Djordje Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Back to the old system, which worked much better than v1.1 No asian handicaps, no double chances, H D A only. Decided to start new thread only because the old one was for English Championship only and that was experimental thread. This estimations system calculates probabilities of all three outcomes (home win, draw, away win). The criterion for the bet is value between 1.05 and 1.20 (values higher than 1.20 won't be observed as it point to unrealistic estimations of percentage). Calculations include: 1. Overall record. 2. Home/Away record. 3. Recent Overall form (last 8). 4. Recent Home/Away form (last 5). 5. Last 10 meetings if available (irrelevant when happened). 6. Last 5 corresponding meetings. Key formulas: units_staked=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) value=perc*odds Starting bank is 1000$, units are 1-10 with one decimal place, max bet equals 5% of bankroll. All bets are my real bets btw. ;) So let's try to repair damage made by the 'advanced' version of this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 05.02.2006. #1 Chelsea v Liverpool Liverpool @4.50 4.1/10 (20.5 $) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations Good luck with this Djordje, hope it brings the rewards it deserves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations .... wise move my friend, I too thought that the old method was likely to net more winners in the long run! Good luck Djordje!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations .... btw brave call taking the Reds, will be tight I think but would go for the 1X.Also liked the old way of displaying your odds/bets etc Djordje, much easier to follow.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations thanks guys :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 05.02.2006. #1 Chelsea v Liverpool Liverpool @4.50 -4.1/10 (-20.5 $) Bet365 start bank [€]1000.00stake [€]20.50profit [€]-20.50balance [€]979.50yield [%]-100.00bets1winners0average odds4.50strike rate0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations #2 Sheffield United v Watford Watford @4.33 10.0/10 (48.98 $) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations ... I still find myself opposing your selection Djordje, but there again I suppose this is where the value comes in.Good luck though!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations ... I still find myself opposing your selection Djordje, but there again I suppose this is where the value comes in.Good luck though!;) Cheers merlin few months ago I was on Norwich at Sheffield Utd @4.50 and Norwich won 3-1 in that match if I rememebr well. 4.33 for Watford looks like good deal according to that. And according to my good old system as well ;) Searching for value is dangerous job, but I'll stick with it anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations ..... my money is on the 1X and I'm hoping that lightning does not strike twice in the same place Djordje.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations I hope you haven't big money on that Derek ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations .... and there is me with egg all over my face:\ , but well done on your win here Djordje,thoroughly deserved!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations #2 Sheffield United v Watford Watford @4.33 +43.30 (+163.09$) Bet365 start bank [$]1000.00stake [$]69.48profit [$]142.59balance [$]1142.59yield [%]205.23bets2winners1average odds4.42strike rate0.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations thanks merlin for you interest and contribution :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Value Estimations Great pick Djordje.:clap Well done buddy, hope theres plenty more where that came from.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations #3 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe @6.00 4.6/10 (26.28$) Ladbrokes #4 Bury v Rushden Rushden @3.50 7.3/10 (41.70$) Bet365 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations back in fcking business now eh Djordje :cow :cow :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations back in fcking business now eh Djordje :cow :cow :cow nah, I like big odds :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations #3 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe @6.00 -4.6/10 (-26.28$) Ladbrokes #4 Bury v Rushden Rushden @3.50 -7.3/10 (-41.70$) Bet365 :hope start bank [$]1000.00stake [$]137.46profit [$]74.60balance [$]1074.60yield [%]54.27bets4winners1average odds4.58strike rate0.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations I wasn't confident about your Scunthorpe selection Djordje but your Rushden selection had every chance in a tight encounter, unlucky mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Value Estimations me neither, David, but had to go for them (Scunthorpe), dont ask me why :(:\:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 8, 2006 Author Share Posted February 8, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 10.02.2006. #5 Hartlepool vs Chesterfield Draw @3.25 7.8/10 (41.91$) Bet365 #6 Burton vs Exeter Exeter @2.50 7.3/10 (39.22$) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 11.02.2006. #7 Aston Villa vs Newcastle Newcastle @3.75 4.6/10 (24.72$) Ladbrokes #8 Wigan vs Liverpool Wigan @3.75 10.0/10 (53.73$) Bet365 One home win for a change ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 11.02.2006. #9 Brighton v Leicester Draw @3.25 2.6/10 (13.97$) Bet365 #10 Ipswich v Burnley Draw @3.25 6.6/10 (35.46$) Bet365 #11 QPR v Milwall Draw @3.25 2.8/10 (15.04$) Bet365 #12 Sheff Wed v C Palace Palace @2.35 8.8/10 (47.28$) Centrebet #13 Watford v Coventry Coventry @4.50 3.3/10 (17.73$) VC #14 Wolves v Crewe Crewe @6.50 3.6/10 (19.34$) Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 10.02.2006. #5 Hartlepool vs Chesterfield Draw @3.25 -7.8/10 (-41.91$) Bet365 #6 Burton vs Exeter Exeter @2.50 -7.3/10 (-39.22$) Bet365 Losses will be updated after tomorrow games. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 Re: Value Estimations 11.02.2006. #15 Huddersfield v Colchester Colchester @2.75 6.5/10 (34.92$) Bet365 #16 Bury v Oxford Oxford @2.87 6.9/10 (37.07$) Bet365 #17 Chelthenham v Northampton Draw @3.25 5.7/10 (30.63$) #18 Darlington v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers @3.25 7.5/10 (40.30$) Bet365 #19 Macclesfield v Wrexham Wrexham @3.00 4.9/10 (26.33$) Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 11, 2006 Author Share Posted February 11, 2006 Re: Value Estimations start bank [$]1000.00stake [$]548.68profit [$]-243.93balance [$]756.07yield [%]-44.46bets17winners2average odds3.76strike rate0.12 I think I need fcuking break with this shite :wall :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Value Estimations ... no posting here Djordje since the 11th, what is happening, not chucked it in I hope.Come on fella let's get going again, you cannot put things right if you don't dabble!:rollin What I have spotted is that there appears to be a lot more selections than there ever was before, maybe that's where the weakness lies.Have you thought about 'trimming' them down a little and just going for what you feel are the stronger selections?Look forward to your restart young un!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted February 14, 2006 Author Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Value Estimations Ey, thanks merlin The key weakness is that I took only games I had feeling for. The value is always hiding, and while I was taking all the games from Championship, results were much better. This time I tried to take games I thought have reasonable chances to come. I'll be back with this in a while :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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