NBA 15th

[TazaD]

Milwaukee +6.5 League: 3-11-2 (3-14 this no...av. LOSS 2.8) any home fav, 2 days off a 10- ats win as home 5+ dog. [indi] League: 25-14 (Av. loss 5.4) away 5+ dog, no rest off a 10+ ats win as home 5+ fav. [Mil] 9-2 (Av. loss 3.5) if opp was last a dog. It's all about the D atm for Milwaukee...they've allowd just 87.9 ppg in their last 10. I know Indi have been on a good home run lately, but the Bucks have lost just 1 of their last 7 on the road by more than 6, and that was @ NJ without Simmons (who played a handy 22 minutes today for 15 points.) Miami @ Orlando over 194 League: 12-5-1 (Av. total 198.6...av. score 209.7) away 5+ fav, no rest off a 10- ats win as home 10+ fav. [Mia] 11-2-1 (13-1 over this no...av. total 202.3...av. score 218.5!) if total is 190+. Orlando are 10-3 over when the total is on the 190's and Miami is 15-6 over v. <.500 teams. They combined for 200 today, and Orlando will score more at home...esp. now Hill is back playing. NJ @ Charlotte under 189 League: 28 under (Av. total 189.4...av. score 183.9) away 5+ fav, no rest off a 10- ats loss as away 5+ dog. [NJ] Both meeting this season have gone under this number...In fact all 6 meetings in the Bobcats' history have gone under this number, with the highest being 186. 5 of NJ's last 6 road games have gone under this number (Av. 175.6), and their last 4 overall have av'd just 166!! I expect the Nets to control this game and grind it out from the half court. Seattle @ Minni under 199 League: 14-33-1 under (Av. total 198.6...av. score 191.3) home 5+ fav,1 day off a 4- SU loss as a home 5+ fav, if total 190+. [Min] 6-20 under (Av. score 189.4) if it was a 10- ats loss. 3-13 under (Av. score 189.5) if opp was last a dog. League: 3-8 under (Av. total 200.0...av. score 191.8) away 5+ dog, no rest off a 10+ ats loss as away 5+ dog, total 190+, if opp is off an upset loss. As you can see, the total is just too high for this game. Minni are 2-24 under this total at home all season!...0-11 in their last 11. ** They have av'd just 90.2 ppg since the trade, but still allow 89.9 ppg @ 42.9% at home. The last game v. Torotno, the teams combined for 52.5% shooting, 13-24 3's and the game was still just 94-98. ** Admittedly, one of the games that has topped 200 @ Minni this season was a 108-95 win v. Seattle...but in thatgame Minni shot 58.1%, and Szerbiak went 12-18 for 30 points. Things have certainly slowed down for the 'Wolves since then! Phoenix -2.5 League: 1-11 (0-12 SU...Av. loss 7.3) home 4- dog, off any OT as away (+3 to -3) [Denver[ League: 9-2 (11-0 SU...av. win 10.1) any away fav, off a 10- ats loss as home 5+ av, if total is 210+. Denver won the first meeting at home this season in triple OT!...in a game where Phoenix had only 7 players on the court! But before that the Suns had won their last 5 meetings, inc. 2 @ Denver. The Denver defense has been horrible lately, allowing 100+ in 8 of their last 9 @ 107.7 ppg, and just 2 wins in those 9 games against a tired Dallas (with no rest) and a crappy Seattle (in OT :wall ) Phoenix are 6-1 as favs of 3 or less.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA 15th Toronto -3 League: 2-8 (Av. loss 9.0) home 4- dog off a 10+ ats loss as an away 10+ dog, if toal 190+. This tels me what I already know...New York's defense is terrible! Toronto have won 6 of their last 8, with OT losses to both SA and the Clippers who are both quality teams. They are 13-1 away v. losing teams this season, and although rarely favs, they do the business when they are, going 6-1 so far. New York have now lost 16 of their last 17, inc. 24 and 26 points beltings @ Toronto. The Raptors won in NY last season by 12 as 6 point 'dogs, so 3 looks very easy to overcome here.