DC Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Nice of Adrain to put up the ratings and equally nice of him to give us BOTH flat meetings! :nana Lingfield 2.00 Lay fav barr 2,1,5,7,3,9 2.30 Lay fav IF IT IS 6,7,or 8 3.00 Lay fav barr 2,4,5,1,9 3.30 Lay fav IF IT IS 8 or 5 ** 8 runners ** 4.00 no lay 4.30 Lay fav barr 1,4,2,7,10,8 5.00 Lay fav barr 3,5,7,8,4,9,12 5.30 Lay fav barr 7,11,5,1,12,4 Woves 1.50 Lay fav barr 3,7,2,5,6,8,10,13 2.20 Lay fav barr 7,10,1,8,12,5 2.50 Lay fav barr 2,4,11,10,6,5,12 3.20 Lay fav barr 1,8,4,11,9,2,10,12,5 3.50 Lay fav barr 1,4,3,2 4.20 Lay fav barr 3,11,4,8,5,9 4.50 Lay fav barr 8,3,6,10,2,1 5.20 Lay fav barr 4,5,2,8,12,1,10 Think that's it. Watch out for the werid layout in the 3.20 and 3.50, the ratings are not in rank order ???!! DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Think that's it. Watch out for the werid layout in the 3.20 and 3.50, the ratings are not in rank order ???!! Seems fine now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Mistake in the 3.30 only lay if number 8 is favourite - sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Danny, in the 3:20 you missed out no.3. Its 3rd rated so cant be laid either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Bad day! 2.00 Taxman unplaced @ 4.40 :D 2.30 Piano Player won @ 2.72 :( 3.30 Jebel Ali went off 7/2jf but I didn't lay it - lost :( 5.30 Aggravation won @ 3.20 :( 2.20 Sounds Simla went off 4/1jf but I didn't lay it - lost :( 3.50 Grafton went off 9/2jf but I didn't lay it - lost :( 4.50 Young Mick won @ 4.30 :( Won 9.50, lost 72.20 and should've won back 28.50 but they weren't favourite at lunch time Total loss on the day 62.70 Starting bank 300 Current bank 284.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Thats the trouble Danny with FAVS sometimes you can never be sure until the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Tuesday Southwell 1.40 Lay Fav barr 4,3,12 2,11,6 2.10 Lay Fav barr 8,3,7 9,10,6,12 2.40 No Lay - fewer than 8 runners 3.10 Lay fav barr 4,1,2 14,12,13,10,6 3.40 Lay fav barr 3,2,1 6,5,7 4.10 Lay fav barr 8,2,6 4,7 (8 runners) 4.40 Lay fav barr 3,6,4 5,8,11,9,12 5.10 Lay fav barr 10,4,3 6,7,11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... With any 'system' I always like to analise available data first. This is available from AM's website and I have downloaded the 'Flat' & 'National Hunt' data (10,238 Flat Races & 7,471 NH Races) to the following rules: 1. Selection must be favourite. 2. Cannot be in the top 3 of Massey's ratings (incl joint 3rd). 3. Race must contain 8 or more runners. 4. Cannot have run within 5 days. 5. Cannot be above 8-1 SP (extremely rare). 6. Cannot be making it's debut. I have then applied a 'Staking Plan' to the data. The one I've used is "£5 or 2% of Pot, whichever is the greater". You may have a 'favourite Plan', but for the purpose of this exercise the one I've used is the one that constantly returned reasonable profits ..... and it's my ball, so there.:nana The following are the 'profits/losses' by year: YearFlatNH1997£657£9041998£772-£5581999£574-£1502000£507-£1962001£7,789-£5152002£494£5872003£12,459-£3,0512004£3,098-£1,4972005£452£356 As expected the National Hunt races are the ones to avoid on this 'system' as they regularly return a loss. Although the Flat races constantly return a profit, there are a few good years and more than a few 'bad' years. I say 'bad' years because unless you have a huge pot, and plenty of nerve:hope , and are able to make at least £100 stakes, the work involved for the 'small' returns in the 'bad' years does not make the effort cost effective.;) I estimate that you need to be making £200 stakes:cryin the 'bad' years to 'earn a living' from the system.:( If there was a system that showed consistent returns, rather than the erratic returns as shown above, then I would be far more interested in that system. I suppose that what the above shows, that even with all the data available as at AM's site, there isn't a 'Eureka' system that you could follow without giving yourself an ulcer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Tuesdays results 1.40 El Potro unplaced @ 5.3 +9.5 :) 2.10 No lay 2.40 No lay 3.10 No lay 3.40 No lay 4.10 No lay 4.40 No lay 5.10 Joint favourites, both no lays Total profit +9.50 today Starting bank 300points Current bank 294.30points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Had no time to get the selections up today guys and won't be able to before racing starts. Apologies. You all know the formula anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... No worries Danny. All of Masseys ratings were jumps today anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Results for March to date It hasnt been a promising start to the month of March for the raw selections. There have been 49 qualifying lays and currently they're showing a minor loss of 0.95 points. I'll update at the end of the week. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 19, 2006 Author Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Results for March to date A balance of -0.95 points at the end of last week has turned around with the current balance being +5.70 points for the month so far. That's from a total of 97 lays so far. Some patterns seem to be emerging which I may add as filters for next month. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 19, 2006 Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Hey Rooster, thanks for bringing this to my attention again. As you may have gathered I'm not posting up all the lays, but will keep a check on things periodically... With the filters I added results show as follows for March: Bets 27, 6 favourites won and a small profit of 4.20 points Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted March 20, 2006 Author Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Thanks for that Danny. Small as the profits may be this month they are profits :) Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 16, 2006 Share Posted July 16, 2006 Re: I can't pick a winner so ...... Interestingly enough using the following rules since the first March 2006: 1. Selection must be favourite 2. Cannot be in the top 3 of Massey's ratings (incl joint 3rd) 3. Race must contain 8 or more runners 4. Cannot have run within 5 days 5. Cannot be above 8-1 SP (extremely rare) 6. *NEW RULE* Cannot be making it's debut - this will increase profits further. Would've shown a loss of over 21pts around 5% loss ROI.:eyes Just goes to show, what's happened in the past may not continue to work in the future. . . Pervesly, I am currently working on another laying system based on Massey's ratings which doesn't rely on the favourite being layed, it can be any horse but the maximum price is 9-2 SP. It seems much more consistent. It is showing a profit of +17% over 9 years (1740 pts profit) and a profit of 57pts so far this year - doesn't sound much but because you are laying to smaller odds (my other system will tackle horses at much bigger prices i.e 14-1) you can afford to increase stakes by 2 or even 3 times. I will continue to test it and perhaps show some more findings at a later date. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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