MLB - Back both teams

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

This is something I thought about last year and unless my figures are flawed, could be a good source of profit. The strikerate will need to be exceptionally high as the returns are low yield but we'll run it and see how we go. The idea is to back both teams in the game. Madness you say, wellyes if we were to back them both straight. What we're going to do though is back the underdog to win straight and the fav to win on the handicap. More often or not, doing this you'll be able to get over evens on both bets. With America's renowned hatred of draws in their sports, this only leaves the fav's winning by 1 run as a losing bet. Example: Mon Night TB @ BAL TB to win - 11.16pts @ 2.1 BAL(-1.5) to win - 8.84pts @ 2.65 (Paddy Power) Total stake = 20pts Possible results: TB win - Returns: 23.44pts Profit: 3.44pts BAL win by 1 - Returns: 0 Profit: -20pts BAL win by 2+ - Returns: 23.43pts Profit: 3.43pts As you can see, with the right staking you can make the same profit from any result, barring the 1 run win by the fav. Now this could probably be done on a vast majority of matches but as you can see by the example above, 1 bad selection can easily wipe out 6 or 7 wins, so Im going to use selections that offer as high a return as possible , reducing the amount of wins needed to recover a loss. Ill also try and filter out games that potentially may be tight affairs. This hasnt been tested live, only in theory. As long as a good enough strikerate can be maintained though, we should see a nice slow profit build up.:hope Starting Bank will be 1000pts and bets will be made with a combined stake of 20pts. Any comments welcome, especially if anyone can see a huge flaw that I may have overseen.

[slapdash]

Re: MLB - Back both teams My first thought on seeing systems like this, where you place two different types of bet (call them Type A and Type B) is always: Expected profit = Expected profit from Type A + Expected profit from Type B. So if the system as a whole is going to be profitable, then at least one of the individual types of bet has to be profitable, and my second thought is "Which one?" Anyway, it's presumably not too difficult to get some statistics for how often the favourite wins by one run. I'd certainly try to find this before risking any cash on the system, as it will give you at least some idea of how much you need to win from each successful bet for the system to be profitable. By the way, good luck for a profitable season!