strategy vs. non-strategy

[Clotty]

Previously football betting has just been a hobby using fantasy money. Without using a strategy I've been surprisingly successful - this weekend for example I won fantasy money on Ghana to win, Cameroon to win, Seville to win, Liverpool to win (losing on my Sunderland to win prediction only). This betting, however, has been purely instinctive. What I think will earn me money. However, I've seen here people developing strategies and even one made by some Joe-something-or-other which is on sale for a tenner (I think it's a tenner anyway). I'm open to using a strategy as I realise my style is dangerous and could be catastrophic if I hit a bad run, but what are the general advantages of using a proper strategy and what have been the most successful ones that you'd recommend me looking into? Useful articles for an absolute beginner with real money on betting in general would also be nice if any good ones are out there.

[Djordje]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Hi Clotty and :welcome to PL! The general advantage of betting strategy or system is the discipline if and money managament if you ask me. I cant recommend any particular strategy though as it isn't anything exact to be 100% sucessful or 100% wrong, but I'm sure you'll find something interesting here which could inspire you to find you own ;) For the begining you should read few articles at http://www.sports-punter.com/index.php?p=pages/strategies Cheers and good luck with you real betting :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy I tend to only use strategies when I can't find winners for love or money. The law of averages says any half-decent system will find winners. It's then about having a staking plan that will profit longterm and having deep enough pockets should the worst happen.

[AJ]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy For me, moving from fun gambling to serious attempt to make money, the most important change in my thinking was record keeping. Keep a written record of every bet you make, that way you'll know if you are making a profit or loss in the long term. There have been a few excel files posted on here which are great for this

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy

I tend to only use strategies when I can't find winners for love or money. The law of averages says any half-decent system will find winners. It's then about having a staking plan that will profit longterm and having deep enough pockets should the worst happen.

:loon Are you sure about this? If this were true the bookies would be out of business. Not to mention your obvious contradiction: "I tend to only use strategies when I can't find winners .." followed by "The law of averages says any half-decent system will find winners". Here's me working by sloblocks off for years to find a winning system and at the same time apparently defying the law of averages :cry

[PAULM03]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy I see the purpose of a strategy as miximising your profits whilst minimising your risk. Anyone can pick a winner in the football, after all it's only a 3 horse race. But to make a reasonable profit long-term you have to make lots of bets, which implies taking lots of risk. The losing streak is therefore inevitable no matter how good a tipster you are, however if you have a sound strategy it won't be a problem.

[Datapunter]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy :welcome Clotty, great question, Step 1, determine your goal for betting. Determine why you want to do sports-betting. Is it just for fun, is it an investment, a hobby, something else. For now i'll assume it's a hobby you want to bring to a more serious level. Step 2, determine your betting bank. You need to set aside a specific amount of money you use to bet with. First of all it must be money you can afford to lose. I.e. money you don't need to pay the rent. Secondly you must ask yourself if you are actually willing to lose it. If you are betting with money you are not willing to lose betting will not 'feel' right. This is because you will be risking money and at the same time in the back of your head will be the nagging though 'i really shouldn't do this'. This will be at the expense of your objectivity and in a way it's a form of sabotaging yourself. So set the bank to a level you are comfortable with should you lose it. Step 3, determine your stake size You'll find hundreds of threads and dozens of books on staking, some general, some specific. For a beginner i recommend something simple: bet 1% of your bank on each individual bet. If you bet on odd-on favourites you may go to 2%. When betting of long-odds outsiders go to 0.5% . This may seems quite small be believe me you don't need a big % before the risk of bancruptcy becomes a reality. It will allow you to bet with real money at hardly any risk. In short you won't be paying much for your learning curve. There will be plenty of time to get into the subject of staking along the way. Step 4, record keeping. Set yourself up for accurate record keeping, spreadsheets being most efficient. This will allow you to be grounded in reality rather then what you think is so. The human mind is the worst record keepers; we tend to remember only what we want to remember. Accurate records will allow you to identify where you are successfull and were not so you can make adjustments in the right direction. Step 5, get organised. This is about setting up a betting environment that supports you in being successfull. First there is managing your finances. Assuming you are in the UK i suggest you open a bank account seperate from other finances and get a direct debit card for that account. Also look at using www.moneybookers.com and/or www.neteller.com as methods of transferring money. You'll need a range of accounts at different bookmakers. Getting a good price for whatever it is you bet on is essential and can make all the difference between profit or loss. Have a look in the bookmakers forum, plenty info there. In short if you start with the main UK bookmakers then add Pinnacle and Betfair you'll be fine. Step 6, determine a main betting strategy. Pick a main betting strategy, something you want to do for an extended period of time. No problem if you do other betting on the side but pick something you focus on, or specialise in. Then learn all you can about your betting arena; read books, betting sites, forums, etc... Maybe find someone here on PL that is into the same area and closely follow his progress. 2 know more than 1 ;) Then simply start betting. Get top price, keep accurate records and stick to the chosen strategy for a reasonable period of time before making a change. Then come back with the next series of questions :ok we like questions, we love questions, ( well i do :lol )

