Value Estimations

[Djordje]

Back to the old system, which worked much better than v1.1 No asian handicaps, no double chances, H D A only. Decided to start new thread only because the old one was for English Championship only and that was experimental thread.

This estimations system calculates probabilities of all three outcomes (home win, draw, away win). The criterion for the bet is value between 1.05 and 1.20 (values higher than 1.20 won't be observed as it point to unrealistic estimations of percentage). Calculations include: 1. Overall record. 2. Home/Away record. 3. Recent Overall form (last 8). 4. Recent Home/Away form (last 5). 5. Last 10 meetings if available (irrelevant when happened). 6. Last 5 corresponding meetings. Key formulas: units_staked=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) value=perc*odds Starting bank is 1000$, units are 1-10 with one decimal place, max bet equals 5% of bankroll.

All bets are my real bets btw. ;) So let's try to repair damage made by the 'advanced' version of this system.

[Djordje]

Re: Value Estimations 05.02.2006. #1 Chelsea v Liverpool Liverpool @4.50 4.1/10 (20.5 $) Bet365