NBA 18th

[TazaD]

Washington @ Orlando under 205 This total is way too high for a few reasons...1) Francis is back, 2) Orlando have played in some high scoring games recently, but all on the road, 3) The books have still to adjust to Washington playing some great defense. (allowing just 87.2 @ 42.8% in their last 5) The teams have met twice already this season...87-79 @ Washington & 91-83 @ Orlando... ...in fact only 1 of 18 Magic home games have gone over this number this season, and that was in OT! (The score was 88-88 at the end of reg.) They allow just 92.8 ppg at home, and the games av. 186.2! They also av. just 174.1 ppg on 2 days rest this season. Hill is doubtful for the game after re-agrevating his hernia last game, but even if he does play, this is just too many points.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA 18th Charlotte +9.5 League: 17-6 (Av. loss 6.4) away 5+ dog, 1 day off a 10+ ats loss as home 4- dog. [CBC] 11-2 (Av. loss 5.2) if opp is off any ats win...6-0 (Av. loss 3.5) if opp is off an away win. Neither teamat full strength here, but I think the loss of O'Neal out-weighs the Charlotte injuries. 10 points is a lot for this Indi team to win by. (Charlotte are 5-0 ats all-time v. Indi...whatever difference that makes! :D) Chicago -6 League: 52-49-1 (Av. loss 9.0) away 5+ dog, 1 day off a 10- ats loss as home 4- dog. [NYK] 4-12-1 (Av. loss 15.1) if opp is off an upset SU loss. Marbury is doubtful for NY, and the line is about 3 points too low, based mainly (I assume) on the assumption that New York is an improving team. Well, they are still just 4-14 on the road, and 9 of those losses have been by more than 6. Chicago started to turn their form around with 3 wins, topping 100 in all of them, but then ran into 3 good, solid defensive teams. And the defense will be the difference in this game...over the last 5 games NY have allowed 103.6 ppg @ 48.7%, Chicago just 94.6 @ 41.2. Chicago will get back on track with a decent win here. Clippers pk (2 units) League: 3-16-2 (Av. loss 4.4) away (-3 to +3), no rest off a 10+ ats loss as away 5+ fav. [suns] (inc. Pho 103-108 Wash last season) 1-13 (Av. loss 7.2) off a 15+ ats loss. 0-6 (Av. loss 8.7) off a 20+ ats loss. So you can see there is a direct correlation between last night's form to tonight's result for the Suns. The line is based on reputation and not results. League: 15-5 (Av. win 8.6) home (-3 to +3), 1 day off any OT as home 4- fav. [LAC] 11-1 (Av. win 10.5!) if total 190+ ...4-0 (Av. win 11.0!) if total 200+. The totals here show that although both teams are expected to score, only one does. LAC allow 92.7 ppg at just 40.8% shooting at home, but Phoenix allow 103.8 @ 45.3 on the road. The Clippers are 13-5 SU at home this season, and have already defeated Phoenix 101-91. Brand was huge in that game, and should be again, as there is no-one for the Suns really capable of shutting him down.