cavello Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 This week with little real horse racing I have spend time producing a linear regression trendline solution to relate Rateform* ratings to probability of results. Having eventually entered the data I produced a linear regression equation solution with an R squared figure of over 0.97(trend line correlates very well). Having produced this and with the assistance of Betdevil profiling analysis tool I can isolate teams who have odds that are higher then their Rateform figures indicated based on the trendline. Initially I will focus on home games. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> For those interested in the statistical data the trendlines equations are produced below: HOME (y) = 0.0269x +42.5 with R2 = 0.973 AWAY (y)= -0.0229x + 29.289 with R2 = 0.979 I will post up all teams that meet the above-mentioned requirements later. * Rateform ratings are a spin off of the ELO rating system to assess the ability of chess players and were devised by the Physicist Dr Elo. Later soccer analysts have adapted them in an attempt to rank the ability of soccer teams. In the Ratefrom system more points are obtained by beating stronger teams and less points lost by losing to stronger teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Rateform And Value Odds What are y and x? I take it one is odds and one is rating? Have you tried fitting any other curves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Rateform And Value Odds X is the rating and Y probability. Therefore 1/y= odds If you saw the graph it is pretty obvious that trying to fit a polynomial equation trendline would be a pointless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Rateform And Value Odds This weekend Rateform "value". BRISTOL CITY 2.52 **** LOST SWINDON 2.72 N/A DUNDEE 2.35 LOST ROMA 2.72 CHIEVO 2.40 GETAFE 2.38 BARNSLY 2.23 LOST INVERNESS 2.11 LOST PRESTON 1.88 **** N/A LIVORNO 1.83 SEVILLA 1.81 LIVERPOOL 1.60 **** LOST WATFORD 1.60 **** LOST BAYERN MUNICH 1.65 LOST **** Also indicated to be value the Times Predictor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Rateform And Value Odds Are these odds available from bookies or are these target figures to achieve ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Rateform And Value Odds Are available but may include exchanges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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