VALUE ALERT! Finnish presidential elections

[Warbirds]

Hi everyone I understand that this is definitely not one of the largest markets out there but for once I have a good reason to contribute. The 1st round of the Finnish presidential elections was held tonight. Betfair have had this market up for a while already and current president Tarja Halonen has been largely favourite. It was widely believed until recently that she would win directly after the 1st round. As a matter of fact odds on Halonen winning went down to 1.01 atr some point.. However the polls have shown her popularity steadily decreasing and we saw tonight that altough she finished ahead after the first round the easy success expected did not happen. Tonight's results are in:

Ehdokas	Kannatus
Tarja Halonen	46,3 %
Sauli Niinistö	24,1 %
Matti Vanhanen	18,6 %
Heidi Hautala	3,5 %
Timo Soini	3,4 %
Bjarne Kallis	2,0 %
Henrik Lax	1,6 %
Arto Lahti	0,4 %

This means we go to the second round, and that Halonen has lost several points of popularity very quickly. Niinistö has gained recently, and will be able to count on Vanhanen's votes after he said he would subsequently support Niinistö. Roughly we would have Halonen 46,3% and Niinistö 42,7% without yet counting the votes from the smaller candidates.. Currently on Betfair you can lay Halonen at 1,12 and back Niinistö at 9!! Admittingly Halonen is still (albeit slightly) favourite but she surely hasn't 89% chances in winning this any longer! :nana Sorry if I bored you, sounds like a great opportunity to me especially in terms of trading.. :tongue2 Fred

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: VALUE ALERT! Finnish presidential elections Sounds like a good spot and a great post Fred. :ok