NBA 16th

[TazaD]

Detroit @ Toronto over 194 League: 12-2 over (Av. total 196.6...av. score 206.5) away 5+ fav, off any ats win as home 10+ fav, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [Det] 10-1 over (Av. total 199.9...av. score 210.5) if total 190+. In their last 7 as away 5+ favs, when they play a team who are away -> home with no rest, Detroit score 104.6 ppg. In Toronto's last 8 as home 5+ dogs when their opp has had 2 days rest, they are 7-1 over this no...av. 207.0 So, it's a great situation for some scoring for both teams. Toronto home games av. 206.0 as it is, and they would be just 4-17 under this number in their last 21 @ home! Detroit are showing some signs of tiredness, allowing 96+ in 5 of their last 6, and all 3 on the road. The last 4 meetings have all gone over this no...inc. 103-113 @ Toronto last season, and 117-84 & 113-106 both at Detroit this season. Orlando -3.5 League: 12-0 (Av. win 10.5) home 4- fav, any rest off any loss as an away dog, if opp is off a 20+ ats loss as any dog!! [Orl] (Team scores 109.5!!) or... 10-0 (Av. loss 10.9) home 4- fav, 1 day off any ats loss as away 5+ dog, if opp lost 10+ ats as any dog. [Orl] (Team scores 103.9) Take your pick really! All they show is that Utah are bad, and playing badly! Orlando have won their last 2 at home quite comfortably, and scored 100+ in both...Both trends suggest that they will score big, and the Magic are 18-3-1 at home when they score 100+! They are also 10-2 as favs of 6 or less, and 9-4 at home v. <.500 teams, so really, they should be able to account for a tired, poor Jazz team reasonably comfortably. New Jersey v. Portland under 182 League: 0-7 under (Av. score 173.0) home 10+ fav, off a 10+ ats win as away fav, if opp lost 15+ ats as a dog. [NJ] Small trend, but states the obvious (in this case anyway!)...NJ winning games with D, Portland just can't score!! In Portland's last 11 games on the road they have not topped 91, at an av. of 81.9!! At the same time, NJ haven't scored 100 in regualtion in their last 17 games! The last 4 meetings have all gone comfortably under this number, av'ing a staggering 156.75!! The fist meeting this season @ Portland was 88-83...Carter didn't play in that game, but still, they shot a combined 47%, 10/24 3's, 35/52 FT's and 27 fast break points!!...so it was hardly brick city. Portland are 10-21 under v. winning teams and 4-10 under as dogs sa 10-14, simply because they can't score. NJ are 4-10 under when the total is 180-185, so they play D when expected...and even tho this total is fairly low, it's just not low enough, imo! :ok

[TazaD]

Re: NBA 16th Phoenix -5 League: 42-58-2 (Av. loss 7.9) away 5+ dog, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav. [LAC] (3-16 last 19!) 8-17 (Av. loss 10.3) if opp last won ats as a 5+ fav. (0-6 since 2004) League: 30-22-2 (Av. win 11.2) home 5+ fav, no rest off a 10- ats win as away 5+ fav. [suns] 11-3 (12-2 this no...Av. win 16.6!!) if total 200+ Now, this line is a little scary, because it's at least 2 points low. I was expecting 7 at the least, but I'll take it on face value and say it's a gift rather than a trap. Phoenix are amazing as small favs, going 13-2 as -5.5 or less this season! The lack of rest is also no great worry as they are 6-1 with no rest v. teams with either 0 or 1 day rest themselves. Phoenix won the last meeting in LA 112-102...Magette and Radmanovic in the team now which may help their scoring, but not convinced it helps their D all that much! Phoenix are 25-9 at home for a reason...because they score more points than their opposition!...Sounds stupidly obvious, but every chance it happens here again. Clippers are being over-valued because they've gone 7-2 in their last 8, but just 2-1 on the road...2 wins against struggling teams Chiago and Milwaukee, and a loss to Utah! Really like the Suns to get it done again and cover a small h'cap.