks silly next to Pettitte. Florida had a chance when Willis was on the mound but couldn't produce any sound chances for some runs. They will have just as hard of a time against Pettitte. With Willis out of the way, there shouldn't be a problem mounting a few runs against Mitre. So I'm playing a few bets on this one. 1pt - First run scored in : first inning @ 1.90 - Thinking Mitre will get into trouble early. 5pts - Florida (Mitre) at Houston (Pettitte) @ 1.43 2pts - Florida (Mitre) at Houston (Pettitte) -1.5 @ 1.88 My line of thinking is that if Houston's batting gets impotent and doesn't win by two runs then I'm pulling in .15. If they don't I'm pulling 3.91. I'm not a huge fan on giving runs away when I don't cover, can't see Houston losing, so the liability of 7pts is worth it. Ending bank - 249.2pts

[robby]

Re: MLB - 04 April Starting bank - 249.2pts NY Yankees (Mussina) at Oakland (Harden) over 8.5 @ 1.90 - 1pt Best game performance from both pitchers really can show an under here. I see value in the over though. After yesterday the Yankees have shown that they can handle the A's bullpen. Zito was out in the 2nd inning @ 7 runs. Yankees and the A's still went 'over' without those initial 7 runs. I see too much risk in the straight win as it depends on how Mussina plays. If he's on his game than the Yankees are a clear favorite. However, there isn't any guarantee on that one. However, the Yankees are pretty patient at the plate, which could see Harden on a good day going out in the 5th/6th on pitch count alone. If the bullpen plays like they did in game one, overs is a sinch. Read on mlb.com about Thomas's record against Mussina. How I see it, the only way that overs isn't going to happen is if both pitchers pitch very well and stay late enough for a closer to come in, Or the Yankees decide that they plan on using one days worth of RBI's to last a series. Floodgates NY Yankees (Mussina) at Oakland (Harden) over 8.5 @ 1.90 - above Atlanta (Smoltz) at LA Dodgers (Penny) over 7.5 @ 2.00 - see that bullpen? Smoltz won't pitch 8 1/2 innings, could get heavy in runs. Cleveland (Westbrook) at Chicago Sox (Garcia) over 8.5 @ 1.72 Cheers Steve, I'll run with it. 1pt @ 6.54 2-0 starts Florida (Mitre) at Houston (Pettitte) @ 1.43 Pittsburgh (Santos) at Milwaukee (Capuano) @ 1.60 Cleveland (Westbrook) at Chicago Sox (Garcia) @ 1.68 1pt @ 3.84 Risk Bet Boston (Wakefield) at Texas (Padilla) @ 1.98 - 2pts Ending bank - 244.2pts