[Datapunter]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy P.S. Joe-something-or-other is called Joseph Buchdahl and he is a member on PL from the early days. Doesn't post much anymore but he's around. He runs 2 sites, www.football-data.co.uk where you can find historic information on soccer and www.1x2betting.co.uk where he focusses on a betting strategy involving soccer favourites. I have been following this strategy for over 1,5 years now with excellent success. See other thread in this forum. The 10£ mentioned will get you a PDF document describing the system. This document in itself is a jewel of information on sportsbetting and compulsory reading for anyone seriously into sportsbetting. Btw. the once in a lifetime 10£ is simply a way of limiting the number of people doing the system, don't be put off with that, you'll soon recover that by simply using the system.

[aliando]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy i agree with the above posts in that the move away from fun to serious gambling for me has seen the record keeping as a valuable resource - it can give you a good insight as to where your strengths and weaknesses are in order apply your own strategy to your style of winning.

[Clotty]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Thanks for all that info! I'll probably invest in the hot soccer favourites strategy, but won't buy any additional books. The way I see it, there are only a certain amount of things that can be said before they get repeated and what is in many books is probably in the forums somewhere too. I'm struggling to find any websites with dozens of articles on all aspects of betting or excel spreadsheets that I can keep my records in, though. Any suggestions would be apreciated.

[Datapunter]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Here you go, its basically a stripped down version of the sheet i'm using myself now. You can enter the bet details, your own stakes, compare to level stakes. The rest really is up to you to expand with whatever columns you want but this should get you started just fine. ( i'm up to about 40 columns with asian handicap, over/under, live or not, time of goals, percentage staking, plateau staking, someone please stop me please :loon ) First sheet enter the bet details, on the second sheet there is the calculation of strike rate and yield and the beginning of a chart :ok

conv_59.xls

[Clotty]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Thanks for that, it looks very useful, only a few flaws I can spot in the spreadsheet, but they can easily be ironed out. Once again, thanks.

[Datapunter]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy FLAWS :loon in MY spreadsheet :unsure never :dude what, where, how, :\

[Clotty]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Looking at various different systems, I've seen the retirement staking plan created by Barry Hughes and at first glance, it seems reasonable. It would take a ridiculous losing streak to empty the bank, however, at the losing streak continues, you need to bet at longer and longer odds which I find very worrying. I've also read about the Kelly Staking Plan. Are any of them worth attempting?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy

:loon Are you sure about this? If this were true the bookies would be out of business. Not to mention your obvious contradiction: "I tend to only use strategies when I can't find winners .." followed by "The law of averages says any half-decent system will find winners". Here's me working by sloblocks off for years to find a winning system and at the same time apparently defying the law of averages :cry

I meant what he said:

I see the purpose of a strategy as miximising your profits whilst minimising your risk. Anyone can pick a winner in the football, after all it's only a 3 horse race. But to make a reasonable profit long-term you have to make lots of bets, which implies taking lots of risk. The losing streak is therefore inevitable no matter how good a tipster you are, however if you have a sound strategy it won't be a problem.

I just didn't say it as well. :dude

[Geraldo]

Re: strategy vs. non-strategy Clotty I've used the Retirement Staking Plan for about 2 years. All I can say is that it works for me. However you do need a selection system which provides short losing runs and the winning odds need to match the original calculated odds, otherwise the stakes can mount up a bit. If things start to go awry I merely re-start the Plan, rather than soldier on ( I'm a bit cowardly when it comes to losing money ).