rooster Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Ive always admired people who have a good handle on handicap races. Ive always been a bit scared of them. I never did like long losing runs :$ This thread is an effort to overcome the fear. I have 2 approaches that I'll put up. Sometimes that will give the same horse in one race or different horses in the race. Method 1 will generally hasve fewer selections but I hope will be more profitable. Method 2 will have more selections but probably a lower profit. I dont care once theres a profit :lol Here goes. Face the fear man face the fear! METHOD 1 200 WETHERBY BALMORAL QUEEN 250 FOLKSTONE STOPWATCH 320 FOLKSTONE KILTY STORM 355 FOLKSTONE KAPPELHOFF 500 FOLKSTONE JOLI CLASSICAL METHOD 2 320 FOLKSTONE KILTY STORM 340 WETHERBY ROSETOWN 415 WETHERBY SILVER SEEKER 500 FOLKSTONE BEFORE THE MAST Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 1, 2006 Author Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Good start. No losses. Both meetings abandoned :$ Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave E Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Good start. No losses. Both meetings abandoned :$ Rooster :rollin superb :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 1, 2006 Author Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Thursday 2 March METHOD 1 200 TAUNTON GARHOUD 230 TAUNTON IT'S MY PARTY 320 LUDLOW WELSH DANE 340 LINGFIELD NEWNHAM 350 LUDLOW SAAFEND ROCKET 500 TAUNTON LETS TRY AGAIN METHOD 2 230 TAUNTON ADECCO 320 LUDLOW CHICKAPEAKRAY 410 LINGFIELD LOWESTOFT PLAYBOY 440 LINGFIELD ORCHARD SUPREME Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 2, 2006 Author Share Posted March 2, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Results for Thursday 2 March METHOD 1 200 TAUNTON GARHOUD ABANDONED 230 TAUNTON IT'S MY PARTY ABANDONED 320 LUDLOW WELSH DANE ABANDONED 340 LINGFIELD NEWNHAM LOST 5/1 350 LUDLOW SAAFEND ROCKET ABANDONED 500 TAUNTON LETS TRY AGAIN ABANDONED METHOD 2 230 TAUNTON ADECCO ABANDONED 320 LUDLOW CHICKAPEAKRAY ABANDONED 410 LINGFIELD LOWESTOFT PLAYBOY L 5/2 440 LINGFIELD ORCHARD SUPREME W 2/1 METHOD 1: -1.00 METHOD 2: +1.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 2, 2006 Author Share Posted March 2, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Friday 3 March Im changing Method 2 slightly. Lets see what happens. METHOD 1 (1 POINT WIN) 130 NEWBURY PANZER 220 WOLVES PARKVIEW LOVE 305 NEWBURY GLENGARRA 435 WOLVES BRIDGEWATER BOYS METHOD 2 (1 POINT WIN. HALF POINT EACH WAY IF 10/1 OR MORE) 130 NEWBURY BEFORE TIME 220 WOLVES LATIF 305 NEWBURY ROMANY DREAM 435 WOLVES WESTERN ROOTS Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Results for Friday 3 March METHOD 1 (1 POINT WIN) 130 NEWBURY PANZER L 15/2 220 WOLVES PARKVIEW LOVE L 10/1 305 NEWBURY GLENGARRA L 11/2 435 WOLVES BRIDGEWATER BOYS L 7/1 METHOD 2 (1 POINT WIN. HALF POINT EACH WAY IF 10/1 OR MORE) 130 NEWBURY BEFORE TIME NON RUNNER 220 WOLVES LATIF 3RD 10/3 305 NEWBURY ROMANY DREAM L 20/1 435 WOLVES WESTERN ROOTS L 9/1 METHOD 1: -5.00 METHOD 2: -2.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Saturday 4 March Method 1 300 LINGFIELD GARSTANG 335 HAYDOCK NEVADA RED 345 NEWBURY ANTICIPATING 435 LINGFIELD HELLO ROBERTO 120 LINGFIELD SUGITANI Method 2 300 LINGFIELD CORRECT TIME 335 HAYDOCK BUNKUM 345 NEWBURY TOKALA 435 LINGFIELD TIMES REVIEW 120 LINGFIELD POLISH POWER Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 5, 2006 Author Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Results for Saturday 4 March Method 1 120 LINGFIELD SUGITANI 2ND 11/2 300 LINGFIELD GARSTANG W 9/4 335 HAYDOCK NEVADA RED ABANDONED 345 NEWBURY ANTICIPATING 3RD 8/1 435 LINGFIELD HELLO ROBERTO L 7/1 Method 2 120 LINGFIELD POLISH POWER W 4/1 300 LINGFIELD CORRECT TIME 3RD 9/2 335 HAYDOCK BUNKUM ABANDONED 345 NEWBURY TOKALA L 6/1 435 LINGFIELD TIMES REVIEW 2ND 9/1 METHOD 1: -5.75 METHOD 2: -1.