NBA 19th

[TazaD]

Cleveland v. Lakers over 191.5 League: 11-3 over (Av. total 198.4...av. score 208.4) home 4- fav, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 10+ fav, if total 190+. [Cavs] League: 13-5 over (Av. total 194.3...av. score 204.7) any away dog, 1 day off a 4- SU loss as away 4- dog, if total is 190+ and opp is off a 10- ats win. [LAL] First meeting of the season was 99-98 @ LA, and 4 of the last 5 meetings @ Cleveland have gone over this no...av. score 193.4. I think an under-the-weather Nets did us a favour by grinding out a win v. LA, and keeping this total lower than it should be. 5 of LA's road games before that were over this number. The Cavs have played 4 of their last 5 games away, and recent home games have been against solid defensive teams (Det, Sac, Chic) and Portland who can't score...but their last 3 against good scoring/poor defensive teams have been 205 v. Toronto, 196 v. Washington and 197 v. Orlando. I think this one hits the high 190's at least. Indi -5.5 League: 17-5 (Av. win 15.1) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home (-3 to +3), total 190+, if opp last lost ats as a dog. [indi] I posted not long ago how Boston perform against top line defensive teams. On the road v. the top 8 defensive teams they are 1-8 with an average loss of 16.3! Indi are 9-3 in their last 12 home games, and 11-3 as favs of 4-6.5. Dallas -1.5 League: 3-9 (Av. loss 5.8) home 4- dog, 1 day off a 4- SU win as home 4- fav. [NJ] Dallas have won the last 11 meetings over the Nets!...inc. 4/4 @ NJ and 2 wins this season. They've been 9-2 ats in those wins. New Jersey have had a pretty soft schedule, and haven't had a 'good' win in a long time, losing to Sac and Indi at home in their last 10. Dallas are better still. Washington -6 League: 13-5 (14-3-1 this no...av. win 13.5) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a 10+ ats loss as home (-3 to +3), if opp last won ats as a dog. [Wash] The Wizzards look to be in a good bonce back spot here against an inconsistant Bulls. Getting beaten by Dallas is not such bad form, and 3 out of 4 home wins before that shows they are playing well enough. Chicago have won just 2 of their last 6 on the road, and they were wins over very poor Atlanta and New York. Big losses at both Cleveland and Milwaukee suggest Washington will be too strong aswell. Sacramento -4 League: 3-12 (Av. loss 4.1) home 4- dog, 2 days off a 10- ats loss as away 5+ dog, if opp was last away. [Min] Minni are just 2-9 on 2 days rest v. teams on any rest. Quite simply 2 teams going in 2 different directions. The Kings have beaten a lot better teams than Minni lately, and I think they'll continue their good run here. Utah @ Memphis under 180 League: 3-9 under (1-11 under this no...av. total 175.5...av. score 172.8) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav, if total is 180 or less and opp is off any ats win. [Memphis] Memphis are 1-11 under as favs of 6-9.5, so they strangle teams with their tough D. The last 3 meetings in Memphis have gone under, av. just 163.3, inc. an 87-65 effort this year!! Utah shot 55.8% lsat game, and Memphis shot 56%, so both are due for a let-down here...in fact Memphis are 1-10 under (Av. 176.8) off a game when they both shot and allowed 50+%, so their focus quickly shifts back to defense.

[NW1970]

Re: NBA 19th Trying to halt a shabby run of form, but I have four to play today. Dal@NJ over 178.5 10/11 Bet365 Sac@Min under 196.5 1.92 Unibet Phi@GS under 197 1.85 Unibet Mia@NY under 209 10/11 Bet 365 Know all about Dallas' new defensive focus, but this could be a shoot out. Total too low for me, I have 187. Sacramento putting up numbers recently, but Minnesota is always good for an under these days. I have 186.5, so a full 10 pts discrepancy. Philly without AI is a good proposition for an under, though GS sometimes throw caution to the wind at home. A big total for Miami@NY, but NY are often capable of hitting a brick wall in their offense, especially if Shaq manages to stay on court, they will be up against a strong defense. Dal@NJ over 178.5 7 pts Sac@Min under 196.5 pts 12 pts Phi@GS under 197 10 pts Mia@NY under 209 7 pts Hoping for better luck today.