Lester's All Weather Challenge

[lester11]

I have decided to undertake a betting challenge for the rest of the AW season for three reasons: 1. I am not a fan of jump racing and so this will hopefully focus my attentions and strategies. 2. To put some money in my pocket. 3. To try and save myself from impending relegation in the DHRC!! The Aim I will start with a bank of 200 points. My aim is to make a 15% profit on turnover between now and the 18th March (recognised as the end of the AW season I believe). Over this period I must turnover at least 300 points (provided I don't blow the bank!) with the maximum liability being 10pts on any one individual horse and 20 pts for one particular day. I will generally use Betfair as my betting medium, but will occasionally use the traditional bookies when a better price can be obtained. A rate of 5% commission will be deducted from my Betfair profits. I will back to win/place and also lay and will attempt to use the market to hedge my bets when I believe the opportunity will arise. I will not bet on banded (class 7) meetings as I believe these races to be of such a poor standard that they are not worth risking my bank on. Generally I will only bet in races that are class 5 or higher. I will try to put my trades on this thread by midday on the day of races, with the prices that I am trying to obtain on selections and will update on the days progress later in the day or the following morning. Fridays Selections I am interested in a few of the horses in the 325: Grand Jour - Is searching for the hat-trick after making all on its last two starts at Lingfield. I am surprised that it has been put in as the early market fav as there are several unknowns today including a new track and step up in trip. In addition there is a rise in the weights and he seems too short at less than 2/1 on Betfair. I am looking to lay this horse at around 2.9 and then to hedge my bet hopefully with a bit of a price drift. Lay (Win) at 2.9 to 5pts (liability 9.5pts) Back (Win) at 3.5 to 4pts Moi Aussi - Top-weight here and vulnerable to tactics here, would be more confident at Southwell where the longer straight seems to suit. However should get the trip and in my opinion should be on equal terms in the market to Grand Jour. I believe he will be backed and so am looking to get on him and to potentially lay some off at a shorter price. Back (Win) at 4 to 4pts Lay (Win) at 3.5 to 2pts (liability 5pts) Archimboldo - I will have a little bit on this one who went well for Mark Prescott in the autumn and is not far behind the front two in the betting if showing any improvement in 4 months off and has run well first out before. Unknown on this surface but worth a small stake at big odds. Back (Win) at 25 to 0.5pts Back (Place) at 9 to 1 pts In the 355 I am going for Binanti. This horse might be slightly in the grip of the handicapper but has finished placed in its last three starts and is a course and distance winner off 2lbs lower. It is usually available at single figure odds but i was surprised to see that it was available on Betfair to back at 19 to win and 5.3 to place last night. I had a nibble but this had dropped this morning so took 16/1 E/W with betfred (this has now gone). Back (E/W) at 16/1 (17) to 1pt (2 in total) Back (Place) at 4.8 to 1pt

[Belly77]

Re: Lester's All Weather Challenge Good luck mate, I hope you have better luck then Leicester are :hope