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 5, 2006 Author Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Sunday 5 March No races today Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: My Handicaps This is something i will be keeping an eye on as their are that many variables to take into account. It could be age,distance,going, finishing pos LTO,or days since last run and even the SPs.The one stat that seems to stay the same is 70% of the winners come from the 1st 5 in the betting. I did a small study this morn with handicaps that only ran 3 to 5 days ago and the 1st 5 in the betting and showed a ROI of 109% and a 20%s/rate. If you had used the 5,6,7,and 8th in the betting and using races with 8 runers or more and races of 1m5f or less you would have s/rate of 12% but a ROI OF 128% since 1997 but with long losing runs but it's trying to find the right balance what ever your ideas are. I'am sure doing each age group individualy with diff stats could give you a better chance of finding something that works long term and a good s/rate and ROI. This was only a quick look at TURF ONLY HANDICAPS and could differ on the AW. When time permits will do an in depth study and let you know my findings as I already have a few on the subject that do well but do not through up many horses. THE % MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 6, 2006 Author Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: My Handicaps %Man youre a mind of information. Its great getting so much great advice and suggestions from experienced people on here. Im a total novice at the handicap races so any pointers are good. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 6, 2006 Author Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Monday 6 March METHOD 1 450 WOLVES WEBBSWOOD LAD 500 LINGFIELD GARSTANG 520 WOLVES MAGICAL MUSIC 530 LINGFIELD DANZARE METHOD 2 450 WOLVES SAND REPEAL 500 LINGFIELD MINE THE BALANCE 520 WOLVES MONTE MAYOR JUNIOR 530 LINGFIELD ARDEA BRAVE Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Hi rooster Just had a quick look at 2yr old Handicap FAVS and I know you use A Massey's web site for some of your reaserch and this is something that may be of interest if you were looking for 2yr old HANDICAPS . If you open up the fate of FAVS section and use the custom report and just tick fav box not jts and 2yr olds only in handicaps from 1997 then open up the 2000 box and tick the reports box as well to open next page. After you scroll down the page you should come up with a loss of 9000+ and at first glance this would be very off putting. Then keep scrolling to you come to the jockeys section and look how the top jocks perform and you will see some very good stats for them and also look at the trainers to and some of them outperform the rest. In my eyes if you look out for these jockeys when riding the fav you must have a good chance of winning. Also the other thing i noticed which was not expected was the horses that won who ran 6th or 7th LTO. As i said before you have to look at every aspect as just a quick look at the intial p/loss may not always be what it seems. I do hope this may help you when assessing 2yr old FAVS or even laying them and I will have a look at the 3yr olds next and see if we can come up with something interesting for you. It's always a pleasure to help and if I can help in any way in the future please ask. THE % MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 6, 2006 Author Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Results for Monday 6 March METHOD 1 450 WOLVES WEBBSWOOD LAD L 11/2 500 LINGFIELD GARSTANG W 15/8F 520 WOLVES MAGICAL MUSIC W 5/1 530 LINGFIELD DANZARE L 33/1 METHOD 2 450 WOLVES SAND REPEAL L 4/1 500 LINGFIELD MINE THE BALANCE 2ND 5/2 520 WOLVES MONTE MAYOR JUNIOR L 7/1 530 LINGFIELD ARDEA BRAVE L 14/1 METHOD 1: -0.87 METHOD 2: -5.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 6, 2006 Author Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Once again thank you %man. Ill have a look at Maseys site for that information. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Tuesday 7 March METHOD 1 310 SOUTHWELL DOCTOR DENNIS 440 SOUTHWELL ALFONSO 450 EXETER TORA BORA METHOD 2 310 SOUTHWELL SHADOW JUMPER 440 SOUTHWELL KINGSMAITE 450 EXETER IL'ATHOU Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: My Handicaps Results for Tuesday 7 March METHOD 1 310 SOUTHWELL DOCTOR DENNIS 2ND 6/1 440 SOUTHWELL ALFONSO L 11/8F 450 EXETER TORA BORA PU 2/1 METHOD 2 310 SOUTHWELL SHADOW JUMPER L 11/2 440 SOUTHWELL KINGSMAITE L 14/1 450 EXETER IL'ATHOU 2ND 7/2 METHOD 1: -3.87 METHOD 2: -8.00 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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