jgadefelth Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 usually the most think this is a bad ideer and i usually agree. But what about backing the favorite at over or under 2.5 goals. There are only 2 alternative outcomes over or under know draw that can mess things up and also the odds is usually quite generous. Any thouts about this? Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite usually the most think this is a bad ideer and i usually agree. But what about backing the favorite at over or under 2.5 goals. There are only 2 alternative outcomes over or under know draw that can mess things up and also the odds is usually quite generous. Any thouts about this? Best Regards John You don't back one team at over/under, you back the game itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite yes thats true i typed it whrong, what do you think about the strategy? Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite You can't expect to make a sustainable profit from just backing favourites for the sake of it. All you will achieve is a smaller loss than backing the non-favourites. However, if you look at very short odds favourites (1.2 or less) it is possible to make a small profit (thought to be due to a "phenomenon" called the favourite-longshot bias). Check out DataPunter's Hot favourites thread in S+S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite yes thats true i typed it whrong, what do you think about the strategy? Best Regards John Backing the over/under according to which one the bookies say is the favourite? It shouldn't work, for the reasons that sgt.sunshine explained. However you could backtest (i.e. get a list of historical odds and results and work it out) to see how much you would have lost/won by doing it over the past few seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite ok i thout it will worked with the over and under 2.5 option because that it is only 2 options and good odds even on the favorite 1.70. menaing i will in the long run if i win 2 out of 3 times. Whit 1.2 in odds i have to win 6 of 7 mathes or somthing like that. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite paul03 do you know where i can find i list of odds? also if we do a system and take the france league 1 and take all the matches there for under 2.5. will perhaps the norway league shall have an over 2.5 thats what i have heard anyway. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: backing favortite ok i thout it will worked with the over and under 2.5 option because that it is only 2 options and good odds even on the favorite 1.70. menaing i will in the long run if i win 2 out of 3 times. Whit 1.2 in odds i have to win 6 of 7 mathes or somthing like that. Best Regards John 'Good odds' is a relative term. It all depends on how likely any particular outcome is, having to win 2/3 is no good if you only win 3/5. www.footballdata.co.uk has an exhaustive list of odds for a number of leagues going back a number of years, thats always a good starting point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted February 4, 2006 Author Share Posted February 4, 2006 Re: backing favortite Paul03 it looks like you have to be a paing member to get access to that data? Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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