NBA 4th

[TazaD]

Dallas -6.5 League: 37-53-3(Av. loss 8.4) away 5+ dog, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 4- fav. [sac] 2-7 (Av. loss 12.8) if opp is off a 10+ ats win as fav. The Kings are being over-rated due to an apparent turn around in form, but wins at Utah, Portland or GS are anything to get too excited about... ...and despite beating the Clips at home, they were out-rebounded 54-31!!...They relied on LAC turning it over 20 times for the win. Dallas has been challanged by Johnson to step up their D coming into the finals, and I expect them to have a big home win here. Clippers -4 This is a crazy line. Why are Denver so over-rated??..I don't know. In their last 3 away gamea at 'good' opposition they've lost by 14 @ Memphis, 11 @ Phoenix & 24 @ Dallas...Clips are as good as they come at home. I got put off the Clippers -4 v. Washington because I thought the line was fishy as hell...they won by 15 that day, and a similar result here won't surprise.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA 4th NYK +13 League: 1-8-1 (0-8-2 this no...av. win 4.8) 10+ fav off any ats win as away 10+ dog. [Wash] Basically, no matter how bad the opposition is (and the 'Knicks are pretty bad!), no team that were a 10+ dog only days ago should be favoured by this many. The Wizzards can score, but theyalso allow a tonne of points, so covering large numbers is tough for them. (They are 0-2 when favoured by 10+ this season). Marbury and Rose out, but they still shot 51% @ Philli last game...and now look like getting Richardson back today. Also Nate Robinson will be forced back to the bench after a 4-12 shooting performance last game. I don't expect Washington to lose this game, but just too many points on offer. NO @ Det under 184.5 This line has bene inflated by a couple of recent games...NO 120-113 @ Toronto, and a 107-102 win at home v. Memphis... ...and also Det 109-102 v. Phoenix and 112-105 v. Milwaukee... ...but, the NO/Tor game was a double OT...in their last 7 road games NO have scored 95 (v. Toronto in reg.), 86, 80, 94, 82, 81, 67! Before racing up and down with the Suns, Milwaukee got on a huge roll, shooting 51.9% and 57.9% 3's! (Redd 6/8)...the last 5 home games Detroit allowed 90, 79, 73, 84, 78. Detroit are 3-11 under this season when the total is 180-185, and with Rasheed (av. 15.5 ppg) out of this game, their scoring will suffer, as it will mean more time for McDyess (7.6 ppg) and Dale Davis, who just doesn't score at all! The last meeting (@ NO) was 96-86, with the teams shooting a combined 48.3% and 11/24 3's, with Rasheed hitting 15...and last years meeting in Det was 90-76.