NBA 1st March

[TazaD]

Sacramento +3.5 League: 19-9-1 (Av. WIN 1.9) away 4-dog, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 10+ fav. [sac] 9-1-1 (Av. WIN 8.6) if opp was last a dog. The Kings are a bit scary to take on the road lately, but Cleveland just aren't playing that well. In their last 7 home games they have lost to Detroit (understandable)...but GS, Philli and beat Milwaukee by just 3... ...and in their last 9 overall they have beaten Boston, Orlando and SA who were playing with no rest. Sacramento have won 4 of their last 5 games @ Cleveland, inc. a big 19 point win last season as small dogs.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA 1st March Indi +3.5 (2.55 ML) League: 18-9 (Av. WIN 2.2) away 4- dog, 2+ days rest off an upset SU win as a 5+ dog. [indi] (4-0 SU season) 10-2 (Av. WIN 10.3!) if total is 190+. Although Washington are 13-2 SU in their last 15 home games, they have had a very soft schedule, as just 3 of those 15 games were against winning teams! In fact they have played just 9 home games all season against >.500 teams, and gone a poor 2-7 ats. One of the games was a 84-79 win over Indi recently, but it was Peja's first game for the Pacers and they shot just 35.5% to 47.1%! Indi are 9-1-2 in their last 12 overall, and just belted NJ on the road, and kept it close with Detroit in the other road game in that span. I think the line is based more on Indi's overall road results rather than their current form. Golden State -4 League: 4-11 (Av. loss 6.9) away 4- dog, no rest off any ats loss as a dog, if opp is off an upset SU loss. [Orl] The line has dropped significantly on the news of Richardson being unlikely to play with an injured ankle...but now it has gone too far. WHile he is a quality player, GS are 5-0 ats in games where he has been either out or questionable this season, so there has been big over-reactions to the line when he is out. Orlando have lost 14 of their last 16, and all 9 of their last 9 on the road, with an av. loss of 8.3. I expect the Warriors to get the job done tonight, even without Richardson and Davis.