sbi Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Hi all Here's details of a simple filter i sometimes use to check whether a selection is decent value. my idea is for people to post their 1X2 selections after categorising them into those which pass the filter and those which fail. It would be interesting to see if the passes outperform the fails. here's the filter: Odds must be greater than: (number of matches home team has played at home + no. away has played away) divided by (number of home team results equal to prediction + no. away results equal to prediction) example: birmingham v sunderland 25/2/05 prediction: home win Birmingham have played 12 matches at home this season, Sunderland 12 away. Bham have won 3 at home, Sunderland lost 10 away. (12 + 12) / (3 + 10) = 24 / 13 = 1.85 So, if birmingham are priced < 1.85 the selection would fail. if the price is equal, the bet is ignored. price > 1.85 is a pass. If anyone would like to post their passes and fails for the weekend, I'll tot up the results shortly after (will put one point on each and see if the passes would have done better than the fails). I'll ignore any duplicate matches. if you're using an exchange please adjust odds according to the standard commission. thanks for your help, hopefully this will prove to be a useful filter for people to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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